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Professor, strategic thinker, author and commentator

China’s laogai system of forced prison labor follows its international investments

China’s newest export: convicts

The use of convict labourers on overseas projects is damaging China’s international reputation

China has devised a novel strategy to relieve pressure on its overcrowded prisons: employ convicts as labourers on overseas projects in the developing world. The practice has exposed another facet of China’s egregious human rights record which, when it comes to the overseas operations of Chinese companies, includes the government’s failure to enforce its own regulations.

China executes three times as many people every year as the rest of the world combined. Amnesty International has estimated that, in 2007, China secretly executed on average "around 22 prisoners every day".

In addition to being the world’s leading executioner, China has one of its largest prison populations. The 2009 world prison population listcompiled by the International Centre for Prison Studies at King’s College London, put the total number of inmates in Chinese jails at 1.57 million – larger than the population of Estonia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritius, Swaziland, Trinidad & Tobago, Fiji or Qatar.

The forced dispatch of prisoners to work on overseas infrastructure projects raises new issues regarding China’s human rights record. It also adds a new element – the dumping of convicts – to its trade and investment policy, which has been much criticised for dumping goods.

Thousands of Chinese convicts, for example, have been pressed into service on projects undertaken by state-run Chinese companies in Sri Lanka, a strategically important country for China as it seeks to enhance its regional position in the Indian Ocean. After providing Sri Lanka’s government with offensive weapon systems that helped end the country’s decades-long civil war, China has been rewarded with port-building, railroad, and other infrastructure projects.

Chinese convicts also have been dispatched to the Maldives, where the Chinese government is building 4,000 houses on several different islands as a government-to-government "gift" to win influence. So far, however, China has failed to persuade the country’s president to lease it one of the 700 uninhabited Maldivian islands for use as a small base for the Chinese navy.

Chinese companies’ operating practice for overseas projects, including in Africa, is to keep the number of local workers to a bare minimum and to bring in much of the workforce from China, some of which comprises convicts "freed" on parole for project-related overseas work. Convict labourers, like the rest of the Chinese workforce on such projects, are housed near the project site. That way, if any convict worker escaped, he would be easy to find in an alien setting.

In theory, such practices run counter to regulations promulgated by the Chinese commerce ministry in August 2006, in response to a backlash against Chinese businesses in Zambia following the death of 51 Zambian workers in an explosion at a Chinese-owned copper mine. These regulations called for "localisation," including hiring local workers, respecting local customs, and adhering to safety norms. During an eight-nation 2007 African tour, Chinese President Hu Jintao made a point of meeting with Chinese businesses to stress the importance of corporate responsibility in their local dealings.

Moreover, in October 2006, the state council – China’s cabinet – issued nine directives ordering that Chinese overseas businesses, among other things, "pay attention to environmental protection", "support local community and people’s livelihood cause" and "preserve China’s good image and its good corporate reputation".

But Chinese regulations are sometimes promulgated simply to blunt external criticism, and thus are seldom enforced, except when a case attracts international attention. For example, in 2003 China enacted a law on environmental-impact assessments, which was followed in 2008 by "provisional measures" to permit public participation in such assessments. Yet Chinese leaders remain more zealous about promoting exports and economic growth than in protecting the country’s air and water.

Similarly, the state council’s 2006 nine directives to Chinese overseas companies have been subordinated to the drive for exports and growth, even when it imposes environmental and social costs on local communities abroad. Indeed, as part of the government’s "going global" policy, Chinese companies are offered major incentives and rewards for bagging overseas contracts and boosting exports.

The use of convict labourers adds a disturbing new dimension to this strategy. But even before convicts became part of China’s overseas development effort, some Chinese projects, especially dam-building schemes, were embroiled in disputes with local communities in Botswana, Burma, Pakistan, Ghana and Sudan. In fact, several small bombs exploded less than three months ago at the site of Burma’s Myitsone dam, whose construction by a Chinese company in insurgency-torn Kachin state is displacing thousands of subsistence farmers and fishermen by flooding a wide swath of land.

Chinese companies cannot get thousands of prisoners released on their own, let alone secure passports and exit permits for them. It is obvious that the practice of pressing convicts into service on overseas projects has been instituted at the instance of the Chinese government.

Until the Chinese government’s treatment of its own citizens and those of other countries is guided by respect for basic human rights and the rule of law, China is unlikely to command the respect that it seeks on the world stage.

• Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.

China’s policy: From dumping goods to dumping convicts

Convicts for Export

Brahma Chellaney

 
© Project Syndicate 

 

China has devised a novel strategy to relieve pressure on its overcrowded prisons: employ convicts as laborers on overseas projects in the developing world. The practice has exposed another facet of China’s egregious human-rights record, which, when it comes to the overseas operations of Chinese companies, includes the government’s failure to enforce its own regulations.

China executes three times as many people every year as the rest of the world combined. Amnesty International has estimated that, in 2007, China secretly executed on average “around 22 prisoners every day.”

In addition to being the world’s leading executioner, China has one of its largest prison populations. The 2009 “World Prison Population List” compiled by the International Center for Prison Studies at King’s College, London, put the total number of inmates in Chinese jails at 1.57 million – larger than the population of Estonia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritius, Swaziland, Trinidad & Tobago, Fiji, or Qatar.

The forced dispatch of prisoners to work on overseas infrastructure projects raises new issues regarding China’s human-rights record. It also adds a new element — the dumping of convicts — to its trade and investment policy, which has been much criticized for dumping goods.

Thousands of Chinese convicts, for example, have been pressed into service on projects undertaken by state-run Chinese companies in Sri Lanka, a strategically important country for China as it seeks to enhance its regional position in the Indian Ocean. After providing Sri Lanka’s government with offensive weapon systems that helped end the country’s decades-long civil war, China has been rewarded with port-building, railroad, and other infrastructure projects.

Chinese convicts also have been dispatched to the Maldives, where the Chinese government is building 4,000 houses on several different islands as a government-to-government “gift” to win influence. So far, however, China has failed to persuade the country’s president to lease it one of the 700 uninhabited Maldivian islands for use as a small base for the Chinese navy.

Chinese companies’ operating practice for overseas projects, including in Africa, is to keep the number of local workers to a bare minimum and to bring in much of the workforce from China, some of which comprises convicts “freed” on parole for project-related overseas work. Convict laborers, like the rest of the Chinese workforce on such projects, are housed near the project site. That way, if any convict worker escaped, he would be easy to find in an alien setting.

In theory, such practices run counter to regulations promulgated by the Chinese commerce ministry in August 2006, in response to a backlash against Chinese businesses in Zambia following the death of 51 Zambian workers in an explosion at a Chinese-owned copper mine. These regulations called for “local ization,” including hiring local workers, respecting local customs, and adhering to safety norms. During an eight-nation 2007 African tour, Chinese President Hu Jintao made a point of meeting with Chinese businesses to stress the importance of corporate responsibility in their local dealings.

Moreover, in October 2006, the State Council – China’s cabinet – issued nine directives ordering that Chinese overseas businesses, among other things, “pay attention to environmental protection,” “support local community and people’s livelihood cause,” and “preserve China’s good image and its good corporate reputation.”

But Chinese regulations are sometimes promulgated simply to blunt external criticism, and thus are seldom enforced, except when a case attracts international attention. For example, in 2003 China enacted a law on environmental-impact assessments, which was followed in 2008 by “provisional measures” to permit public participation in such assessments. Yet Chinese leaders remain more zealous about promoting exports and economic growth than in protecting the country’s air and water.

Similarly, the State Council’s 2006 nine directives to Chinese overseas companies have been subordinated to the drive for exports and growth, even when it imposes environmental and social costs on local communities abroad. Indeed, as part of the government’s “going global” policy, Chinese companies are offered major incentives and rewards for bagging overseas contracts and boosting exports.

The use of convict laborers adds a disturbing new dimension to this strategy. But even before convicts became part of China’s overseas development effort, some Chinese projects, especially dam-building schemes, were embroiled in disputes with local communities in Botswana, Burma, Pakistan, Ghana, and Sudan. In fact, several small bombs exploded less than three months ago at the site of Burma’s Myitsone Dam, whose construction by a Chinese company in insurgency-torn Kachin State is displacing thousands of subsistence farmers and fishermen by flooding a wide swath of land.

Chinese companies cannot get thousands of prisoners released on their own, let alone secure passports and exit permits for them. It is obvious that the practice of pressing convicts into service on overseas projects has been instituted at the instance of the Chinese government.

Until the Chinese government’s treatment of its own citizens and those of other countries is guided by respect for basic human rights and the rule of law, China is unlikely to command the respect that it seeks on the world stage.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.
http://www.project-syndicate.org

Failed talks at Islamabad

Pakistan turns the tables on India

 

Brahma Chellaney

The Economic Times, July 20, 2010

 

In the blame-game over the botched Islamabad talks, it is India that comes out looking poorer. First, it resumed talks with Pakistan without having secured anything on the central issue of terrorism. Second, having made a diplomatic climbdown, India found itself being publicly put in the dock at the conclusion of the Islamabad talks.

 

The upshot is that a defensive India has had to respond to public accusations by a country whose state agencies continue to orchestrate acts of terror against Indian targets. This, however, is not the first time Pakistan has turned the tables on India.

 

Whether it was the Agra summit, or the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting, or the latest talks, it was a “hurt” India that came out defending itself. As long as India continues to cling to a diplomacy of hope and dreams, Pakistan, although a failing state, will continue to reap the diplomatic advantage.

 

Few states put as much faith in diplomacy alone as India does. Yet, in the absence of realistic, goal-oriented statecraft, the propensity to act in haste and repent at leisure runs deep in Indian foreign policy. Gushy expectations and wishful thinking have blighted Indian foreign policy and condemned the nation to relive history.

 

The previous BJP-led government took India on a roller-coaster ride, with an ever-shifting policy course on Pakistan. The present government is taking India on another jarring roller-coaster ride, having learned no lesson from the Sharm el-Sheikh blunder or its earlier action in designating Pakistan as a “fellow victim of terror” like India.

 

Pretty much everyone in the Indian delegation returned from Sharm el-Sheikh with egg on his face — from the prime minister, who claimed incredulously that he had done nothing to change anything, to the foreign secretary, who blamed “poor drafting” for causing the furor in India. Yet, no sooner had the uproar subsided than the PM sought to redo exactly what had angered the nation.

 

What prompted New Delhi this year to resume dialogue with Pakistan, first at the foreign-secretary level and then at the foreign-minister level? Mum is the word. Confusion and contradiction marks India’s current Pakistan policy. Just take one example.

 

On the one hand, New Delhi blames Pakistan‘s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency for "controlling and coordinating" the Mumbai terror attacks “from the beginning to the end.” And on the other hand, it institutes “peace talks” with a Pakistani government whose India policy is controlled by the army and ISI. What does India seek to gain from such talks? Mum again is the word.

 

If New Delhi really has evidence to implicate the ISI in the Mumbai attacks, shouldn’t it, at a minimum, designate that rogue agency as a terrorist organization?

 

But that may be expecting too much from a government that thus far has not taken the smallest of small steps in response to the Mumbai attacks, not even as a mere token of India’s outrage over the role of Pakistani state actors in those strikes. Apart from sending Pakistan dossier after dossier pleading for action against the masterminds (and, in the process, fashioning a new counterterrorism tool — dossier-bombing), New Delhi has not lifted a finger.

 

In fact, the PM has been continuously shifting his Pakistan-related goalpost. After the Mumbai attacks, Singh first sought the dismantlement of Pakistan’s terror infrastructure against India. His benchmark then narrowed to bringing to justice the “perpetrators” (the actual executors, not the masterminds) of the Mumbai attacks. Next, Singh further watered down his stance by saying India was “willing to walk more than half the distance” if Pakistan undertook not actual action but merely offered “a renewed reaffirmation” to “bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai massacre to justice”. That is exactly what happened: In exchange for Pakistan’s mere reaffirmation of its anti-terror commitments, Singh resumed talks, only to suffer an embarrassing debacle in Islamabad.

 

But don’t expect the PM to give up on his make-peace-with-Pakistan line. In fact, after returning from Islamabad, the Indian foreign minister publicly blames the home secretary for ruining the talks. “Everyone who was privy to whatever was happening in government ought to have known that the right kind of atmosphere from India’s side should have been created for the talks to go on in a very normal manner, but unfortunately this episode happened,” he said.

 

Dangerous delusions characterize the Indian policy approach. One is that, “We cannot wish away the fact that Pakistan is our neighbor,” as the PM says. So, “a stable, peaceful and prosperous Pakistan” is in India’s “own interest.” But political maps are never carved in stone, as the breaking away of Eritrea, East Timor and others have shown. Didn’t Indira Gandhi change political geography in 1971? In fact, the most-profound global events in recent history have been the fragmentation of several states, including the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. If Pakistan is on the path to self-destruct, why does India want “a stable, peaceful and prosperous Pakistan”?

 

Another delusion is that India and Pakistan are locked by a shared destiny. How can a plural, inclusive and democratic India share a common future with a theocratic, militarized and radicalized Pakistan?

 

 Randall L. Schweller, in his study Deadly Imbalances, labels revisionist nations “wolves” and “jackals”, while status quo states are either “lambs” or “lions”.  India certainly qualifies as a “lamb”, surrounded by “jackal” Pakistan and “wolf” China.  The “lamb” status is in keeping with its intrinsic disposition and meek objectives.  Although its borders have shrunk since independence, India is lamb-like content with the status quo.  Only a “lamb” state will make unilateral concessions.  Also, only a “lamb” will assume that others change their beliefs and policies as rapidly as it meanders to a new course.

 

Brahma Chellaney is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.

ASEM process: Two continents seek one vision

Don’t underestimate ASEM

The Japan Times, July 21, 2010
 

One of the less-noticed initiatives in the world is the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), designed to foster closer cooperation between the old economic giants of Europe and the new economic powers of Asia — the two diverse but culturally rich continents that together represent half of the world’s GDP and about 60 percent of the global population and international trade.
 

Heads of state or government from 46 Asian and European countries will gather in Brussels in early October for the eighth ASEM summit to discuss key international challenges and ways to strengthen political, economic and cultural ties between the two continents. They will include leaders from Russia, Australia and New Zealand, which are set to shortly join the ASEM initiative.

 

As a runup to the summit meeting, the ASEM Public Conference on Europe-Asia Inter-Regional Relations, held in Brussels from July 12 and 13, examined the regional institutional architectures in Asia and Europe, security concerns in both continents, global economic and financial challenges and prospects for building closer Asian-European collaborations.

 

ASEM has the potential to play an important role on the world stage. Indeed, Europe has developed an important stake in Asia’s continued economic growth and peace: Its trade with Asia totaled 750 billion euro in 2009. European foreign direct investment in Asia is estimated at 350 billion euro, with some 40 billion euro invested in 2008 alone.

 

In addition, according to analyst Dr. Fraser Cameron, the European Union, as an institution, expends 800 million euro on development assistance in Asia — a figure that rises to over 3 billion euro when bilateral development aid from the EU member-states in included.

 

At the last ASEM summit meeting in Beijing in 2008, discussions began on reforming international institutions, whose structure has remained static since the 1940s even though the world has changed fundamentally. In response to the growing Asian pressure, the World Bank agreed three months ago on a 3.13 percent shift in voting power to give emerging and developing nations greater influence.

 

Reaching a deal on such a change, however modest, became a test case in Asia-Europe relations because the European economies were reluctant to give up some of their voting shares, especially as the United States was intent on holding on to its veto power. The biggest beneficiary of this reform is China, whose voting power at the World Bank now ranks third behind the U.S and Japan.

 

Group of 20 leaders last month pledged to push for a similar agreement in the International Monetary Fund to transfer up to 5 percent of the voting power to emerging economic powers by the next G20 summit in Seoul in early November.

 

Some 14 years after its establishment, ASEM remains an ambitious initiative. It is difficult to lump Europe and Asia together, especially at a time when Asia has become the world’s largest creditor and the main economic locomotive and Europe’s financial crisis has turned its focus inward. Asia has done a much better job than Europe and the U.S. in coping with the international financial crisis. The EU entered the 21st century on a confident note after introducing the euro and then expanding to become a 27-nation institution. But in more recent years, discord over institutional changes and the impact of the financial crisis have stalled its momentum.

 

Still, Asia’s rise is often exaggerated, just as there tends to be an unnecessarily gloomy view about Europe, as if it were under irreversible decline.

 

Asia’s rise has been looked at from a single index: GDP growth. But the concept of development is not one-dimensional. It is broad-based and comprises multiple indexes, including low-income disparity, respect for human rights and the rule of law, robust civil society, social equity, public transparency and accountability, gender equality, environmental protection, and secularism.

 

When such broader benchmarks are considered, Europe emerges as an example for Asia to emulate. That is underlined by the UNDP’s annual Human Development Reports, which show disparities in Asia are growing, along with environmental degradation. Such trends hold ominous implications for intrastate stability in Asia.

 

As far as larger security is concerned, there is a clear overlap between European and Asian interests. That is best symbolized by the Afpak belt, with NATO spearheading the Afghan war, in which forces of a number of European countries are involved. It is also symbolized by the presence of European and Asian navies in the western rim of the Indian Ocean to combat ocean piracy, especially off the coast of Somalia.

 

With 21 EU member-states in NATO, the military involvement of European countries in the Afghan war shows how Asian security issues can impinge on European interests.

 

Both Europe and Asia actually face important security challenges. For Europe, defining the relationship with NATO, including the scope for closer cooperation, is important for further developing the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), formerly known as the European Security and Defense Policy.

 

Compared to Europe, Asia’s security challenges are far more pressing. Asia has not only the world’s fastest-growing economies, but also the world’s fastest- rising military expenditures, the most dangerous hot spots and the fiercest resource competition, both for energy and for water.

 

Asia may be coming together economically, as reflected in the plethora of free trade agreements in the region. But it is not coming together politically. If anything, it is becoming more divided.

 

To compound matters, there is neither any security architecture in Asia nor a structural framework for regional security. The regional consultation mechanisms remain weak, even though Asia needs to cope with entrenched territorial disputes, sharpening competition over scarce resources, maritime-security threats, expanding national military capabilities, increasingly fervent nationalism and the rise of religious extremism. Differences persist over whether a security architecture should extend across Asia or just be confined to an ill-defined regional construct, East Asia. China favors the latter, and the U.S., Japan, India and several other Asian states the former.

 

For its part, Europe has made slow progress in strengthening its security architecture or giving concrete shape to the CSDP. But the Asian challenges raise an important question: Is Asia going to be an arena of old-style, balance-of-power politics and thus crimp its ability to shape the new global order? Or will growing cooperation and economic interdependence, as well as prospects of shared prosperity and stability, propel Asian states to act as "responsible stakeholders" in the international system and help reform global institutions?

 

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.

 

The Japan Times: Wednesday, July 21, 2010

(C) All rights reserved

Needed: A new political order in the Hindu-Kush region

Time has come to accept the de facto partition of Afghanistan

Brahma Chellaney

The Sunday Guardian, July 18, 2010 

As the Afghanistan war approaches its 10th anniversary, it
is a reminder that this is the longest foreign war in American history. The
U.S. war effort is clearly faltering, to the extent that Afghan President Hamid
Karzai has started exploring the possibility of cutting his own deal with the
Taliban.

If defeat is beginning to stare the U.S. in the face, it is
largely because of President Barack Obama’s botched strategy. Obama has
designed his twin troop surges not to militarily rout the Afghan Taliban but to
strike a political deal with the enemy from a position of strength. But as CIA
director Leon Panetta admitted recently about the Taliban, “We have seen no
evidence that they are truly interested in reconciliation.”

Why would the Taliban be interested in negotiating a deal
with the Americans when Obama publicly declared, just weeks after coming to
office, that he was interested in a military exit from Afghanistan? The Taliban
and their sponsors, the Pakistan military, simply want to wait out the Americans.

Unable to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, the
Obama administration is searching for credible options to fend off defeat.
While the U.S. has no cost-free option, its least bad option, according to
Robert Blackwill, is to accept the de facto partition of Afghanistan.
Blackwill, who served as U.S. ambassador to India, deputy national security
advisor for strategic planning and presidential envoy to Iraq in the George W.
Bush administration, says in an article that de facto partition offers the only
alternative to strategic defeat. That option means that the U.S. will end
ground operations in Afghanistan but use air power and its special forces to
attack Taliban strongholds in Afghanistan’s Pashtun-dominated south and east
while ensuring that the non-Pashtun northern and western Afghan regions retain
their present de facto autonomy.

Blackwill has picked up the de facto partition idea from
M.J. Akbar, who has been advocating it for a while. This idea meshes with the
thesis this writer has been propounding that the way to contain the scourge of
international terrorism is to stop treating as sacrosanct the existing
political borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is continuing reluctance
in the international policy discourse to face up to a central reality: The
political border between these two problem countries has now ceased to exist in
practice.

The so-called Durand Line, in any event, was an artificial,
British-colonial invention that left the large Pashtun community divided into
two. Set up in 1893 as the border between British-led India and Afghanistan,
the Durand Line had been despised and rejected by Afghanistan for long as a
colonial imposition.

Today, that line exists only in maps. On the ground, it has
little political, ethnic and economic relevance, even as the
Afghanistan-Pakistan region has become a magnet for the world’s jihadists. A de
facto Pashtunistan, long sought by Pashtuns, now exists on the ruins of an
ongoing Islamist militancy but without any political authority in charge.

The disappearance of the Af-Pak political border seems
irreversible. While the writ of the Pakistani state no longer extends to nearly
half of that country (much of Baluchistan, large parts of the North-West
Frontier Province and the whole of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas),
ever-larger swaths of Afghanistan are outside the control of the government in
Kabul. The Pakistani army has lost increasing ground to insurgents in the
western regions not because it is weaker than the armed extremists and
insurgents but because an ethnic, tribal and militant backlash has resulted in
the state withering away in the Pashtun and Baluch lands. Forced to cede
control, the jihadist-infiltrated Pakistani military and its infamous
Inter-Services Intelligence agency have chosen to support proxy militant
groups, in addition to the Taliban.

The international reluctance to come to terms with the new
reality is because of the fundamental, far-reaching issues such acceptance
would throw open. It is simpler to just keep up the pretense of wanting to
stabilize Pakistan and Afghanistan within their existing political frontiers.

Take U.S. policy. As if determined to hide from this
reality, Washington is now pursuing, at least outwardly, a military approach
toward Afghanistan through a troop “surge” and a political strategy toward
Pakistan centered on the tripling of non-military aid. The plain fact is that
the entire war effort has been focused on the wrong side of the Durand Line. A
forward-looking Af-Pak policy demands consistency in approach toward these two
interlinked countries and recognition of the 2,640-kilometer Durand Line’s
disappearance. The ethnic genie cannot be put back in the bottle.

To arrest further deterioration in the Afghan war, the U.S.
military needs to focus less on al-Qaeda — a badly splintered and weakened
organization whose leadership operates out of mountain caves — and more on an
increasingly resurgent Taliban that operates openly and has sanctuaries and a
command-and-control structure in Pakistan.

The Obama administration complains that a weak, corrupt
government in Kabul is driving Afghans into the Taliban’s clutches. So, it has
sought to do business directly with provincial governors and tribal leaders and
seek their help to set up local, Iraq-style militias to assist the U.S. forces.
Yet in Pakistan it is doing the opposite: propping up a shaky, inept central
government while pampering the military establishment that is working to
undermine the civilians in power. Despite the generous U.S. aid, the
2010
Failed States Index
ranks Pakistan as the 10th most failed state on Earth.

Let’s be clear: Pakistan and Afghanistan, two artificially
created states with no roots in history that have searched endlessly for a
national identity, constitute the most dangerous region on earth. They have
emerged as the global epicenter of transnational terrorism and narcotics trade.
Additionally, Pakistan is where state-nurtured terrorism and state-reared
nuclear smuggling uniquely intersect.

Yet, as if the forces of terror can be boxed in, the U.S. is
now scaling back its objective to regionally contain rather than defeat
terrorism — a strategy that promises to keep the Af-Pak problem as a festering
threat to global security.

Given that this region has become ungovernable
and borderless, it seems pointless to treat the existing political frontiers of
Afghanistan and Pakistan as sacrosanct when the Af-Pak fusion term itself
implies the two are no longer separate entities. The time has come to start
debating what kind of a new political order in the Hindu-Kush region could
create stable, moderate, governable and ethnically more harmonious states.
Accepting the de facto partition of Afghanistan can serve as a first step in
that direction.

China now exports its convicts

HUMAN RIGHTS

CHELLANEY: China’s latest export innovation?

Send your convicts overseas

The Washington Times

By Brahma Chellaney

7:58 p.m., Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Illustration: Chinese labor by Alexander Hunter for The Washington Times

 

       

Relieving pressure on overcrowded national prisons by employing convicts as laborers at Chinese-run projects in the developing world is a novel strategy China has adopted – an approach that is certain to create a new backlash against Chinese businesses overseas in addition to highlighting the country’s egregious human-rights record.

China executes three times as many people every year as the rest of the world combined, according to Amnesty International, which in 2008 estimated that "on average China secretly executes around 22 prisoners every day."

China has evolved in important ways as a result of its economic "opening," with the new social pluralism prompting the state to cut back on totalitarian practices. Yet, with its Soviet-style autocratic structure intact, there is little space for political pluralism. Those who challenge government policies or practices or stage demonstrations against official highhandedness risk long imprisonment.

The forced dispatch of prisoners to work on overseas infrastructure projects raises new issues regarding China‘s human-rights record.

Thousands of Chinese convicts, for example, have been pressed into service in projects by state-run Chinese companies in Sri Lanka, a strategically important country for China, which is seeking a role in the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka sits astride vital sea lanes of communication.China – in return for being allowed to make strategic inroads – providedSri Lanka offensive weapon systems that helped end the long civil war on that island nation. Now, Beijing is being rewarded with port-building, railroads and other infrastructure projects.

Chinese convicts also have been taken to a microstate in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives, where the Chinese government is building 4,000 houses on several different islands as a government-to-government "gift" to win influence there. So far, however, Beijing has failed to persuade the president of the archipelago of 330,000 people to lease it one of the 700 uninhabited Maldivian islands for setting up a small base for its navy.

The Chinese practice in overseas projects, including in Africa, is to keep the number of local workers to the minimum and to bring in much of the workforce from China. The novel twist is that some batches of laborers now being brought in are made up of convicts "freed" on parole for project-related overseas work.

The convict laborers, like the rest of the Chinese workforce, are housed near the project site. The Chinese logic is that if any convict worker escaped, it would be easy to find the runaway in an alien setting.

Chinese firms actually bring in more than just convict laborers and other workers at overseas projects. To help boost Chinese exports, they get all equipment, steel, cement and other construction material from China.

Such practices run counter to the Chinese commerce ministry’s August 2006 regulations – promulgated in response to the backlash against Chinese businesses in Zambia following the death of 51 Zambian workers in an explosion at a Chinese-owned copper mine – that called for "localization," including hiring local workers, respecting local customs and adhering to safety norms. During an eight-nation 2007 African tour, President Hu Jintao made a special point of meeting with Chinese businesses to stress the importance of corporate responsibility in their dealings at the local level.

Earlier, in October 2006, the State Council – China’s Cabinet – issued nine directives that Chinese businesses overseas, among other things, "pay attention to environmental protection," "support local community and people’s livelihood" and "preserve China‘s good image and its good corporate reputation."

Chinese domestic regulations, however, are sometimes promulgated to blunt external criticism, rather than actually be enforced, except when a case attracts international attention.

For example, China enacted an environmental-impact assessment law in 2003, which was followed up in 2008 with "provisional measures" to permit public participation in such environmental assessments. Yet it remains more zealous about promoting exports and economic growth at home than in protecting its air and water.

Similarly, despite the State Council’s 2006 nine good-conduct directives to Chinese companies engaged in overseas operations, the government and corporate priority still is to boost exports aggressively, even if such a push results in environmental and social costs for local communities. Indeed, as part of the government‘s "going global" policy, Chinese companies are offered major incentives and rewards for bagging overseas contracts and boosting exports.

The use of convict laborers adds a disturbing new dimension to the "going global" strategy, which was first unveiled in 2001.

As it is, some Chinese projects, especially dam-building schemes, have been embroiled in disputes with local communities in several countries, including in Botswana, Burma, Pakistan, Ghana and Sudan. In fact, several small bombs went off less than three months ago at the site of Burma’s Myitsone Dam, whose construction by a Chinese company in the insurgency-torn, northernmost Kachin state is displacing thousands of subsistence farmers and fishermen by flooding a wide swath of land.

China is not only the world leader in building dams at home but also the top dam exporter. It has no qualms about building dams in disputed territories like Pakistan-held Kashmir, in areas torn by ethnic separatism or in other human rights-abusing countries. But its use of convict laborers at dams and other infrastructure projects will create new rifts with local communities.

China‘s declaratory policy of ”non-interference in domestic affairs” serves as a virtual license to pursue projects that benefit governments known to repress their citizens. For example, in Sudan, where China has emerged as the principal backer of a regime accused of committing genocide in the arid western region of Darfur, 13 of the 15 largest foreign companies operating are Chinese, with Beijing making huge investments in the Sudanese economy – from hydropower to oil. It also has sold hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of weapons, including tanks and fighter-jets, to help prop up President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur.

Chinese companies on their own cannot get prisoners released in thousands, let alone to secure passports and exit permits for them. It is obvious that the controversial practice of pressing convicts into service at overseas projects has been instituted by the Chinese government.

Until Beijing’s treatment of its own citizens and those of other countries is guided by respect for basic human rights and the rule of law, China is unlikely to command respect on the world stage.

Brahma Chellaney is the author of Asian Juggernaut (HarperCollins, 2010).

© Copyright 2010 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

India plays into China’s hands by staying engaged in useless border talks

Clueless  on  China

 

Brahma Chellaney

The Sunday Guardian, July 4, 2010

 

Yet another round of India-China border talks is under way in Beijing. The unending and fruitless talks on territorial disputes underscore the eroding utility of this process. It is approaching three decades since China and India began these negotiations. In this period, the world has changed fundamentally. Indeed, with its rapidly accumulating military and economic power, China itself has emerged as a great power in the making, with Washington’s Asia policy now manifestly Sino-centric. Not only has India allowed its military and nuclear asymmetry with China to grow, but also New Delhi’s room for diplomatic maneuver is shrinking.

 

Power asymmetry in interstate relations does not mean the weaker side must bend to the dictates of the stronger or seek to propitiate it. Wise strategy, coupled with good diplomacy, is the art of offsetting or neutralizing military or economic power imbalance with another state.

But by staying engaged in the useless border talks, knowing fully well that Beijing has no intent to settle the territorial issues, India plays into China’s hands. The longer the process of border talks continues, the greater the space Beijing will have to mount strategic pressure on India and the greater its leverage in the negotiations. After all, China already holds the military advantage on the ground. Its forces control the heights along the long 4,057-kilometer Himalayan frontier, with the Indian troops perched largely on the lower levels. Furthermore, by building new railroads, airports and highways in Tibet, China is now in a position to rapidly move additional forces to the border to potentially strike at India at a time of its choosing.

 

Diplomatically, China is a contented party, having occupied what it wanted — the Aksai Chin plateau, which is almost the size of Switzerland and provides the only accessible Tibet-Xinjiang route through the Karakoram passes of the Kunlun Mountains. Yet it chooses to press claims on additional Indian territories as part of a grand strategy to gain leverage in bilateral relations and, more importantly, to keep India under military and diplomatic pressure.

 

At the core of its strategy is an apparent resolve to indefinitely hold off on a border settlement with India through an overt refusal to accept the territorial status quo. In not hiding its intent to further redraw the Himalayan frontiers, Beijing only helps highlight the futility of the ongoing process of political negotiations. After all, the territorial status quo can be changed not through political talks but by further military conquest. Yet, paradoxically, the political process remains important for Beijing to provide the façade of engagement behind which to seek India’s containment.

 

Keeping India engaged in endless talks is a key Chinese objective so that Beijing can continue its work on changing the Himalayan balance decisively in its favor through a greater build-up of military power and logistical capabilities. That is why China has sought to shield the negotiating process from the perceptible hardening of its stance toward New Delhi and the vituperative attacks against India in its state-run media. Add to the picture the aggressive patrolling of the Himalayan frontier by the People’s Liberation Army and the growing Chinese incursions across the line of control.

 

Over the decades, the Chinese negotiating tactics have shifted markedly. Beijing originally floated the swap idea — giving up its claims in India’s northeast in return for Indian acceptance of the Chinese control over a part of Ladakh — to legalize its occupation of Aksai Chin. It then sang the mantra of putting the territorial disputes on the backburner so that the two countries could concentrate on building close, mutually beneficial relations. But in more recent years, in keeping with its rising strength, China has escalated border tensions and military incursions while assertively laying claim to Arunachal Pradesh.

 

The present border negotiations have been going on continuously since 1981, making them already the longest and the most-barren process between any two countries in modern history. The record includes eight rounds of senior-level talks between 1981 and 1987, and14 Joint Working Group meetings between 1988 and 2002. The latest discussions constitute the 14th round of talks between the designated Special Representatives since 2003. 

 

The authoritative People’s Daily — the Communist Party mouthpiece that reflects official thinking — made it clear in a June 11, 2009 editorial: “China won’t make any compromises in its border disputes with India.” That reflects the Chinese position in the negotiations. But even when Beijing advertises its uncompromising stance, New Delhi refuses to heed the message.

 

What does India gain by staying put in an interminably barren negotiating process with China? By persisting with this process, isn’t India aiding the Chinese engagement-with-containment strategy by providing Beijing the cover it needs? While Beijing’s strategy and tactics are apparent, India has had difficulty to define a game-plan and resolutely pursue clearly laid-out objectives. Still, staying put in a barren process cannot be an end in itself for India.

 

India indeed has retreated to an increasingly defensive position territorially, with the spotlight now on China’s Tibet-linked claim to Arunachal Pradesh than on Tibet’s status itself. Now you know why Beijing invested so much political capital over the years in getting India to gradually accept Tibet as part of the territory of the People’s Republic. Its success on that score has helped narrow the dispute to what it claims. That neatly meshes with China’s long-standing negotiating stance: What it occupies is Chinese territory, and what it claims must be on the table to be settled on the basis of give-and-take — or as it puts it in reasonably sounding terms, on the basis of “mutual accommodation and mutual understanding.”

 

As a result, India has been left in the unenviable position of having to fend off Chinese territorial demands. In fact, history is in danger of repeating itself as India gets sucked into a 1950s-style trap. The issue then was Aksai Chin; the issue now is Arunachal. But rather than put the focus on the source of China’s claim — Tibet — and Beijing’s attempt to territorially enlarge its Tibet annexation to what it calls “southern Tibet,” India is willing to be taken ad infinitum around the mulberry bush. Just because New Delhi has accepted Tibet to be part of China should not prevent it from gently shining a spotlight on Tibet as the lingering core issue.

 

Yet India’s long record of political diffidence only emboldens Beijing. India accepted the Chinese annexation of Tibet and surrendered its own British-inherited extraterritorial rights over Tibet on a silver platter without asking for anything in return. Now, China wants India to display the same “amicable spirit” and hand over to it at least the Tawang valley.

China’s Murky Hydropolitics

Ties and Troubled Waters

 

China’s hydro-engineering projects in Tibet indicate it is fashioning water as a card against India

 

Brahma Chellaney

The Times of India, June 29, 2010

 

New evidence from China indicates that, as part of its planned diversion of the waters of the Brahmaputra, preparations are afoot to start work on the world’s biggest dam at the river’s so-called Great Bend, located at Tibet’s corner with northeastern India. The dam, by impounding water on a gargantuan scale, will generate, according to a latest map of planned dams put up on its Web site by the state-run Hydro China, 38,000 megawatts of power, or more than twice the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam. Such is its scale that this new dam will by itself produce the equivalent of 25 percent of India’s current electricity generation from all sources. 

 

Water is becoming a key security issue in Sino-Indian relations and a potential source of enduring discord. China and India already are water-stressed economies. The spread of irrigated farming and water-intensive industries, together with the demands of a rising middle class, have led to a severe struggle for more water. Indeed, both countries have entered an era of perennial water scarcity, which before long is likely to equal, in terms of per capita availability, the water shortages found in the Middle East.

 

Rapid economic growth could slow in the face of acute scarcity if demand for water continues to grow at its current frantic pace, turning China and India both food-sufficient countries by and large into major importers, a development that would accentuate the global food crisis. Even though India has more arable land than China 160.5 million hectares compared to 137.1 million hectares the source of most major Indian rivers is Chinese-controlled Tibet. The Tibetan plateau’s vast glaciers, huge underground springs and high altitude make Tibet the world’s largest freshwater repository. Indeed, all of Asia’s major rivers, except the Ganges, originate in the Chinese-held Tibetan plateau. Even the Ganges’ main tributaries flow in from Tibet.

 

But China is now pursuing major inter-basin and inter-river water transfer projects on the Tibetan plateau, which threaten to diminish international-river flows into India and other co-riparian states. China’s opaquely pursued hydro-engineering projects in Tibet threaten the interests of India more than those of any other country. The greatest impact of the diversion of the Brahmaputra waters, however, would probably be borne by Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra is Bangladesh’s most-important river, and the Chinese diversion would mean environmental devastation of large parts of Bangladesh. In fact, China is presently pursuing a separate cascade of major dams on the Mekong, the Salween, the Brahmaputra and the Irtysh-Illy, pitting it in water disputes with most of its riparian neighbours — from Kazakhstan and Russia to India and the countries of Indochina Peninsula.

 

In March 2009, the chairman of the Tibetan regional government unveiled plans for major new dams on the Brahmaputra. A series of six big dams will come up in the upper-middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, to the southeast of Lhasa, with construction of the first — Zangmu — beginning in 2009 itself. As part of this cascade, four other new dams will come up downstream from Zangmu at Jiacha, Lengda, Zhongda and Langzhen. The sixth, at Jiexu, is upstream to Zangmu. This cascade is in addition to the more than a dozen smaller dams China already has built on the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, including at Yamdrok Tso, Pangduo, Nyingtri-Payi and Drikong.

 

The most ominous plan China is pursuing is the one to reroute a sizable chunk of the Brahmaputra waters northwards at the Great Bend, the point where the river makes a sharp turn to enter India, creating in the process a canyon larger and deeper than the Grand Canyon in the US. The rapid infrastructure work in this area is clearly geared at such water diversion and hydropower generation. In fact, a new Chinese State Grid map showing that the Great Bend area will soon be connected to the rest of China’s power supply is a pointer to the impending launch of work on the mammoth dam there — a scheme recently supported by leaders of China’s state-run hydropower industry, including Zhang Boting, the deputy general secretary of the Chinese Society for Hydropower Engineering.

 

Through its giant projects in Tibet, China is actually set to acquire the capability to fashion water as a political weapon against India. Such a weapon can be put to overt use in war or employed subtly in peacetime so that the level of cross-border water flows becomes a function of political concession.

 

With China determined to exploit its riparian dominance, New Delhi’s self-injurious acceptance of Tibet as part of China is becoming more apparent. Just as India has retreated to an increasingly defensive position territorially, with the spotlight on China’s Tibet-linked claim to Arunachal Pradesh than on Tibet’s status itself, New Delhi’s policy straitjacket precludes an Indian diplomatic campaign against Beijing’s dam-building projects. Accepting Tibet and the developments there as China’s “internal” affairs has proven a huge misstep that will continue to exact increasing costs. A bold, forward-looking leadership, though, can rectify any past mistake before it becomes too late.

 

The writer is professor, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.

Why American policy is hamstrung on China

China’s mastery of America’s domain

Military might earns Beijing deference on the economic battlefield

Brahma Chellaney, Washington Times, June 21, 2010

Success breeds confidence, and rapid success spawns arrogance. That, in a nutshell, is the China problem facing Asian states and the West. But no country faces a bigger dilemma on China than the United States because the present American policy simply isn’t advancing its objectives.

Rising economic and military power is emboldening Beijing to pursue a more muscular foreign policy, as exemplified by several developments – from China’s inclusion of the South China Sea in its "core" national interests, an action that makes its claims to the disputed islands non-negotiable, to its vile protests against the Indian prime minister visiting a state of the Indian Union, Arunachal Pradesh, on which Beijing has resurrected its long-dormant claim.

A new chill in relations between American and Chinese militaries, underlined by a Chinese admiral’s carping lecture on American "hegemony," has torpedoed the Obama administration’s hopes to make China a responsible partner in global affairs by giving Beijing a larger stake in solving international problems.

The shift in Beijing’s South China Sea position has resulted in its conveying to the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian claimants that any discussions between and among them over their claims would amount to interference in China’s internal affairs. But no less significant is that China’s expanding naval role and maritime claims are beginning to collide with U.S. interests, including the traditional emphasis on freedom of navigation.

Having earlier preached the gospel of its "peaceful rise," China is beginning to take off the gloves, convinced that it has acquired the necessary muscle.

That approach has become more marked since the advent of the 2008 global financial crisis. China has interpreted that crisis as symbolizing both the decline of the Anglo-American brand of capitalism and the weakening of American economic power. That, in turn, has strengthened its twofold belief – that its brand of state-steered capitalism offers a credible alternative and that its global ascendance is unstoppable.

Chinese analysts have gleefully pointed out that after having sung the "liberalize, privatize and let the markets decide" line for so long, the United States and Britain took the lead to bail out their troubled financial giants at the first sign of trouble when the global crisis broke out. By contrast, state-driven capitalism has given China economic stability and rapid growth, enabling it to ride out the international crisis. Indeed, despite the perpetual talk of an overheating economy, China’s exports and retail sales are soaring and its foreign-exchange hoarding is approaching $2.5 trillion even as America’s fiscal and trade deficits remain alarming.

That has helped reinforce the Chinese elite’s faith in the country’s fusion of autocratic politics and state capitalism, with the largest companies – all government-owned – aggressively advancing the national strategy to secure long-term resource supplies from overseas.

The biggest loser from the global financial crisis, in Beijing’s view, is Uncle Sam. That the United States remains dependent on Beijing to buy billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds every week to finance a yawning budget deficit is a sign of shifting global financial power balance – an advantage China is sure to milk politically in the years ahead.

The current spotlight may be on European financial woes, but the bigger picture for Beijing is that America’s chronic deficits and indebtedness epitomize its relative decline. Add to the picture the two wars the U.S. is waging overseas – one of which appears increasingly unwinnable – and what comes to the Chinese mind is a global superpower bogged down in serious troubles.

Against that background, China’s growing assertiveness may not surprise many. Late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s advice, "Hide your capabilities and bide your time," seems no longer relevant. Today, China is not shy to showcase its military capabilities and assert itself on multiple fronts.

Yet America’s economic and military travails are crimping its foreign-policy options vis-a-vis China. Although the Chinese economy is still more dependent for its growth on the U.S. economy than vice versa, Washington seems more reluctant than ever to exercise its leverage to make Beijing correct policies that threaten to distort trade, foster huge trade imbalances and spark greater competition for scarce raw materials.

By keeping its currency ridiculously undervalued and flooding the world markets with artificially cheap goods, China runs a predatory trade policy that undercuts manufacturing in the developing world more than in the West. However, by threatening to destabilize the global economy, China threatens Western interests.

Furthermore, its efforts to lock up supplies of key resources mean it will continue to lend support to renegade regimes. The U.N. Security Council’s latest Iranian-sanctions resolution is a "win-win" outcome for China because it exempts the key sector that matters to both Beijing and Tehran – energy – and opens the path to greater Chinese aid to, and clout in, Iran.

The present U.S. policy on China is a study in contrast to the way Washington unabashedly exercised its leverage when another Asian country – Japan – emerged as a global economic powerhouse in the 1980s. As it rose dramatically to become a potential economic peer to the United States, Japan kept the yen undervalued and erected hidden barriers to the entry of foreign manufacturers into its market. That resulted in the U.S. piling up pressure on Japan and periodically arm-twisting it to make trade concessions.

Today, the United States cannot adopt the same approach against Beijing, largely because China is also a military and political power and Washington depends on Chinese support on a host of international issues – from North Korea and Burma to Iran and Pakistan. By contrast, Japan has remained just an economic power.

It is significant that China became a global military player before it became a global economic player. China’s military power base was built by Mao Zedong, enabling Deng to focus single-mindedly on rapidly building economic power. Before Deng launched his "four modernizations," China had acquired a global military reach by testing its first intercontinental ballistic missile, the 12,000-kilometer DF-5, and developing a thermonuclear warhead.

Over the past three decades, the 13-fold expansion of its economy generated even greater resources for China to sharpen its military claws. But for the growing Chinese military power and political weight, U.S. policy would have treated China as another Japan.

The United States played a critical role in China’s economic rise by not sustaining post-Tiananmen Square sanctions. But the central assumption guiding U.S. policy on China has gone awry – that assisting China’s economic rise would help create both a compatible and cooperative partner and political openness within. The challenge the United States faces today is to reframe its policy before it becomes too late to resist China’s push for a redistributive global order whose institutions and rules respect the centrality of an authoritarian great power.

Brahma Chellaney is author of the international best-seller "Asian Juggernaut" (HarperCollins, New York, 2010).

© Copyright 2010 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

U.S.-funded private armies in Afghanistan

U.S. is building a new tribe of warlords in Afghanistan

Brahma
Chellaney

The Sunday Guardian, June 20, 2010

Just as the
United States
fattened jihadist militias in the 1980s, short-term interests are again leading
it to fund private Afghan miltias. This will carry serious consequences for
regional security, long after the Americans have pulled out from
Afghanistan.

The war in Afghanistan,
in any case, is becoming increasingly unwinnable for the Americans, as
underscored by the recent
series of U.S. political
and military setbacks.
The Afghan Taliban, with its inner shura (council) ensconced in the Quetta area of Pakistan,
is stepping up attacks across
Afghanistan.
That has brought into question the
viability of President Barack Obama’s plan to turn around Afghanistan
and begin withdrawing forces by July 2011.

            Faced with a desperate situation,
the administration is rolling out local militias in virtually every Afghan
province. It is
racing to secure Afghanistan so
that the president can start pulling out from July 2011 — a deadline he set on
his own, overriding the concerns of a sceptical military.

Under the militia-building plan, designed to
complement Obama’s two successive troop “surges,” local militias are being set
up in the Afghan provinces as part of a strategy to get a handle on the
situation. The militias are being established in two ways — either by training
and arming village recruits, or by bribing insurgent leaders to cross over with
their fighters and become the new law-enforcement force. The latter way has
become increasingly popular with the Americans as it offers the quickest
shortcut.

As a result, a new array of U.S.-backed provincial warlords have emerged across
Afghanistan, with millions of dollars in American funds being paid to them to
provide highway security and run missions with U.S. special forces. The
combination of American-sanctions arms and American funds has made these
warlords, with their private armies, so powerful that they have orchestrated
the removal of local Afghan officials who have dared to defy their diktats.

            For example, in southern Oruzgan Province, the most powerful man today is not the provincial governor or the
local army commander or the police chief, but a U.S.-funded chief of a
1500-strong private army,
Matiullah
Khan.

The U.S. support for establishment of private
militias, initiated quietly without any consultation with allies and partners,
flies in the face of the common agreement that the international community must
focus on institution-building, demobilization of existing militias and
reconstruction to create a stable, moderate Afghanistan — goals that have prompted
India to pour massive $1.5 billion aid into that country. The decision ignores
the danger that such militias could go out of control and threaten regional and
international security. That is exactly what happened with the militias President
Ronald Reagan heavily armed in the 1980s, the so-called
mujahideen.

            The new U.S.-supported warlords
already are acting as a law unto themselves, undermining state institutions,
conniving with drug dealers and seeking to strike private deals with the
Taliban. As the
Taliban
have targeted for assassination former insurgents who have switched sides, some
of the warlords have sought to keep both the Americans and the Taliban happy.
The Americans, for their part, have sought to encourage greater defections from
insurgent ranks by offering new incentives. For example, it has been made
public by British Maj. Gen. Philip Jones, who directs the reintegration effort
for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. that insurgents who cross over to
the NATO side can keep weapons to provide security to local communities.

Confronting grim realities on the ground, Washington is seeking to pursue shortcuts, lest the
Afghan war burn Obama’s presidency in the same way
Iraq consumed George W. Bush’s.
Still, it is important to remember the origins of the Afpak problem.

A covert U.S.
war against the nine-year Soviet military intervention in
Afghanistan
helped instil an Afpak jihad culture and create Frankensteins like Osama bin
Laden and Mullah Mohammad Omar. It was at a mid-1980s White House ceremony
attended by some turbaned and bearded Afpak “holy warriors” that President
Ronald Reagan proclaimed
mujahideen leaders the “moral equivalent of the
found
ing fathers” of America. Now a
second military intervention in
Afghanistan
since 2001 — this time by the
U.S.,
with the aid of NATO and other allied troops — has further destabilized the
region.

Yet, in trying to salvage the overt U.S. war in Afghanistan, Obama is ignoring the
lessons of the earlier covert war and unwittingly seeking to repeat history. In
the same way the
U.S.
created
mujahideen by funnelling
billions of dollars worth of arms to them in the 1980s, Washington is now
setting up local militias and warlords across
Afghanistan. And just as the covert
war’s imperatives prompted the U.S. in the 1980s to provide multibillion-dollar
aid packages to Pakistan while turning a blind eye to its nuclear-smuggling and
other illicit trans-border activities, Washington is now showering
unprecedented aid on that country while seeking to neither bring the rogue
Inter-Services Intelligence under civilian oversight nor subject the now-free A.Q.
Khan to international questioning. The
U.S.
indeed has increased its cooperation with the Pakistani military, including new
joint CIA-ISI missions in tribal areas, commando training to Frontier Corps and
sharing of
U.S.
intercepts of militant cellular and satellite phone calls.

Before long, the new militias would be
terrorizing local populations. The new breed of warlords would likely foster
anarchy. T
he Americans will leave behind an Afghan
government too weak to enforce its writ and a new tribe of warlords eager to
challenge central authority.

Today, America
is unable to stop the misuse of its large annual military aid by
Pakistan or
account for the arms it has supplied to Afghan security forces. Controlling
non-state actors is even harder. That
is the lesson from the rise of the Afghan Taliban, fathered by the ISI and
endorsed by
U.S. policy as a
way out of the chaos that engulfed
Afghanistan after President
Najibullah’s 1992 ouster.

Just because Afghan security forces are not yet
sufficiently large or adequately groomed to take over the fight cannot justify
the setting up of more militias in a country already swarming with armed
militiamen.

Obama’s Afghan strategy should be
viewed as a shortsighted strategy intent on repeating the very mistakes of
American policy on
Afghanistan
and
Pakistan over the past
three decades that have come to haunt
U.S. security and that of the rest
of the free world. Obama is
giving
priority to what is politically expedient than to long-term interests — the
very mistake that gave rise to the phenomenon of jihadist transnational terror.