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About Chellaney

Professor, strategic thinker, author and commentator

How to salvage climate change negotiations

EARTH IN THE BALANCE

Confronting the Geopolitics of Climate Change

Brahma Chellaney

Project Syndicate

International climate-change negotiations are to be renewed this year. To be successful, they must heed the lessons of last December’s Copenhagen summit.

The first lesson is that climate change is a matter not only of science, but also of geopolitics. The expectation at Copenhagen that scientific research would trump geopolitics was misguided. Without an improved geopolitical strategy, there can be no effective fight against climate change.

The second lesson from Copenhagen is that to get a binding international agreement, there first must be a deal between the United States and China. These two countries are very dissimilar in many respects, but not in their carbon profiles: each accounts for between 22% and 24% of all human-generated greenhouse gases in the world. If a deal can be reached between the world’s two greatest polluting nations, which together are responsible for more than 46% of all greenhouse-gas emissions, an international accord on climate change would be easier to reach.

In Copenhagen, China cleverly deflected pressure by hiding behind small, poor countries and forging a negotiating alliance, known as the BASIC bloc, with three other major developing countries – India, Brazil, and South Africa. The BASIC bloc, however, is founded on political opportunism, and thus is unlikely to hold together for long. The carbon profiles of Brazil, India, South Africa, and China are wildly incongruent. For example, China’s per-capita carbon emissions are more than four times higher than India’s.

China rejects India’s argument that per-capita emission levels and historic contributions of greenhouse gases should form the objective criteria for carbon mitigation. China, as the factory to the world, wants a formula that marks down carbon intensity linked to export industries. As soon as the struggle to define criteria for mitigation action commences in future negotiations, this alliance will quickly unravel.

A third lesson from Copenhagen is the need for a more realistic agenda. Too much focus has been put on carbon cuts for nearly two decades, almost to the exclusion of other elements. It is now time to disaggregate the climate-change agenda into smaller, more manageable parts. After all, a lot can be done without a binding agreement that sets national targets on carbon cuts.

Consider energy efficiency, which can help bring one-quarter of all gains in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Energy inefficiency is a problem not only in the Third World, but also in the developed world. The US, for instance, belches out twice as much CO2 per capita as Japan, although the two countries have fairly similar per-capita incomes.

Furthermore, given that deforestation accounts for as much as 20% of the emission problem, carbon storage is as important as carbon cuts. Each hectare of rainforest, for example, stores 500 tons of CO2. Forest conservation and management thus are crucial to tackling climate change. In fact, to help lessen the impact of climate change, states need to strategically invest in ecological restoration – growing and preserving rainforests, building wetlands, and shielding species critical to our ecosystems.

The international community must also focus on stemming man-made environmental change. Environmental change is distinct from climate change, although there is a tendency on the part of some enthusiasts to blur the distinction and turn global warming into a blame-all phenomenon.

Man-made environmental change is caused by reckless land use, overgrazing, depletion and contamination of surface freshwater resources, overuse of groundwater, degradation of coastal ecosystems, inefficient or environmentally unsustainable irrigation practices, waste mismanagement, and the destruction of natural habitats. Such environmental change has no link to global warming. Yet, ultimately, it will contribute to climate variation and thus must be stopped.

Climate change and environmental change, given their implications for resource security and social and economic stability, are clearly threat multipliers. While continuing to search for a binding international agreement, the international community should also explore innovative approaches, such as global public-private partnership initiatives.

As the international community’s experience since the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, it is easier to set global goals than to implement them. The non-binding political commitments reached in principle at Copenhagen already have run into controversy as well as varying interpretations, dimming the future of the so-called “Copenhagen Accord,” an ad hoc, face-saving agreement stitched together at the eleventh hour to cover up the summit’s failure. Only 55 of the 194 countries submitted their national action plans by the accord’s January 31 deadline.

The climate-change agenda has become so politically driven that important actors have tagged onto it all sorts of competing interests, economic and otherwise. That should not have been allowed to happen, but it has, and there can be no way forward unless and until we confront that fact.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.
http://www.project-syndicate.org

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India’s missing hard power

One missile to rule them all

Developing intercontinental ballistic missiles is crucial if India is to have credible deterrence and power-projection force as it aspires to become a global power

Brahma Chellaney

Mint newspaper, April 21, 2010

With China engaged in ambitious missile force modernization and the US building new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as part of its “Prompt Global Strike” programme, the question we need to ask is: When will India develop its first ICBM? Without such capability, India has little hope of emerging as a major power.

ICBMs are the idiom of power in international relations. Even as economic might plays a greater role in shaping international power equations, hard power remains central both for national deterrence and for power-projection force capability. For example, all countries armed with intercontinental-range weaponry hold permanent seats in the United Nations Security Council, and all aspirants for new permanent seats have regionally confined military capabilities.

India has glaring deficiencies on both the deterrence and power-projection fronts. It urgently needs a delivery capability that can underpin its doctrine of minimum but credible nuclear deterrence. The current heavy reliance on long-range bomber aircraft is antithetical to a credible deterrence posture.
Such a posture bereft of long-range missile reach only helps typecast India as a subcontinental power. In fact, in the absence of “strategic” or long-range missile systems, India’s deterrent capability remains sub-strategic.

If India seriously desires to project power far beyond its shores in order to play an international role commensurate with its size, it cannot do without ICBMs. Indeed, the only way India can break out from the confines of its neighbourhood is to develop intercontinental-range weaponry. With its current type of military capabilities, India will continue to be seen as a regional power with great-power pretensions.

To embark on an ICBM programme, India needs to shed its strategic diffidence. The National Democratic Alliance government told Parliament: “India has the capability to design and develop ICBMs. However, in consonance with the threat perception, no ICBM development project has been undertaken.” That policy inexplicably remains unchanged under the United Progressive Alliance government, even as India faces a growing threat from the new ICBMs in China’s increasingly sophisticated missile armoury.

An ICBM has a range of 5,500km and more. Rather than aim for a technological leap through a crash ICBM programme, India remains stuck in the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) arena, where its frog-like paces have taken it—more than two decades after the first Agni test—to Agni III, a sub-strategic missile still not deployed. Even the Agni V project, now on the drawing board, falls short of the ICBM range.

No nation can be a major power without three key attributes: (1) a high level of autonomous and innovative technological capability; (2) a capacity to meet basic defence needs indigenously; and (3) a capability to project power far beyond its borders, especially through intercontinental-range weaponry.

India is today the world’s largest importer of conventional weapons, ordering weapons worth at least $5 billion per year. Far from making the nation stronger, such large arms imports underscore the manner in which the country is depleting its meagre defence resources and eroding its conventional military edge. The Indian military today can achieve many missions, including repulsing an aggression and inflicting substantial losses on invaders. It can even carry out limited pre-emptive or punitive action and fend off counteraction. But it cannot do what any major military should be trained and equipped for—decisively win a war against an aggressor state.

The reason is not hard to find: Modernization outlays mainly go not to develop the country’s own armament production base, but to subsidize the military-industrial complex of others through import of weapons, some of questionable value. None of the weapon mega deals India has signed in recent years will arm its military with the leading edge it needs in an increasingly volatile and uncertain regional security environment.

Its military asymmetry with China has grown to the extent that it has fostered disturbing fecklessness in India’s China policy, best illustrated by external affairs minister S.M. Krishna’s recent Beijing visit. And in the absence of a reliable nuclear deterrent, India has become ever more dependent on conventional weapon imports. Among large states in the world, India is the only one that relies on imports to meet even basic defence needs.

Last year’s launch of the country’s first nuclear-powered submarine, INS Arihant, for underwater trials received a lot of media attention. A nuclear-powered, ballistic missile-carrying submarine (known as SSBN) is essential for India to bridge the yawning gap in its deterrent force against China. But even if everything goes well, India’s first SSBN will be deployed in the years ahead with a non-strategic weapon—a 700km submarine-launched ballistic missile now under development. That would further underpin the regional character of India’s deterrence.

Without hard power, India will continue to punch far below its weight and be mocked at by critics. One well-known India baiter, journalist Barbara Crossette, claims: “…today’s India is an international adolescent, a country of outsize ambition but anemic influence.” That India still does not have an ICBM project—even on the drawing board—is a troubling commentary about the lack of strategic prudence. China built its first ICBM even before Deng Xiaoping initiated economic modernization in 1978. A generation later, the Indian leadership has yet to grasp international power realities.

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.

China-based cyber spying

Cyber-warrior China opens new front against India

Brahma Chellaney

The Sunday Guardian, April 11, 2010

The detailed report released by a group of Canadian researchers on how a
China-based cyber spying ring has been systematically stealing top Indian
defence and security secrets for a number of months has spotlighted the growing
cyber threat
India
confronts.
It is unlikely that the
hackers are private individuals with no links to the Chinese government.
Private
individuals are unlikely to engage in systematic pilferage of defence secrets
of a rival country over an extended period.

Let’s
be clear: The Chinese hackers are
an irregular force of the People’s Liberation
Army. In war, this force will become the vanguard behind which the conventional
PLA divisions will take on
India.
In other words, the regular PLA forces will wage war after the cyber
warriors have caused serious damage to the enemy to defend itself.

Cyberwarfare and cross-border terrorism are the two main
frontiers of asymmetrical warfare. In both, irregular or non-state actors are
employed by a state to wage attacks on another country. The sponsoring state
then feigns ignorance of the attacks carried out at its behest. Just as
Pakistan pretends Lashkar-e-Taiba is not its
front against
India, China claims
the Chengdu-based cyber ring is not its spying arm. In both cases, the enemy
hides behind a cover, underscoring the asymmetrical nature of the warfare.

With national security and
prosperity today dependent on the safekeeping of cyberspace, including the
virtual movement of finance and the flow of security data and other secrets,
cybercrime must be effectively countered as a priority.

The cyber
threat from
China
is at two levels. The first is national, as manifest from the
cyber
attacks already carried out in recent years against
India’s National Infomatics
Centre (NIC)
systems and the
ministry of external affairs. The previous national security adviser disclosed
that his own office computers had been hacked by the Chinese. The aim of such
attacks has been to
engage in espionage and
also to overawe the Indian establishment.

By scanning and mapping India’s
official computer systems,
China
is able to both steal secrets and gain an asymmetrical advantage over its
rival. Intermittent cyber intrusion in peacetime allows
China to read
the content and understand the relative importance of different Indian networks
so that in a war, it knows what to disable in order to inflict pain and
punishment.

The second type of cyber threat from China is aimed at the individual
level. Individual targets in
India
range from the functionaries of the Tibetan government-in-exile and Tibetan
activists to Indian writers and others critical of
China. The most-common type of
intrusion
is an attempt to hack into the e-mail
accounts of targeted individuals. Often the targets are subjected to the
so-called Trojan horse attacks by e-mail that are intended to breach their
computers and allow the infiltrators to remotely remove, corrupt or transfer
files.

At a time when China-based
cyber attacks are ramping up in the world, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton was right to recently declare that an attack on one nation’s computer
networks “can be an attack on all.” Singling out
China for its Internet censorship,
Mrs. Clinton warned that “a new information curtain is descending across much
of the world.” Her statement’s
Cold War undertones — likening the
“information curtain” to the Iron Curtain — amounted to an implicit admission
that
the central assumption guiding U.S. policy on China
since the 1990s has gone awry: that assisting
China’s economic rise would usher
in political opening there.

The strategy
to use market forces and the Internet to open up a closed political system
simply isn’t working.
Indeed, the more economic power China has accumulated, the more
adept it has become in extending censorship controls to cyberspace.
China deploys tens of thousands of “cyber police” who
block Web sites, patrol cyber-cafes, monitor the use of cellular phones and
track down Internet activists.

But the threat to countries
like
India comes not from
what
China
does domestically. Rather, it comes from the manner the experience, information
and knowhow gained in fashioning domestic cyber oversight is proving invaluable
to
China
to engage in cyber intrusion across its frontiers.

The Canadian researchers, who had earlier
uncovered a
vast Chinese surveillance system called “Ghostnet” that
could
automatically scan overseas computer
networks and transfer documents
to a digital storage facility in China,
have revealed in their latest report that the origin of the attacks against
Indian targets was Chengdu, which is also the headquarters of the PLA’s signal
intelligence (SIGINT) bureau. The Chengdu SIGINT station in
China’s Sichuan
province is specifically tasked to monitor
India.

Chinese hackers often try to camouflage the
point of origin of their attacks. They do so by routing their attacks
through
the computers of a third country, like
Taiwan
or
Russia or Cuba.
Just as some Chinese pharmaceutical firms have exported to Africa spurious
medicines with “Made in
India
label — a fact admitted by
Beijing
— some Chinese hackers are known to have routed their cyber intrusion through third
countries. But like their comrades in the pharmaceutical industry, such hackers
tend to leave telltale signs. But in the case of the India-directed cyber ring
that has just been uncovered, it was ensconced in
China itself and openly operating
from there.

Despite its information-technology
skills,
India
lacks offensive or defensive capabilities in cyberwarfare. It has developed no
effective means to shield its cyber infrastructure from the pervasive attacks
that are being carried out in recent years
in search of competitive
intelligence
and to unnerve
the Indian establishment.

India’s cyber vulnerability holds major
implications in a war situation. In peacetime,
China
is intimidating
India
through intermittent cyber warfare, even as it steps up military pressure along
the Himalayan frontier. In a conflict,
China could cripple major Indian
systems through cyber attacks. With cyber attacks against Indian government,
defence and commercial targets ramping up, the protection of sensitive computer
networks must become a major national-security priority.

One mode of asymmetrical
warfare —
Pakistan’s
unceasing export of terrorism — has traumatized
India for long. It should not allow
itself to get similarly battered on the new frontier of asymmetrical warfare
China
has opened over the past five years.  On both fronts, state actors are
employing non-state actors.

The costs for India to fight
two asymmetrical wars simultaneously will be high.
India should treat the Canadian
report as a wake-up call to plug its vulnerabilities by developing appropriate
countermeasures. At the same time, it should have the capability to take the battle
to the enemy’s camp. Offence is often the best form of defence.

Seven key revisions needed in India’s nuclear-accident liability bill

HOT POTATO

BRAHMA CHELLANEY, STRATEGIC AFFAIRS EXPERT

Revisions in N-liability bill a must

DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY MOLLYCODDLING, THERE ARE NO RISKS FOR FIRMS ENTERING INDIAN MARKET, ONLY PROFITS TO RAKE IN

The Economic Times, April 6, 2010 http://u.nu/35v48

After
the national furore, the government has begun to redraft its nuclear-accident
liability Bill. It was left with little choice: Unlike the 123 agreement or the
latest reprocessing accord with the
US, the proposed new law on
liability has to go before Parliament for scrutiny and approval.

The
Bill it circulated to members of Parliament last month attempted to
fashion a new principle in
international law: Profits are private, accident-related liabilities are all
public. The Bill gave foreign reactor suppliers a free ride at the Indian
taxpayer’s expense.

Limits on
liability traditionally have been designed in the world to limit the financial
risks of private firms engaged in the business of nuclear-generated
electricity. But in
India
the state intends to own and operate all nuclear power plants. That is the
reason why the Atomic Energy Act, which shuts out the private sector from
nuclear power generation, is not being amended.

But foreign
reactor suppliers cannot complain because they are in an exceptionally happy
situation. The Indian government has earmarked separate nuclear parks for each
of the two American reactor-exporting firms as well as for the sole French and
Russian companies. It is acquiring land for them. It also is freeing them from
the task of generating electricity at marketable rates. The government will run
the reactors through the state operator, subsidizing the high-priced
electricity generated. To top it all, foreign suppliers will have no
direct accident liability.

So, given this
extraordinary mollycoddling, there are no risks for foreign firms in entering
the Indian market, only profits to rake in.

Against
this background, the liability Bill must contain seven essential revisions.

■One, there
is no need for a limit on liability as the Indian state, in any case, will be
the sole owner and operator. There is no maximum cap on liability in the
US, Germany,
Finland, Japan, South Korea
and
Switzerland.
The proposed Indian law must mesh with the doctrine of absolute liability and
“polluter pays” principle set by the Supreme Court in response to the
Bhopal gas disaster.

■Two, the
minimum cap should reflect the international trend of providing enough to deal
with the long-term public health problems likely to be caused by a nuclear
accident. For example,
Japan’s minimum liability is 120 billion yen ($1.33 billion).

Three, the revised Bill
should not relieve foreign companies of direct liability for any accident. Nor
should
victims be stripped of their right to sue a culpable foreign firm
in an Indian court, or through a foreign court.

India ought to follow the example set by US law, which
permits “economic channelling,” but not “legal channelling,” of liability,
thereby allowing civil suits against any party in
courts. That is the main reason why the
US
has not joined the
Vienna or Paris convention — the two main international
liability instruments. But the
U.S.
has become party to the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC), which
is still not in force. The CSC,
as the name
suggests,
is about compensation, to be paid
“supplementary” to the liability limit. The CSC permits either “economic
channelling”
or “legal channelling” of liability.

Why
shouldn’t
India emulate the US example and
permit economic (but not legal) channelling of liability to the operator? That
will leave suppliers (foreign or Indian) legally liable for an accident, but
allow for speedy disbursement of compensation to victims following an accident.

■Four, the
Indian taxpayer ought to be the insurer of last resort, not of first resort. In
the existing Bill, all liability falls on the Indian taxpayer, whether it is
the state operator’s slice or the Central Government’s share. By contrast,
America’s Price-Anderson
system is without cost to the American taxpayer. It ensures that there is at
least $10.5 billion in private-sector funds available to cover a nuclear
accident. As the
US
has no cap on liability, the US Congress serves as the insurer of last resort.
If a catastrophic accident were to occur, Congress could raise its contribution
not by burdening the taxpayer but by imposing additional taxes and other levies
on the nuclear industry.

■Five, the
new Bill must do away with the specious distinction between the operator and
the government when, in the Indian context, both are fused. Throughout the
existing Bill, the pretence of a US-style separation between the operator and
the government in maintained.

■Six, the
powers of
Indian courts must not be curtailed.
Under the existing Bill, all nuclear-damage claims will be dealt with by a
Claims Commissioner or a Nuclear Damage Claims Commission, and any award made
“shall be final” and cannot be appealed in any court. Indeed, it declares that
“no civil court shall have jurisdiction to entertain any suit or proceedings” or
grant any “injunction.”

■Seven, while
limiting
liability in time, the Bill must set a
more reasonable timeline, given that damage to health from exposure to severe
radiation can be transmitted to future generations. The 10-year time limit set
in Clause 18 of the existing Bill is simply
untenable.

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic
studies at the Centre for Policy Research.

Shutting out Parliament from scrutinizing nuclear deal

Bypassing Parliament

Brahma Chellaney  DNA newspaper, April 2, 2010

One more accord has been concluded under the much-trumpeted Indo-US nuclear deal. But like the previous two —the 123 bilateral agreement with the US and the safeguards accord with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — the latest agreement, too, will escape scrutiny by the Indian Parliament. The newest agreement involves US consent to India to reprocess spent fuel of American origin.


Is it a good advertisement for the world’s most-populous democracy that while the American president will submit the reprocessing agreement to the US Congress for scrutiny, the Indian Parliament will again be shut out from playing any role on this latest accord? How can there be effective checks and balances in a democracy if the executive branch insists that the national legislature has no role to play in any international agreement?

It is only on the nuclear-accident liability issue that the government is coming to Parliament because that involves passing a new law. In fact, it wants Parliament to pass a law that limits liability to a pittance, overturning the doctrine of absolute liability that the Supreme Court has set in response to the Bhopal gas disaster. 

The result of blocking Parliament from scrutinizing the nuclear deal is that India is now saddled with a deal that does not adequately protect its interests. India has got no legally binding fuel-supply guarantee to avert a Tarapur-style fuel cutoff, and no right to withdraw from its obligations under any circumstance, although the US has reserved the right for itself to suspend or terminate the arrangements.

The terms of the latest reprocessing agreement are in continuation of what the US was able to extract in the 123 bilateral agreement. The US has retained the right to unilaterally suspend its grant of reprocessing consent to India. This is an extension of its right, incorporated in the 123 agreement, to unilaterally suspend or terminate fuel supply to India. That is exactly what the US did in the mid-70s under its previous 123 agreement with India dating back to 1963. As a result, the twin-reactor, US-built Tarapur nuclear power plant near Mumbai, was left high and dry.

In the newest 123 agreement, the US has retained the legal right to unilaterally terminate cooperation but provided political assurances to India that such a right will be exercised only in extraordinary circumstances. A similar approach is mirrored in the reprocessing accord.

Under article 7 of the reprocessing accord, the reprocessing consent can be suspended on grounds of “national security” or a “serious threat to the physical protection of the facility or of the nuclear material at the facility,” and if the party determines “that suspension is an unavoidable measure.” So the US right to suspend reprocessing consent is unfettered.

Still, the agreement’s article 7 and the accompanying “agreed minute” record political assurances to India that such a right shall be exercised only in special circumstances and after careful thought. But such assurances hold little value when the legal right to suspend reprocessing consent is explicitly recorded in the text.

The actual implementation of the reprocessing agreement is years away, even though US-origin spent fuel has been accumulating in India for nearly 40 years at Tarapur.

India will not be able to reprocess that spent fuel until it has built at least one new dedicated reprocessing facility — a process that will take a number of years. Article 1(3) specifies that the US consent relates to “two new national reprocessing facilities established by the government of India.” Only in those new facilities, approved by the IAEA, can India reprocess the discharged fuel under international inspection. Any additional reprocessing facility can be added only with prior US agreement.

Another feature of the agreement is that it amplifies India’s reprocessing obligations with the IAEA, including to provide facility-design information in advance and to allow unhindered international monitoring and verification (article 2). But in addition, the accompanying “agreed minute” obligates India to permit US “consultations visits” to each dedicated reprocessing facility. Every “visiting team of not more than 10 persons” will be permitted onsite access “at a time and duration mutually agreed by the parties.”

It is thus apparent that the US has got what it wanted. For example, the state department had earlier notified the US Congress in writing that “the proposed arrangements and procedures with India will provide for withdrawal of reprocessing consent” by the US. That is exactly what the text of the accord provides. Also by providing for US “consultations visits,” it effectively permits IAEA-plus inspections.

Had the Parliament been allowed to play a role, the government would have been able to leverage that to fight back one-sided provisions.

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.

(c) DNA, 2010.

Full official text and key features of U.S.-India reprocessing agreement

Reprocessing-related arrangements and procedures agreed between the United States and India

KEY FEATURES:

The actual implementation of the agreement is years away, even though U.S.-origin spent fuel has been accumulating in India for nearly 40 years at the U.S.-built Tarapur nuclear power station near Mumbai. India will not be able to reprocess that spent fuel until it has built at least one new dedicated reprocessing facility — a process that will take a number of years. Article 1(3) specifies that the U.S. consent relates to “two new national reprocessing facilities established by the Government of India.” Only in those new facilities, approved by the IAEA, can India reprocess the discharged fuel under international inspection. Any additional reprocessing facility can be added only with prior U.S. agreement.

The United States has retained the right to unilaterally suspend the grant of reprocessing consent to India. This is an extension of its right, incorporated in the 123 bilateral agreement, to unilaterally suspend or terminate fuel supply or all civil nuclear cooperation with India. In fact, that is exactly what the United States did in the mid-1970s under its previous 123 agreement with India dating back to 1963. As a result of that action, the twin-reactor Tarapur plant was left high and dry.  In the newest 123 agreement, the U.S. has retained the legal right to unilaterally terminate cooperation but has provided political assurances to India that such a right will be exercised only in extraordinary circumstances. A similar approach is mirrored in the reprocessing accord.  

Under Article 7 of the reprocessing accord, the reprocessing consent can be suspended on grounds of “national security” or a “serious threat to the physical protection of the facility or of the nuclear material at the facility,” and if the party determines “that suspension is an unavoidable measure.” So the U.S. right to suspend reprocessing consent in unfettered. Still, the agreement’s Article 7 and the accompanying Agreed Minute record political assurances to India that such a right shall be exercised only in special circumstances and after careful thought. But such assurances can hold little value when the legal right to suspend reprocessing consent is explicitly recorded in the text.

It is noteworthy that the U.S. has retained the right to suspend all cooperation with India, including the withdrawal of reprocessing consent, if India were to carry out a nuclear test. The assurances that have been recorded relate only to "peaceful" nuclear activities and fuel choices by India. For example, the Agreed Minute states that the reference to “serious national security concerns” as a basis for suspension of reprocessing consent shall not mean or be the basis for "addressing differences between the parties on the nature of peaceful nuclear activities," or "addressing differences with regard to fuel cycle choices," or "the purpose of securing commercial advantage," or "the purpose of delaying, hampering or hindering peaceful nuclear activities of the other party." The United States thus can continue to hold India to a no-test obligation.

Another feature of the agreement is that it amplifies India’s reprocessing obligations with the IAEA, including to provide facility-design information in advance and to allow unhindered international monitoring and verification (Article 2). But in addition, the accompanying Agreed Minute obligates India to permit U.S. “consultations visits” to each dedicated reprocessing facility. Every “visiting team of not more than 10 persons” will be permitted on-site access “at a time and duration mutually agreed by the parties.”

►The agreement relates only to U.S. reprocessing consent, not to transfer of reprocessing technology and equipment. Unlike America’s arrangements with Japan and Euratom, the arrangements with India (as reflected in the 123 bilateral agreement and the domestic Hyde Act) exclude transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology even under international safeguards. 

►The agreement does not provide for an international arbitral tribunal to resolve any differences or disputes — a provision found in the U.S.-Japan arrangements. It only provides for bilateral consultations — a mechanism where the cards will be stacked in favor of the supplier state and against the recipient state. Any compensation payable to India for a unilateral U.S. suspension of reprocessing consent will depend entirely on American willingness to do so. The agreement states that, "In case the suspension extends beyond a period of six months, both parties shall enter into consultations on compensation for the adverse impact on the Indian economy due to disruption in electricity generation and loss on account of disruption of contractual obligations." So, the agreement is to "consult" over compensation, not to actually compensate India. If the U.S. eventually agrees to pay any compensation, the amount will be determined by it.  

India’s obligations remain in perpetuity. U.S. suspension of reprocessing consent will not free India of any of its obligations under the 123 agreement. This is recorded in Article 7(8). That, again, is an extension of what the 123 agreement states explicitly.

►The agreement employs the term, "U.S.-obligated," instead of "U.S.-origin," nuclear material to help broaden coverage. Because U.S.-built reactors and the dedicated reprocessing facilities would be both under IAEA safeguards, India could in the event the U.S. cut off fuel supply and suspended reprocessing consent use other foreign-origin fuel to run those plants and then reprocess their discharged fuel. To preclude that possibility, the term, "U.S.-obligated," has been used in the reprocessing agreement to include the use of both U.S.-origin reactors and U.S.-origin fuel. So, if the U.S. were to suspend its fuel shipments and reprocessing consent, India would not be able to reprocess spent fuel of other foreign origin. That helps increase the costs for India of any suspension.

In sum, India has a deal under which it got no legally binding fuel-supply guarantee to avert a Tarapur-style fuel cut-off; no irrevocable reprocessing consent; and no right to withdraw from its obligations under any circumstance, although the U.S. has reserved the right for itself to suspend or terminate the arrangements if it holds India not to be in compliance with the stipulated terms. Moreover, the continuation of the deal will hinge on India not conducting a nuclear test ever again. These are the four "no"s embedded in the deal.

In fact, this is the first case in world history where one nuclear-weapons state has used a civilian cooperation deal to impose a weapons-related prohibition on another nuclear-weapons state, which has only a rudimentary nuclear military capability. It is apparent that chances are virtually zero of India ever becoming a nuclear-weapons power in the same league as China, the U.S., Britain, France and Russia, in terms of having an intercontinental-range thermonuclear capability. India, at best, can be a second-tier nuclear-weapons state that in due course would, hopefully, develop sufficient but regionally-confined nuclear capability to deter its main security challenge, China.

As far as the reprocessing accord is concerned, the U.S. has got what it wanted. For example, the State Department had earlier notified Congress in writing that “the proposed arrangements and procedures with India will provide for withdrawal of reprocessing consent” by the U.S. That is exactly what the text of the accord provides. Also by providing for U.S. “consultations visits,” the accord effectively permits IAEA-plus inspections.

That means the U.S. Congress is unlikely to exercise the right to reject the reprocessing accord through a joint resolution of disapproval passed by both chambers — a high bar in any case. Section 201 (titled "Procedures Regarding a Subsequent Arrangement on Reprocessing") of the U.S. legislation ratifying the nuclear deal with India, the 2008 United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act, reads as follows:

(a) In General- Notwithstanding section 131 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (42 U.S.C. 2160), no proposed subsequent arrangement concerning arrangements and procedures regarding reprocessing or other alteration in form or content, as provided for in Article 6 of the Agreement, shall take effect until the requirements specified in subsection (b) are met.

(b) Requirements- The requirements referred to in subsection (a) are the following:

(1) The President transmits to the appropriate congressional committees a report containing–

(A) the reasons for entering into such proposed subsequent arrangement;

(B) a detailed description, including the text, of such proposed subsequent arrangement; and

(C) a certification that the United States will pursue efforts to ensure that any other nation that permits India to reprocess or otherwise alter in form or content nuclear material that the nation has transferred to India or nuclear material and by-product material used in or produced through the use of nuclear material, non-nuclear material, or equipment that it has transferred to India requires India to do so under similar arrangements and procedures.

(2) A period of 30 days of continuous session (as defined by section 130 g.(2) of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (42 U.S.C. 2159 (g)(2)) has elapsed after transmittal of the report required under paragraph (1).

(c) Resolution of Disapproval- Notwithstanding the requirements in subsection (b) having been met, a subsequent arrangement referred to in subsection (a) shall not become effective if during the time specified in subsection (b)(2), Congress adopts, and there is enacted, a joint resolution stating in substance that Congress does not favor such subsequent arrangement. Any such resolution shall be considered pursuant to the procedures set forth in section 130 i. of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (42 U.S.C. 2159 (i)), as amended by section 205 of this Act.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

FULL OFFICIAL TEXT: "Arrangements and Procedures Agreed Between the Government of the United States and the Government of India, Pursuant to Article 6(iii) of Their Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy" (text released on March 29, 2010)

The Government of the United States of America and the Government of India (hereinafter “the Parties”), pursuant to the Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, with Agreed Minute, signed at Washington, on October 10, 2008 (“the Agreement for Cooperation”), which entered into force on December 6, 2008.

CONSIDERING the commitment to full civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy as noted in Article 6 of the Agreement for Cooperation;

NOTING that cooperation under the Agreement for Cooperation is between two States possessing advanced nuclear technology, both Parties having the same benefits and advantages, both committed to preventing WMD proliferation;

DESIRING to implement the provisions of Article 6(iii) of the Agreement for Cooperation concerning arrangements and procedures for the reprocessing or other alteration in form or content of nuclear material transferred pursuant to the Agreement for Cooperation and nuclear material and by-product material used in or produced through the use of nuclear material, non-nuclear material, or equipment so transferred;

NOTING that the “Agreement between the Government of India and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards to Civilian Nuclear Facilities” (INFCIRC/754)(“India-Specific Safeguards Agreement”), which provides for safeguards on reprocessing plants, entered into force on May 11, 2009;

Have agreed on the following arrangements and procedures under which such reprocessing or other alteration in form or content may take place in India at two new national reprocessing facilities dedicated to reprocessing safeguarded nuclear material under International Atomic Energy Agency (“IAEA”) safeguards, including future expansion, modifications, renovations or additions thereto;

ARTICLE 1 – NOTIFICATION AND EFFECTIVENESS OF RIGHT TO REPROCESS

1. The Government of India shall notify the Government of the United States of America in writing that it has established a facility (“the Facility”). The notification shall contain:

a. the name of the owner or operator of the Facility;

b. the name, type and location of the Facility and its planned capacity;

c. confirmation that pursuant to Paragraph 14(a) of the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement, as referenced in Article 10(2) of the Agreement for Cooperation, India has notified the Facility to the IAEA for application of IAEA safeguards and that relevant safeguards arrangements have been agreed pursuant to the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA;

d. such information as is available to the Government of India on the IAEA safeguards approach that is not classified as “Safeguards Confidential”; and

e. a confirmation that physical protection measures as required by Article 8 of the Agreement for Cooperation will be applied at the Facility.

Both Parties confirm that the provisions of this Article or any subsequent Article of these Arrangements and Procedures shall not be used to secure any proprietary or commercially sensitive information about the Facility.

2. The Government of the United States of America shall provide an acknowledgement to the Government of India no later than thirty days after receipt of the notification. This acknowledgement shall be limited to a statement that the notification has been received.

3. It is understood that the phrase “the Facility” throughout these Arrangements and Procedures is intended to refer to two new national reprocessing facilities established by the Government of India to reprocess U.S.-obligated nuclear material and any other safeguarded nuclear material and dedicated to the reprocessing and, as required, other alteration in form or content of safeguarded nuclear material under IAEA safeguards, as well as any additional new national facilities established and agreed to in accordance with paragraph 4 of this Article.

4. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of India understand the need for sufficient indigenous Indian capacity to reprocess or otherwise alter in form or content, under IAEA safeguards, U.S.-obligated nuclear material subject to the Agreement for Cooperation. Based on this understanding, the Parties agree to pursue the steps necessary, consistent with their national laws, to permit reprocessing or alteration in form or content of nuclear material subject to the Agreement for Cooperation at one or more new additional national facilities in India, (beyond the two facilities provided for in these Arrangements and Procedures) established by the Government of India and dedicated to the reprocessing and, as required, other alteration in form or content of safeguarded nuclear material under IAEA safeguards. These Arrangements and Procedures shall apply to such facilities upon successful completion of these steps, unless otherwise agreed by the Parties.

ARTICLE 2 – IAEA SAFEGUARDS

1. Consistent with the provisions of the Agreement for Cooperation, the Government of India shall offer the Facility for the application of IAEA safeguards as per the provisions of the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement. For the timely detection of withdrawal of safeguarded nuclear material from civilian use, safeguards measures shall include, as specified by the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement, nuclear material accountancy, design review, verification, progress in construction, appropriate containment and surveillance systems, process monitoring and other measures as may be agreed with the IAEA.

2. The Government of India shall ensure that the following minimum requirements, consistent with paragraph 37 of the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement, for the implementation of IAEA safeguards at the Facility are fulfilled:

a. Facility Design

i. Early Provision of Design Information.

The operator of the Facility shall co-operate with the IAEA by providing design information at the earliest possible time as provided in Paragraph 40 of the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement.

ii. Effective Design Review.

India and the operator of the Facility, as appropriate, shall cooperate with the IAEA in allowing “design information verification” (DIV) activities.

iii. Incorporation of Design Features that Facilitate Safeguards.

As may be required by the IAEA, facility design and operational characteristics shall enable effective and efficient implementation of safeguards while precluding design features that would prevent the effective application of safeguards. Examples include, but are not limited to: installation of vessel calibration systems; effective methods of solution mixing and sampling; and installation of independent instruments as dictated by authentication concerns.

b. Safeguards System Design and Installation

i. Cooperation with the IAEA.

The Facility operator and the Safeguards Implementing Agency of the Government of India (hereinafter referred to as the Indian SIA) shall accommodate the installation and operation of IAEA instrumentation in the Facility, including data collection, authentication systems and tamper-indicating devices.

ii. System of Accounting and Control Capable of Providing Accurate, Timely Data.

The operator of the Facility and the Indian SIA shall maintain a comprehensive and accurate nuclear materials accountancy system that conforms to IAEA standards as per the provisions of the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement, so that reliable and timely declarations can be made to the IAEA. A system of inventory records and reports shall be maintained for each material balance area. An effective system for measurement control shall be utilized.

iii. In-Process Material Measurement.

The Facility operator and the Indian SIA shall cooperate with the IAEA to enable the IAEA to provide at the Facility measurement capabilities that the IAEA considers as necessary to cover all major in-process nuclear material inventories during plant operation.

iv. Process Monitoring Data.

If desired by the IAEA, the Facility operator shall provide to the IAEA access to safeguards relevant operator data, such as authenticated process control data as per the provisions of the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement and India’s Additional Protocol when in force.

v. On-site Laboratory.

The Facility design shall incorporate an on-site laboratory, if IAEA so requests, to perform destructive analysis of process samples required by the IAEA safeguards approach at the Facility, and the IAEA shall be permitted to set up and operate that laboratory.

vi. Containment and Surveillance Systems.

The Facility design shall take into account the use of containment and surveillance systems in accordance with the IAEA’s practices and procedures, as required for the effective implementation of safeguards, and the IAEA shall be permitted to maintain such systems at the Facility.

c. Safeguards Implementation

i. Verification of Accountancy of Records.

The IAEA shall be permitted to carry out regular verification of nuclear material accountancy records and reports.

ii. Remote Data Transmissions.

The IAEA, if it considers it efficient for the purpose of safeguards implementation, may use remote transmission, in accordance with the provisions of India’s Additional Protocol when in force, of authenticated data to enable more frequent data analysis.

iii. Data Authentication.

The Parties recognize the importance of reliable instrumentation for the purpose of timely and accurate safeguards related data, and of data authentication for safeguards implementation. The Facility operator shall cooperate with the IAEA to apply adequate authentication methods to data and samples collected for safeguards purposes.

iv. Access and Transparency.

The Facility operator and the Indian SIA shall provide sufficient access to IAEA Inspectors to install and maintain safeguards equipment, and to inspect the complete process activity of the operator (including sample-taking) to the extent required for safeguards implementation and maintain a complete understanding of plant operation.

v. Annual Cleanout Inventory.

Nuclear material shall be removed from process lines annually in order to make it available, to the extent practicable, for accurate physical inventory verification.

vi. Anomaly Resolution.

The operator of the Facility and the Indian SIA shall cooperate with IAEA inspectors to resolve anomalies, if any, including material accounting anomalies, in a timely fashion.

ARTICLE 3 – CONSULTATION

The Parties undertake to consult at the request of either Party regarding the implementation of these Arrangements and Procedures.

ARTICLE 4 – PHYSICAL PROTECTION AND STORAGE AT THE FACILITY

1. In implementing physical protection at the Facility, and to the spent fuel and separated special fissionable material at the Facility, the Government of India shall apply measures in accordance with (i) levels of physical protection at least equivalent to the recommendations published in the IAEA document INFCIRC/225 Rev. 4 entitled “The Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and Nuclear Facilities,” and in any subsequent revisions of the document agreed to by the Parties, and (ii) the provisions of the 1980 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and any amendments to the Convention that enter into force for both Parties.

2. The Parties agree to exchange information on the approach to implementation of the requirements of this Article. The Parties shall also hold consultations visits at the Facility with respect to U.S.-obligated nuclear material in accordance with paragraph I of the Agreed Minute.

3. Any information provided by the Government of India pursuant to this Article that is classified shall be protected in accordance with Article 8 of these Arrangements and Procedures.

ARTICLE 5 – ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

The Government of India shall follow best practices, as established in its national regulations, for minimizing the impact on the environment which may arise from the operation of the Facility.

ARTICLE 6 – MANAGEMENT OF SAFEGUARDED SEPARATED PLUTONIUM

India is committed to the management of separated safeguarded plutonium in ways that are consistent with its national decisions on the civil nuclear fuel cycle. The management of separated safeguarded plutonium subject to these Arrangements and Procedures by the Government of India shall take into account the need to avoid contributing to the risks of nuclear proliferation; the need to protect the environment, workers and the public; the potential of the material for further energy generation; and the importance of balancing supply and demand, including demand for reasonable working stocks for civil nuclear operations.

ARTICLE 7 – SUSPENSION OF ARRANGEMENTS AND PROCEDURES

1. The Parties note the significance of the full and continued implementation of these Arrangements and Procedures concluded pursuant to Article 6(iii) of the Agreement for Cooperation for implementing full civil nuclear cooperation as envisioned in the Joint Statement of the Parties of July 18, 2005. The Parties recognize that these Arrangements and Procedures should facilitate and ensure the development of further cooperation in the field of peaceful uses of nuclear energy on a stable, reliable and predictable basis. The Parties have also agreed to take into account the effects of suspension of these Arrangements and Procedures on other aspects of cooperation under the Agreement for Cooperation.

2. The Government of India may undertake a temporary pause of limited duration in

operations at the Facility if in its view such an action is required on account of

specific circumstances regarding the Facility that may have an impact on the

safe and secure operation of the Facility, the continued application of IAEA

safeguards or physical protection measures, or the safety of personnel working in it or to the population in surrounding areas. The Government of India has the right to resume operations at the Facility when it decides that the specific circumstances that led to the temporary pause in operations no longer exist.

3. The Parties agree that the sole grounds for seeking suspension, under Article 14(9) of the Agreement for Cooperation, are exceptional circumstances limited to:

i) Either Party’s determination that continuance of reprocessing of U.S.-obligated nuclear material at the Facility would result in a serious threat to that Party’s national security, consistent with the Agreed Minute to these Arrangements and Procedures, or serious threat to the physical protection of the Facility or of the nuclear material at the Facility, and

ii) Either Party’s determination that suspension is an unavoidable measure.

4. Recognizing the critical importance of a decision to seek suspension, such a decision shall only be taken at the highest level of Government. As provided in Article 14(9) of the Agreement for Cooperation, the Party seeking suspension shall take into account the effects of such suspension on other aspects of cooperation under the Agreement for Cooperation. The Party seeking suspension shall also consider the effects of such suspension in light of the commitments and objectives, including full civil nuclear cooperation, contained in the U.S.-India Joint Statement of July 18, 2005.

5. The two Parties recognize that any suspension of these Arrangements and Procedures would have profound implications for the Agreement for Cooperation and for their relations. As such the two Parties shall exercise due restraint and caution before seeking suspension of these Arrangements and Procedures and shall use the provisions for consultations provided in Article 13 of the Agreement for Cooperation and in this Article. Such consultations shall also give special consideration to the importance for India of uninterrupted operation of nuclear reactors that provide nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and potential loss to the Indian economy and impact on energy security caused by a suspension of these Arrangements and Procedures. Both Parties shall take into account any negative consequences of such suspension on cooperation under the Agreement for Cooperation, including on-going contracts and projects initiated under the Agreement of Cooperation.

6. Subsequent to the above consultations, if either Party determines that exceptional circumstances do exist and that these Arrangements and Procedures should be suspended pursuant to Article 14(9) of the Agreement for Cooperation, that Party shall notify the other Party in writing providing reasons for the suspension. The Parties confirm that, as of the time of entry into force of these Arrangements and Procedures, there exists no objective evidence of any of the concerns specified in paragraph 3 of this Article.

7. Any decision to invoke the provisions of Article 14(9) of the Agreement for Cooperation shall be applied to the relevant reprocessing facility related to the exceptional circumstances to the minimum extent and for the minimum period of time necessary to deal with the exceptional circumstances and for not longer than a three month period unless extended by the Party seeking suspension for specific reasons conveyed in writing to the other Party. Both Parties shall review at the highest levels of Government, within three months from the commencement of the suspension, measures taken by the Parties aimed at reaching mutually acceptable resolution of outstanding issues, and steps taken to promote the earliest possible revocation of suspension, taking into account the effects of continuation of suspension on other aspects of cooperation under the Agreement for Cooperation. In case the suspension extends beyond a period of six months, both Parties shall enter into consultations on compensation for the adverse impact on the Indian economy due to disruption in electricity generation and loss on account of disruption of contractual obligations. The suspending Party shall notify the other Party in writing of a decision to end the suspension.

8. In the event of suspension of these Arrangements and Procedures the rights and obligations of the Parties under Article 14 of the Agreement for Cooperation shall remain unaffected.

ARTICLE 8 – CONFIDENTIALITY

1. If the Government of India, in carrying out its obligations under Articles 1(1)(e) and 4 of these Arrangements and Procedures, provides to the Government of the United States of America classified information concerning the physical protection of the Facility or nuclear material at the Facility, the Government of the United States of America shall protect that classified information against unauthorized disclosure in accordance with the terms set forth below and in accordance with the laws and regulations of the Government of the United States of America.

2. For purposes of these Arrangements and Procedures, “classified information” shall mean information provided by the Government of India pursuant to Articles 1(1)(e) and 4: (i) concerning the physical protection of the Facility or nuclear material at the Facility, the unauthorized disclosure of which could jeopardize the physical protection of the Facility or the material; (ii) which requires protection against unauthorized disclosure in the security interest of the Government of India; and (iii) which bears a security classification assigned by the Government of India. Classified information provided by the Government of India to the Government of the United States of America under these Arrangements and Procedures shall be marked by the Government of India in English as RESTRICTED, CONFIDENTIAL or SECRET.

3. Equivalent classifications are as follows:

INDIA UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

SECRET SECRET

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL

RESTRICTED CONFIDENTIAL (modified handling authorized)

4. To the extent consistent with its applicable national law and regulations, the Government of the United States of America shall seek to ensure that all classified information that is provided to the Government of the United States of America by the Government of India under these Arrangements and Procedures will not be publicly disclosed, and shall seek to accord appropriate protections to such classified information, with a view to providing the same level of protection as is accorded to such classified information by the Government of India. The Parties shall consult regarding the appropriate protection of such classified information.

ARTICLE 9 – INTERPRETATION

1. These Arrangements and Procedures are not intended to and shall not be interpreted to affect the terms of the Agreement for Cooperation, and in the case of any conflict between these Arrangements and Procedures and the Agreement for Cooperation, the terms of the Agreement for Cooperation shall prevail.

2. Terms used in these Arrangements and Procedures shall have the same meaning as given in the Agreement for Cooperation unless otherwise specified.

ARTICLE 10 – ENTRY INTO FORCE

These Arrangements and Procedures shall enter into force on the date on which the Parties exchange diplomatic notes informing each other that they have completed all applicable requirements for entry into force.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the undersigned, being duly authorized by their respective Governments, have signed these Arrangements and Procedures.

Done at __________________this ________day of ____________ 20__, in duplicate.

FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:

FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA:

Agreed Minute

During the negotiations of the Arrangements and Procedures agreed between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of India pursuant to Article 6(iii) of their Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy (“the Arrangements and Procedures”) signed today, the following understandings, which shall be an integral part of the Arrangements and Procedures, were reached.

I. PHYSICAL PROTECTION AND STORAGE AT THE FACILITY

i) A consultations visit under Article 4.2 shall be held within six months of the initial commencement of operations at the Facility and thereafter once in every subsequent five year period. In special cases, consultations visits can also be undertaken by mutual agreement between the Parties.

ii) The purpose of the consultations visits is to provide an opportunity for both Parties to exchange views on the implementation of physical protection measures as specified in Article 4.1 as well as exchange of information on international best practices with respect to physical protection.

iii) During the consultations visits the following activities shall be permitted:

a. Initial meeting between the visiting team of not more than ten persons and the designated authorities of the Facility;

b. Observe the protected area perimeter and its access control points;

c. Visit to the central alarm station;

d. A pre-exit meeting between the visiting team and the designated authorities of the Facility to prepare and finalize a confidential joint report on the visit to the Facility.

iv) The consultations visits shall be:

a. undertaken to the Facility at a time and duration mutually agreed by the Parties taking into account paragraph (i) above;

b. Addressed in accordance with Article 12.3 of the Agreement for Cooperation.

c. Conducted in a manner consistent with the national laws and safety and security regulations in force and without causing hindrance to smooth operations at the Facility. Access within the Facility shall be restricted as appropriate by the designated authorities of the Facility in order to protect sensitive locations and equipment at the Facility as well as sensitive information. The use of equipment by the visiting team shall not be permitted.

II. Article 7: SUSPENSION OF ARRANGEMENTS AND PROCEDURES

The Parties, taking into account their relations of strategic partnership and the objectives and purposes of the Agreement for Cooperation, agree that with respect to implementation of Article 7:

i) the reference to “serious national security concerns” shall not mean or be the basis for:

a. addressing differences between the Parties on the nature of peaceful nuclear activities of either Party or activities covered by Article 2.4 of the Agreement for Cooperation;

b. addressing differences with regard to fuel cycle choices;

c. the purpose of securing commercial advantage; or

d. the purpose of delaying, hampering or hindering peaceful nuclear activities of the other Party.

ii) Suspension of the Arrangements and Procedures means suspension of reprocessing of U.S.-obligated nuclear material at the Facility.

iii) Suspension of operation of the Facility or part thereof by the Facility operator shall be in accordance with operating procedures so as not to jeopardize the safety, early resumption of operation of the Facility, and its continued operation in the future. Operations at the Facility with regard to non-U.S.-obligated nuclear material shall not be affected by suspension under Article 7. With respect to U.S.-obligated nuclear material, the principle of proportionality as included in the Agreed Minute of the Agreement for Cooperation shall apply.

FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 

Ensuring resource security: From a local problem to a global challenge

Why Precious Is Strategic

Increasingly, ensuring resource security will go from being a local problem to a global problem

Brahma Chellaney


The Times of India, March 30, 2010

Water, food, energy and minerals are highly strategic resources. They are essential to human development and, in the case of water and food, to human survival. Food production is, meanwhile, closely intertwined with water and energy, while water and energy, for their part, are intimately linked to climate change. While the way we produce and consume energy makes up about two-thirds of all human-induced greenhouse gases, the availability of water resources will be directly affected by global warming. 

Growing populations, rising affluence, changing diets and the demands of development have already, however, placed significant pressure upon these strategic resources. The global food system is already struggling to meet the present demand for food, yet the World Bank projects a rise of 50 per cent in global demand for food by 2030. To grow more food will require more water – a resource now also under great strain, as pollution is threatening the world’s freshwater resources. 

The 2030 Water Resources Group, a consortium of private-social sector organisations, has pointed to a growing "water gap" in which global demand for water will be 40 per cent more than supply by 2030. Today, agriculture alone accounts for approximately 3,100 billion cubic metres or 71 per cent of global water withdrawals; by 2030, without water-efficiency gains, such withdrawals will increase to 4,500 billion m3. Water withdrawals by industry are projected to rise from 16 per cent of today’s global demand to 22 per cent in 2030, with the greatest growth in use coming from China, the world’s factory. 

As for energy, the imperative to combat global warming goes against the current trends of rising consumption of energy, much of it produced with fossil fuel. Such is Asia’s appetite for energy that its share of global consumption is projected to almost double over the next 20 years – to about 48 per cent for oil and 22 per cent for natural gas. Yet, given its limited oil and gas reserves, Asia is particularly vulnerable to sudden supply shortage or disruption. 

A further aspect regarding competition over resources is the intensification of resource geopolitics. Europe, for example, has worked hard to shape the direction of some of the Caspian Basin and Central Asian oil and gas pipelines because it has a stake in the issue of the routing. If Central Asian and Caspian Sea energy supplies are routed to the European market, that would help Europe diversify its imports and ease its dependence on Russia. 

Within Asia, China has emerged as a key player in pipeline politics. Beijing has built its own pipeline to bring oil from Kazakhstan and is seeking two gas pipelines from Russia. These pipelines are a lynchpin of China’s strategy to diversify its imports away from over-reliance on the volatile Persian Gulf region, the current source of more than half of Chinese overseas purchases. In contrast, energy-poor India and Japan do not have a similar option. Lacking geographical contiguity with Central Asia and Iran, India will remain largely dependent on oil imports by sea from the Persian Gulf region. 

China, with the world’s most resource-hungry economy, fears that in the event of a strategic confrontation, its economy could be held hostage by hostile naval forces through the interdiction of its oil imports. That same concern has prompted Beijing to build a strategic oil reserve, and China is now seeking to fashion two strategic corridors in southern Asia through which it could transfer Persian Gulf and African oil for its consumption by cutting the transportation distance and minimising its exposure to US-policed sea lanes. 

The new Chinese-built port at Gwadar, Pakistan, represents China’s first strategic foothold in the Arabian Sea. Gwadar, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, will link up with the Trans-Karakoram corridor to western China. China is also establishing a similar energy corridor through Myanmar. 

The blunt and incontrovertible truth is that energy demands in Asia are beginning to influence strategic thinking and military planning. For some states, a rising dependence on oil imports has served to rationalise both a growing emphasis on maritime power and security as well as a desire to seek greater strategic space. Concerns over sealane safety and rising vulnerability to disruption of energy supplies are prompting some countries to explore avenues for joint cooperation in maritime security. 

Water presents a unique challenge. While countries can scour the world for oil, natural gas and minerals to keep their economic machines humming, water cannot be secured through international trade deals. Sustainable and integrated management of national water resources is essential to prevent degradation, depletion and pollution of water. To meet the gap between supply and demand, water conservation, water efficiency, rainwater capture, water recycling and drip irrigation would have to be embraced at national, provincial and local levels. 

One can hope that advances in clean-water technologies would materialise before water conflicts flare. Low-cost, energy-efficient technologies for treating and recycling water could emerge from the scientific progress on nanoparticles and nanofibres and membrane bioreactors. 

The writer is professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. 

Source: the Foresight Initiative.

(c) The Times of India, 2010.

India’s Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill

A radioactive Bill fraught with big risks

The Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill seeks to burden the Indian taxpayer and encumber the rights of victims of any potential radioactive release from a foreign-built plant.

BRAHMA CHELLANEY

The Hindu, March 13, 2010  [For full text of the Bill, click http://ow.ly/1jRas]

The government has finally released the text of its controversial nuclear-accident liability Bill. The text not only confirms the concerns expressed earlier over key elements of the proposed law, but also raises additional issues of worry.

What stands out in the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill is the extent to which it goes to aid the business interests of the foreign reactor builders. In the process, the Bill seeks to financially burden the Indian taxpayer and encumber the rights of victims of any potential radioactive release from a foreign-built plant.

A special Indian law limiting liability in amount and in time has been sought by Washington for its nuclear-exporting firms, with the largest two, Westinghouse and General Electric (GE), set to win multibillion-dollar contracts to build several commercial nuclear power reactors. To forestall lawsuits filed against American suppliers in U.S. courts by victims of a nuclear catastrophe, Washington has also pressed for exclusive jurisdiction for Indian courts so that there will be no repeat of what happened after the Bhopal gas disaster. The Bill seeks to help out the U.S. firms on these counts, going at times even beyond what American law provides.

Under the Bill, the foreign reactor builder — however culpable it is for a nuclear accident — will be completely immune from any victim-initiated civil suit or criminal proceedings in an Indian court or in a court in its home country. The Bill actually turns the legal liability of a foreign reactor supplier for an accident into mere financial compensation — that too, pegged at a pittance and routed through the Indian state operator of the plant. Foreign suppliers will have no direct accident-related liability.

The foreign builders will bask under legal immunity because the Bill channels all legal liability to the Central Government. Clause 7 states the “Central Government shall be liable for nuclear damage in respect of a nuclear incident” when such liability exceeds the Rs.500-crore liability limit of the operator or where the accident occurs “in a nuclear installation owned by it [the Indian government].” The Union government will own all foreign-built reactors.

Indeed, the Bill creates a specious distinction between the operator and the government when both are fused in the Indian context. After all, it is the Indian state which will run all foreign-built plants through its operator, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL). Yet, throughout the Bill, the pretence of a U.S.-style separation between the operator and the government is maintained.

Under Clause 6, the maximum liability of the operator and the government combined has been set at “the rupee equivalent of 300 million special drawing rights (SDRs),” or Rs.2,087 crore ($458 million) — 23 times lower than the private-sector funds available under the equivalent U.S. law, the controversial Price-Anderson Act (labelled “Half-Price Anderson” by critics). Of this, the total liability of the operator has been limited to Rs.500 crore ($109 million). The Central government will be liable for damages in excess of Rs.500 crore but only up to Rs.2,087 crore.

In actual fact, all liability falls on the Indian taxpayer, whether it is the operator’s slice or the Central government’s portion. In contrast, the Price-Anderson system is without cost to the American taxpayer. In fact, the U.S., like Germany or Finland, has no cap on accident liability, with the U.S. Congress serving as the insurer of last resort.

The Indian state operator, the NPCIL, through a construction contract, can make the foreign builder legally responsible to pay compensation for an accident. But the amount payable by a foreign builder can only be up to the state operator’s own liability ceiling, which is a trifling Rs.500 crore ($109 million).

So, even if the accident were triggered by wilful negligence on the part of the foreign supplier and the consequences were catastrophic, all claims would have to be filed against the Indian state — with the NPCIL required to disburse the first Rs. 500 crore and the Central government the second portion up to Rs. 2,087 crore. The NPCIL could, in turn, try to recover its Rs. 500 crore from the foreign supplier. But for the Indian taxpayer, this is a lose-lose proposition.

That raises a fundamental question: What will it do to nuclear safety to grant foreign suppliers legal immunity upfront and to shift the liability to the Indian taxpayer?

Another key issue relates to the rights of victims. The Bill ensures that victims of a disaster involving a foreign-built reactor will not be able to sue the builder in its home country. Worse still, the Bill blocks the victims from suing the foreign supplier even in Indian courts.

Only the “operator shall have a right of recourse,” according to Clause 17. The state operator can sue the foreign supplier where “such right is expressly provided for in a contract in writing” and “the nuclear incident has resulted from the wilful act or gross negligence on the part of the supplier of the material, equipment or services, or of his employee.” But such a right of recourse can only be to meet the operator’s own small liability of Rs. 500 crore.

In fact, the Bill seriously shackles Indian courts. All nuclear-damage claims will be dealt with by a Claims Commissioner or a Nuclear Damage Claims Commission, and any award made “shall be final” and cannot be appealed in any court. “No civil court shall have jurisdiction to entertain any suit or proceedings in respect of any matter which the Claims Commissioner or the Commission, as the case may be, is empowered to adjudicate under this Act and no injunction shall be granted by any court or other authority in respect of any action taken or to be taken in pursuance of any power conferred by or under this Act,” according to Clause 35.

By contrast, the Price-Anderson Act permits economic (but not legal) channelling of liability, thereby allowing lawsuits and criminal proceedings against the reactor builder or any other party in U.S. courts. That is a key reason why the U.S. has not joined the Vienna or Paris convention — the two main international liability instruments. But the U.S. has become party to another convention it helped draft under the auspices of the IAEA — the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC), which is still not in force. The CSC, as the name suggests, is about compensation through an international fund, to be paid “supplementary” to the liability limit.

The Bill also limits liability in time, with Clause 18 stating: “The right to claim compensation for any nuclear damage caused by a nuclear incident shall extinguish if such claim is not made within a period of 10 years from the date of incident…” That provision was retained despite the Environment Ministry’s note of caution — revealed by this newspaper — that the 10-year time limit was untenable because damage to human health from a serious radioactive release “involves changes in DNAs, resulting in mutagenic and teratogenic changes, which take a long time to manifest.”

And although the Finance Ministry, in its comments on the Bill, had warned the proposed law would “expose the government to substantial liabilities for the failings of the private sector,” the Bill essentially seeks to give foreign reactor builders a free ride at the Indian taxpayer’s expense.

The Indian Bill, in effect, amounts to a huge hidden subsidy by protecting foreign reactor builders from the weight of the financial consequences of accidents. If the Bill is passed, the costs of doing business in India for foreign suppliers will be low but the assured profits will be high. To cover the maximum potential compensation payable for an accident, a foreign builder will need to take insurance for a mere Rs. 500 crore. What is more, the foreign builders are being freed from the task of producing electricity at marketable rates. The NPCIL will run the foreign-built reactors, with the state subsidising the high-priced electricity generated.

India is under no international obligation to pass such a law. In fact, efforts to create common international standards on liability and compensation since the Chernobyl disaster have made exceedingly slow progress. Yet the Bill’s accompanying “Statement of Objects and Reasons” creates the deceptive impression that the proposed law aims to bring India in line internationally. If anything, the Bill seeks to set a wrong international precedent by its mollycoddling of foreign suppliers.

To be sure, technological improvements in reactor-safety systems have significantly lowered the risks of a major nuclear accident. Yet nuclear technology remains intrinsically dangerous, and a single catastrophe anywhere in the world will impose colossal, long-term costs nationally and have a chilling effect on the global appeal of nuclear power. Given the nuclear safety and security issues that have been highlighted by recent incidents in India, accident liability is a matter demanding serious consideration.

The Bill attempts to set a new principle in international law: Profits are private, accident-related liabilities are all public. The government must answer the central question: In seeking to invite U.S. reactor builders, should a poor country rush to pass a special law that skews the business terms in their favour, gratuitously burdens the Indian taxpayer and ignores the lessons of the Bhopal gas disaster?

Keywords: Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill, Brahma Chellaney, Bhopal gas disaster, U.S., India, General Electric, Westinghouse, NPCIL, CSC, IAEA

India’s nuclear-accident liability law: An anti-market bill that weakens safety

Kill the nuclear liability Bill

Low accident liability and legal immunity mean reactor builders will have perverse incentives for malpractices

Brahma Chellaney Mint March 11, 2010

The Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill is an unparalleled piece of legislation: It aims to make foreign builders of nuclear reactors in India immune from legal action, however culpable they may be for a catastrophic accident. And it caps their liability at a ridiculously low Rs500 crore ($109 million) despite the billions of dollars in profit they are set to make. Yet, the government set the parliamentary process for the Bill’s consideration in motion under unusual circumstances—it circulated it to members on 8 March when Parliament was in turmoil over the women’s reservation issue.

Two issues stand out about the liability Bill. For one, it is an anti-market measure: It constitutes a generous Indian state subsidy to foreign firms. By seeking to shield foreign reactor builders from the weight of the financial consequences of severe accidents, the Bill shifts the main burden for accident liability from the foreign supplier to the Indian taxpayer.

Illustration: Jayachandran / Mint

For another, it weakens nuclear safety. After all, to grant foreign reactor builders legal immunity upfront and to turn their legal liability for an accident into mere compensation pegged at a pittance is hardly a way to advance nuclear safety.

Broadly, the anti-market features of the government’s proposed import of nuclear power reactors are manifold. First, the Bill seeks to help foreign firms cut their costs of doing business in India by requiring them to take accident liability insurance for a mere $109 million. The actual liability, according to the Bill, will be of the state operator, which will run foreign-built plants. The state operator, in turn, with make the foreign builder liable up to $109 million through the construction contract. Second, the government is merrily procuring land for foreign reactor builders. It has designated nuclear parks for foreign-origin reactors, reserving separate sites exclusively for US, French and Russian firms.

Three, reactor deals will be signed government-to-government without open bidding and transparency, just the way India has entered into contracts for US arms worth billions of dollars in recent years. Four, foreign firms are being freed from the task of producing electricity at marketable rates. The government will run the reactors through the state operator, subsidizing the high-priced electricity generated. And five, foreign suppliers will bask under legal immunity.

The liability Bill essentially is intended to help out the two US reactor exporting firms, Westinghouse and General Electric (GE) which, unlike their state-owned French and Russian competitors, are in the private sector. With India committed to importing at least 10,000MW of nuclear power generating capacity from the US, Washington has been zealously prodding New Delhi to enact the liability law. But in bending backwards to create a friendly business environment for US firms, the government is making the Indian taxpayer assume the principal financial burden in the event of a major accident.

Actually, the Bill symbolizes the latest in a string of conditions thrust on India under the much-trumpeted nuclear deal, which was approved by the US Congress in 2008 but whose nuclear energy benefits are unlikely to start flowing until nearly a decade from now, as the average global lead time for reactor construction has stretched to eight years. Under the deal, India got no legally binding fuel supply guarantee to avert a Tarapur-style cut-off, and no right to withdraw from its obligations under any circumstance, though the US has reserved the right for itself to suspend or terminate the arrangements if it holds India not to be in compliance with stipulated terms.

India is still negotiating with the US to secure the right to reprocess foreign-origin spent fuel under international inspection. The state department has notified the US Congress in writing, though, that “the proposed arrangements and procedures with India will provide for withdrawal of reprocessing consent” by the US.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had repeatedly promised to bring the nuclear deal to Parliament and “abide” by its decision. For example, he stated on 30 June 2008: “I have said it before, I will repeat it again, that you allow us to complete the process. Once the process is over, I will bring it before Parliament and abide by the House”.

Yet, no sooner had the process ended, than the government signed the 123 Agreement with the US, sidelining Parliament. Having given no role to Parliament on the main deal, the government now wants the two Houses to pass a special law to provide foreign companies with accident liability protection. In fact, as has been publicly revealed, the Bill was approved by the cabinet after the Prime Minister’s Office rode roughshod over objections raised by the finance and environment ministries to its provisions.

The Bill’s stated objectives and reasons seek to create the meretricious impression that it is designed to bring India in compliance with international nuclear liability instruments. The plain truth is that India is under no obligation to enact liability legislation. If India wants, it can follow the example of Russia, which has refused to pass legislation to waive or cap accident liability for its foreign suppliers. Or it can follow the lead of Germany, which has limitless liability and demands €2.5 billion ($3.4 billion) security from each plant’s operator.

Indeed, efforts to harmonize international rules on liability and compensation have been frustrated by the failure to bring all relevant international instruments into force. As the powerful World Nuclear Association—the lobbying arm of 180 nuclear firms, including GE, Westinghouse and Areva—admits, “States with a majority of the world’s 440 nuclear power reactors are not yet party to any international nuclear liability convention, relying on their own arrangements.”

Take the case of the US: It has its own domestic liability law, the controversial Price-Anderson Act, but it is not party to the main international instruments—the Vienna Convention of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the Paris Convention of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

In 1988, to bridge the geographical scope of the Vienna and Paris conventions, a joint protocol was adopted. Then in 1997, another protocol amended the Vienna Convention to set the limit of the operator’s liability at not less than 300 million special drawing rights, or SDRs ($458 million).

The US has now become party to IAEA’s 1997 Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage, or CSC, which recognizes the potential trans-boundary consequences of Chernobyl-type nuclear disasters, and thus seeks a common approach on compensation. Compensation is distinct from liability. CSC, as the name suggests, is about compensation, to be paid “supplementary” to the liability limit. To join CSC, a state must be party to the Vienna or Paris conventions, or certify that its national law complies with the CSC annex on liability. The supplementary compensation under CSC is to be provided through contributions by state-parties on the basis of their installed nuclear capacity and a United Nations rate of assessment.

The Indian government has misleadingly juxtaposed its liability Bill with CSC, which has not even entered into force.

In theory, the Bill seeks to emulate the Price-Anderson Act, the US system of indemnification for legal liability. But in reality, it picks the worst elements from both worlds—the US system and IAEA’s Vienna Convention.

The Vienna Convention has no upper ceiling on liability, only a minimum one (300 million SDRs, also reflected in CSC). But the minimum is so low that few countries have pegged liability to that level. For example, Japan’s operator liability now is 120 billion yen ($1.33 billion), while liability in Finland is unlimited, with each plant licensee required to take at least €700 million ($950 million) in insurance coverage.

The Price-Anderson system, for its part, provides for more than $10.5 billion in liability payouts for each disaster through a complex formula that includes insurance coverage carried by the reactor that suffered the accident, retrospective premiums from each of the operating reactors in the US, and a possible 5% surcharge. The US government assumes liability for any accident only above the $10.5 billion figure, which is inflation-adjusted every five years and thus variable.

The Indian Bill, by contrast, pegs maximum liability, as its clauses 6 and 7 state, at “the rupee equivalent of 300 million SDRs”, or Rs2,087 crore ($458 million)—that is, 23 times lower than the private-sector fund available under the Price-Anderson system. Of this, the total possible liability of the foreign supplier has been limited to a trifling Rs500 crore. The Union government will be liable for damages in excess of Rs500 crore but up to Rs2,087 crore.

The Price-Anderson Act—effectively a subsidy measure—has been severely criticized by independent groups in the US, where it has been mockingly called “Half-Price Anderson”. The legislation the Indian government is seeking to push through can be labelled “Free-Ride Anderson”. Under it, the reactor builder is free to rake in unlimited profits without a real liability on product safety.

What is worse is that while the Price-Anderson Act permits economic (but not legal) channelling of liability, thereby allowing lawsuits against any party, the Indian Bill grants foreign suppliers immunity from legal action by introducing legal channelling of all liability to the Indian government. It not only turns the “polluter pays” principle on its head, but also forecloses the possibility of victims suing the foreign reactor builder for additional damages even in Indian courts.

With the improvement in reactor safety systems, chances of a nuclear accident are admittedly low. But the consequences of a single nuclear accident would be colossal, with a serious radioactive release likely to cause lasting public health problems, including genetic damage passing on to future generations. Though it did not kill anyone, the 1979 partial core meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in the US led to 14 years of clean-up costing at least $1 billion. Little surprise that Washington has been pressing New Delhi hard on the liability issue.

More fundamentally, creating an artificial market with open-handed subsidies, land acquisition for foreign firms, abysmally underrated accident liability, and electricity supply at state-supported rates is no way to meet energy needs, or to reduce carbon emissions, or to help India’s poor. The Bill should be seen for what it is—an anti-market measure designed to promote unfair business practices and cartelization by rigging commercial terms in favour of select foreign suppliers.

Indeed, the Bill sends out a jarring message: Indian lives are cheap. It is a message at odds with India’s pride in being the world’s largest democracy.

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. Comment at theirview@livemint.com

Copyright © 2010 HT Media All Rights Reserved

India’s “graduated” approach to talks with Pakistan

Can’t Take Eyes Off Reality

Brahma Chellaney

The Economic Times, February 26, 1010

NORMALLY, diplomatic talks between any two neighbouring countries should be routine. But with the Pakistani military establishment continuing to sponsor crossborder terrorism in India behind a nuclear shield — a situation unparalleled in the world — Indo-Pakistan talks are anything but normal.

The renewed talks between the Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries have attracted attention for eight reasons. The first reason is the U-turn in Indian policy. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said “some Pakistani official agencies must have supported” the November 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. His surprise decision to renew talks was greeted in Pakistan as a major diplomatic climbdown by India.

A second reason is that the shift in the Indian position occurred without the government so much as offering a reasoned explanation to the public for the switch. Indeed, the shift occurred at a time when, as the PM has admitted, the level of crossborder infiltration by terrorists is increasing.

A third reason is a disturbing one: No sooner had India announced its decision to resume talks with Pakistan than a major terrorist strike in Pune happened. And a day after the foreign secretaries met in New Delhi, terrorists killed nine Indians, including two army doctors, in an attack on two Kabul guesthouses. That attack is believed to be the handiwork of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which earlier was behind the July 2008 bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul.

What the Pune and Kabul attacks highlight was that when Pakistan is kept under pressure, with the threat of Indian retaliation hanging like a sword over its head, it is able to rein in terrorist elements and prevent any terror attack occurring in India. But the moment the pressure is lifted against it and an air of triumphalism begins to reign in Islamabad, terrorist attacks against Indian targets are orchestrated, breaking a 14-month lull. Yet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says, “There is no alternative to dialogue to resolve the issues that divide us.”

This proves that the terrorist elements, far from being autonomous, are very much under the control of the Pakistani military establishment, which is able to use them at will.

The fourth reason is that the Indian decision seemed designed to aid America’s Af-Pak strategy. The publicly acknowledged U.S. strategy to reconcile with the Pakistan-backed Afghan Taliban has only increased U.S. reliance on the Pakistani military and intelligence. That strategy indeed received international imprimatur at the London conference.

At a critical time when the U.S. is seeking greater Pakistani military and intelligence assistance to build pressure on the Afghan Taliban commanders and bring them to the negotiating table, Washington has advised New Delhi to lend a helping hand by placating Islamabad through a resumption of talks.

As the top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has admitted, the aim of the American military surge is to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table, not to beat back the insurgency. The “surge first, then negotiate” U.S. strategy seeks to strike a political deal with the enemy from a position of strength.

For the talks with the Afghan Taliban to be successful, the U.S. intends to squeeze the Taliban first. Towards that end, the U.S. military’s ongoing Marjah offensive in Afghanistan represents a show of force.

After persuading the Indians to agree to resume talks with Islamabad, the U.S. not only launched the Marjah offensive, but also got Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to assist in the “capture” of several Afghan Taliban leaders. They include Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Afghan Taliban’s alleged operations chief; Mullah Abdul Kabir, a deputy prime minister in the former Taliban regime; Mullah Abdul Salam, an alleged Taliban shadow governor for Afghanistan’s Kunduz province; and Mullah Mohammad of Baghlan province.

The stage-managed arrests of these mullahs from Pakistani cities, including Karachi and Nowshera, showed that Afghan Taliban leaders are operating from urban centres in the heartland of Pakistan, not from mountain caves along the Af-Pak frontier.

A fifth reason is that India has not only dovetailed its Pakistan policy to America’s Af-Pak strategy, but also outsourced it to Washington. Instead of applying direct leverage against Pakistan, India is depending on the U.S. to lean on Islamabad.

India has been loath to use economic and security levers against Pakistan. Its decision to resume talks with Pakistan shows it also is reluctant to employ the diplomatic card.

Yet Indian reliance on the U.S. carries high risk. After all, American policy in southern Asia is being driven by narrow, politically expedient considerations, as illustrated by the manner the Obama administration is propping up Pakistan through generous aid and lethal-arms transfers. As U.S. ex-senator, Larry Pressler, has warned, “When the U.S. leaves Afghanistan, India will have a Pakistan ‘on steroids’ next door and a Taliban state to deal with in Afghanistan.”

The sixth reason is that the Indian government has sought to pull the wool over the eyes of the Indian public by claiming that the resumed dialogue process is centred on terrorism when in reality it is about the usual issues, including Kashmir. Nothing better illustrates this than the fact that New Delhi bent backwards to arrange a meeting between the visiting Pakistani foreign secretary and Hurriyet leaders, including Syed Ali Shah Geelani. In fact, the Pakistani foreign secretary came to New Delhi for two sets of dialogue: One with the Indian government, and the other with Geelani and his fellow Hurriyet leaders. What did the Pakistani foreign secretary convey to Geelani and company? The answer: Pakistan has not given up its plans to further shrink India’s frontiers.

The seventh reason is that New Delhi is engaging not the actors that wield real power in Pakistan — the military establishment — but a civilian government that neither is responsible for the terror attacks against India nor in a position to stop them. Yet, New Delhi has begun a “graduated” process of talks with the Pakistani government, effectively giving the Pakistani military a carte blanche to continue to wage its war by terror. With External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna telling Parliament that the foreign secretary-level talks were an “encouraging step” towards restoring full discourse, New Delhi is headed toward resuming the composite-dialogue process before long.

The eighth and final reason is that such talks only reinforce the India-Pakistan pairing when the need is for India to de-hyphenate itself from the quasi-failed, terror-exporting Pakistan, which is a crucible of extremism and fundamentalism. More than Washington it is New Delhi’s unimaginative diplomacy that is responsible for the continued India-Pakistan hyphenation internationally. 

The author is professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research.