India’s final Nuclear Separation Plan: Official text as presented to Parliament


Implementation of the India-U.S. Joint Statement of July 18, 2005:

India’s Separation Plan

 

[as presented to Parliament on May 11, 2006, by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh]

 

 

It would be recalled that on March 7, 2006, I had tabled for the information of the Hon’ble Members a document entitled “India-U.S. civilian nuclear energy understanding: India’s Separation Plan”, that accompanied my statement in the House on the subject, “India-U.S. civilian nuclear energy understanding: India’s Separation Plan”.

 

            Paragraphs 14(i) and (v) of that document had stated that further details would be added in regard to the specific reactors that would be offered for safeguards and phasing, and in regard to facilities of the Nuclear Fuel Complex that would similarly be offered for safeguards. Those details have now been added and the complete text of the same document is enclosed.

 

            This document is being laid on the Table of the House for the attention of the Hon’ble Members as the full and complete text of India’s Separation Plan.

 

Implementation of the India-United States Joint Statement of July 18, 2005: India’s Separation Plan

The resumption of full civilian nuclear energy cooperation between India and the United States arose in the context of India’s requirement for adequate and affordable energy supplies to sustain its accelerating economic growth rate and as recognition of its growing technological prowess. It was preceded by discussions between the two Governments, particularly between President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, of the global energy scenario and the long-term implications of increasing pressure on hydrocarbon resources and rising oil prices. These developments led to the announcement in April 2005 of an Indo-US Energy Dialogue that encompassed the entire spectrum of energy options ranging from oil and gas to coal, alternative fuels and civilian nuclear energy. Through the initiation of a sustained dialogue to address energy security concerns, the two countries sought to promote stable, efficient, predictable and cost effective solutions for India’s growing requirements. At the same time, they also agreed on the need to develop and deploy cleaner, more efficient, affordable and diversified energy technologies to deal with the environmental implications of energy consumption. India had developed proven and wide-ranging capabilities in the nuclear sector, including over the entire nuclear fuel cycle. It is internationally recognized that India has unique contributions to make to international efforts towards meeting these objectives. India has become a full partner in ITER, with the full support of the US and other partners. India also accepted the US invitation to join the initiative on Clean Development Partnership.

2. Noting the centrality of civilian nuclear energy to the twin challenges of energy security and safeguarding the environment, the two Governments agreed on 18 July 2005 to undertake reciprocal commitments and responsibilities that would create a framework for the resumption of full cooperation in this field. On its part, the United States undertook to:

·  Seek agreement from the Congress to adjust US laws and policies to achieve full civil nuclear energy cooperation.

 

·  Work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India, including but not limited to expeditious consideration of fuel supplies for safeguarded nuclear reactors at Tarapur.

 

·  In the meantime, encourage its partners to consider fuel supply to Tarapur expeditiously.

 

·  To consult with its partners to consider India’s participation in ITER.

 

·  To consult with other participants in the Generation-IV International Forum with a view towards India’s inclusion.

3. India had conveyed its readiness to assume the same responsibilities and practices and acquire the same benefits and advantages as other leading countries with advanced nuclear technology, such as the United States. Accordingly, India for its part undertook the following commitments:

·  Identifying and separating civilian and military nuclear facilities and programmes in a phased manner.

 

·  Filing a declaration regarding its civilian facilities with the IAEA.

 

·  Taking a decision to place voluntarily its civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, and

 

·  Signing and adhering to an Additional Protocol with respect to civilian nuclear facilities.

4. Other commitments undertaken by India have already been fulfilled in the last year. Among them are:

·  India’s responsible non-proliferation record, recognized by the US, continues and is reflected in its policies and actions.

 

·  The harmonization of India’s export controls with NSG [Nuclear Suppliers’ Group] and MTCR [Missile Technology Control Regime] Guidelines even though India is not a member of either group. These guidelines and control lists have been notified and are being implemented.

 

·  A significant upgrading of India’s non-proliferation regulations and export controls has taken place as a result of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Act of May 2005. Inter-Ministerial consultations are ongoing to examine and amend other relevant Acts as well as framing appropriate rules and regulations.

 

·  Refrain from transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that do not have them and supporting international efforts to limit their spread. This has guided our policy on non-proliferation.

 

·  Continued unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing, and

 

·  Willingness to work with the United States for the conclusion of a multilateral Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty.

5. The Joint Statement of July 18, 2005, recognized that India is ready to assume the same responsibilities and practices as other leading countries with advanced nuclear technology, such as the United States. India has an impeccable record in non-proliferation. The Joint Statement acknowledges that India’s nuclear programme has both a military and a civilian component. Both sides had agreed that the purpose was not to constrain India’s strategic programme but to enable resumption of full civil nuclear energy cooperation in order to enhance global energy and environmental security. Such cooperation was predicated on the assumption that any international civil nuclear energy cooperation (including by the U.S.) offered to India in the civilian sector should, firstly, not be diverted away from civilian purposes, and secondly, should not be transferred from India to third countries without safeguards. These concepts will be reflected in the Safeguards Agreement to be negotiated by India with IAEA.

6. India’s nuclear programme is unique as it is the only state with nuclear weapons not to have begun with a dedicated military programme. It must be appreciated that the strategic programme is an offshoot of research on nuclear power programme and consequently, it is embedded in a larger undifferentiated programme. Identification of purely civilian facilities and programmes that have no strategic implications poses a particular challenge. Therefore, facilities identified as civilian in the Separation Plan will be offered for safeguards in phases to be decided by India. The nature of the facility concerned, the activities undertaken in it, the national security significance of materials and the location of the facilities are factors taken into account in undertaking the separation process. This is solely an Indian determination.

7.The nuclear establishment in India not only built nuclear reactors but promoted the growth of a national industrial infrastructure. Nuclear power generation was envisaged as a three-stage programme with PHWRs [pressurized heavy-water reactors] chosen for deployment in the first stage. As indigenous reactors were set up, several innovative design improvements were carried out based on Indian R&D and a standardized design was evolved. The research and technology development spanned the entire spectrum of the nuclear fuel cycle including the front end and the back end. Success in the technologies for the back end of the fuel cycle allowed us to launch the second stage of the programme by constructing a Fast Breeder Test Reactor. This reactor has operated for 20 years based on a unique carbide fuel and has achieved all technology objectives. We have now proceeded further and are constructing a 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Simultaneously, we have launched design and development of reactors aimed at thorium utilization and incorporating inherent safety features.

8.Concepts such as grid connectivity are not relevant to the separation exercise. Issues related to fuel resource sustainability, technical design and economic viability, as well as smooth operation of reactors are relevant factors. This would necessitate grid connectivity irrespective of whether the reactor concerned is civilian or not civilian.

9.It must be recognized that the Indian nuclear programme still has a relatively narrow base and cannot be expected to adopt solutions that might be deemed viable by much larger programmes. A comparison of the number of reactors and the total installed capacity between India and the P-5 brings this out graphically:

Country–Number of Reactors–Total Installed Capacity

India 15 3.04 GWe (2.8% of the total production)

USA 104 (103 operational) 99.21 GWe (19.9% of the total production)

France 59 63.36 GWe (78.1% of the total production)

UK 23 11.85 GWe (19.4% of the total production)

Russia 31 21.74 GWe (15.6% of the total production)

China 9 6.602 GWe (2.2% of the total production)

Source: Nuclear Energy Institute, Washington DC

10. Another factor to be taken into account is the small capacity of the reactors produced indigenously by India, some of which would remain outside safeguards. Therefore, in assessing the extent of safeguards coverage, it would be important to look at both the number of reactors and the percentage of installed capacity covered. An average Indian reactor is of 220 MW and its output is significantly smaller than the standards reactor in a P-5 economy. The chart below illustrates this aspect:

Country–Most Common reactor–Number of such reactors

India PHWRs 220 MWe 12

USA 69 PWRs and 34 BWRs (Most plants are in the range of 1000-1250 MWe); 51 Reactors in the range

of 1000 MWe to 1250 MWe

France PWRs of 900 MWe and 1300 MWe size; 34 PWRs of 900 MWe and 20 PWRs of 1300 MWe

UK No standard size. AGR is the most common in the range of 600-700 MWe;14 AGRs

Russia 3rd Generation VVER-1000 PWRs and RBMK 1000 Light, Water Graphite Reactors; 9 third Generation VVER-

1000 PWRs and 11 RBMK 1000 Light Water Graphite Reactors

China PWRs 984 MWe; Four

Source: Uranium Information Centre, Melbourne

11. The complexity of the separation process is further enhanced by the limited resources that India has devoted to its nuclear programme as compared to P-5 nations. Moreover, as India expands international cooperation, the percentage of its thermal power reactor installed capacity under safeguards would rise significantly as fresh capacity is added through such cooperation.

12. India’s approach to the separation of its civilian nuclear facilities is guided by the following principles:

· Credible, feasible and implementable in a transparent manner;

 

· Consistent with the understandings of the 18 July Statement;

 

· Consistent with India’s national security and R&D requirements as well as not prejudicial to the three-stage nuclear programme in India;

 

· Must be cost-effective in its implementation; and

 

· Must be acceptable to Parliament and public opinion.

13. Based on these principles, India will:

· Include in the civilian list only those facilities offered for safeguards that, after separation, will no longer be engaged in activities of strategic significance.

 

· The overarching criterion would be a judgment whether subjecting a facility to IAEA safeguards would impact adversely on India’s national security.

 

· However, a facility will be excluded from the civilian list if it is located in a larger hub of strategic significance, notwithstanding the fact that it may not be normally engaged in activities of strategic significance.

 

· A civilian facility would, therefore, be one that India has determined not to be relevant to its strategic programme.

14. Taking the above into account, India, on the basis of reciprocal actions by the US, will adopt the following approach:

(i) Thermal Power Reactors: India will identify and offer for safeguards 14 thermal power reactors between 2006 and 2014. This will include the 4 presently safeguarded reactors (TAPS 1&2, RAPS 1&2) and in addition KK 1&2 that are under construction. 8 other PHWRs, each of a capacity of 220 MW, will be offered. The overall plan will be as follows [name of facility is followed by the year offered for safeguards]:                        

 

  1. TAPS 1           2006
  2. TAPS 2           2006
  3. RAPS 1           2006
  4. RAPS 2           2006
  5. KK  1              2006
  6. KK 2               2006
  7. RAPS 5           2007
  8. RAPS 6           2008
  9. RAPS 3           2010
  10. RAPS 4           2010
  11. KAPS 1           2012
  12. KAPS 2           2012
  13. NAPS 1           2014
  14. NAPS 2           2014

 

The above offer would, in effect, cover 14 out of the 22 thermal power reactors in operation or currently under construction to be placed under safeguards, and would raise the total installed Thermal Power capacity by MWe under safeguards from the present 19% to 65% by 2014.

 (ii) Fast Breeder Reactors: India is not in a position to accept safeguards on the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) and the Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR), both located at Kalpakkam. The Fast Breeder Programme is at the R&D stage and its technology will take time to mature and reach an advanced stage of development.

(iii) Future Reactors: India has decided to place under safeguards all future civilian thermal power reactors and civilian breeder reactors, and the Government of India retains the sole right to determine such reactors as civilian.

(iv) Research Reactors: India will permanently shut down the CIRUS reactor, in 2010. It will also be prepared to shift the fuel core of the APSARA reactor that was purchased from France outside BARC [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre] and make the fuel core available to be placed under safeguards in 2010.

(v) Upstream facilities: The following upstream facilities would be identified and separated as civilian:

· List of specific facilities in the Nuclear Fuel Complex, Hyderabad, which will be offered for safeguards by 2008 is given below:

 

·        Uranium Oxide Plant (Block A)

·        Ceramic Fuel Fabrication Plant (Palletizing) (Block A)

·        Ceramic Fuel Fabrication Plant (Assembly) (Block A)

·        Enriched Uranium Oxide Plant

·        Enriched Fuel Fabrication Plant

·        Gadolinia Facility

 

· The Heavy Water Production plants at Thal, Tuticorin and Hazira are proposed to be designated for civilian use between 2006-2009. We do not consider these plants as relevant for safeguards purposes.

(vi) Downstream facilities: The following downstream facilities would be identified and separated as civilian:

· India is willing to accept safeguards in the ‘campaign’ mode after 2010 in respect of the Tarapur Power Reactor Fuel Reprocessing Plant.

 

· The Tarapur and Rajasthan ‘Away From Reactors’ spent fuel storage pools would be made available for safeguards with appropriate phasing between 2006-2009.

(vii) Research Facilities: India will declare the following facilities as civilian:

(a) Tata Institute of Fundamental Research

(b) Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre

(c) Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics

(d) Institute for Plasma Research

(e) Institute of Mathematics Sciences

(f) Institute of Physics

(g) Tata Memorial Centre

(h) Board of Radiation and Isotope Technology

(i) Harish Chandra Research Institute

These facilities are safeguards-irrelevant. It is our expectation that they will play a prominent role in international cooperation.

15. Safeguards:

(a) The United States has conveyed its commitment to the reliable supply of fuel to India. Consistent with the July 18, 2005, Joint Statement, the United States has also reaffirmed its assurance to create the necessary conditions for India to have assured and full access to fuel for its reactors. As part of its implementation of the July 18, 2005, Joint Statement the United States is committed to seeking agreement from the U.S. Congress to amend its domestic laws and to work with friends and allies to adjust the practices of the Nuclear Suppliers Group to create the necessary conditions for India to obtain full access to the international fuel market, including reliable, uninterrupted and continual access to fuel supplies from firms in several nations.

(b) To further guard against any disruption of fuel supplies, the United States is prepared to take the following additional steps:

(i) The United States is willing to incorporate assurances regarding fuel supply in the bilateral U.S.-India agreement on peaceful uses of nuclear energy under Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act, which would be submitted to the U.S. Congress.

(ii) The United States will join India in seeking to negotiate with the IAEA an India-specific fuel supply agreement.

(iii) The United States will support an Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of India’s reactors.

(iv) If despite these arrangements, a disruption of fuel supplies to India occurs, the United States and India would jointly convene a group of friendly supplier countries to include countries such as Russia, France and the United Kingdom to pursue such measures as would restore fuel supply to India.

(c) In light of the above understandings with the United States, an India-specific safeguards agreement will be negotiated between India and the IAEA providing for safeguards to guard against withdrawal of safeguarded nuclear material from civilian use at any time as well as providing for corrective measures that India may take to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies. Taking this into account, India will place its civilian nuclear facilities under India-specific safeguards in perpetuity and negotiate an appropriate safeguards agreement to this end with the IAEA.

16. This plan is in conformity with the commitments made to Parliament by the Government.

May 11, 2006

Full official text of the U.S.-India nuclear deal unveiled on July 18, 2005

Joint Statement Between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

July 18, 2005, Washington, D.C.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Bush today declare their resolve to transform the relationship between their countries and establish a global partnership. As leaders of nations committed to the values of human freedom, democracy and rule of law, the new relationship between India and the United States will promote stability, democracy, prosperity and peace throughout the world. It will enhance our ability to work together to provide global leadership in areas of mutual concern and interest.

Building on their common values and interests, the two leaders resolve:

■ To create an international environment conducive to promotion of democratic values, and to strengthen democratic practices in societies which wish to become more open and pluralistic.

■ To combat terrorism relentlessly. They applaud the active and vigorous counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries and support more international efforts in this direction. Terrorism is a global scourge and the one we will fight everywhere. The two leaders strongly affirm their commitment to the conclusion by September of a UN comprehensive convention against international terrorism.

The Prime Minister’s visit coincides with the completion of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) initiative, launched in January 2004. The two leaders agree that this provides the basis for expanding bilateral activities and commerce in space, civil nuclear energy and dual-use technology.

Drawing on their mutual vision for the U.S.-India relationship, and our joint objectives as strong long-standing democracies, the two leaders agree on the following:

FOR THE ECONOMY

■ Revitalize the U.S.-India Economic Dialogue and launch a CEO Forum to harness private sector energy and ideas to deepen the bilateral economic relationship.

■ Support and accelerate economic growth in both countries through greater trade, investment, and technology collaboration.

■ Promote modernization of India’s infrastructure as a prerequisite for the continued growth of the Indian economy. As India enhances its investment climate, opportunities for investment will increase.

■ Launch a U.S.-India Knowledge Initiative on Agriculture focused on promoting teaching, research, service and commercial linkages.

FOR ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

■ Strengthen energy security and promote the development of stable and efficient energy markets in India with a view to ensuring adequate, affordable energy supplies and conscious of the need for sustainable development. These issues will be addressed through the U.S.-India Energy Dialogue.

■ Agree on the need to promote the imperatives of development and safeguarding the environment, commit to developing and deploying cleaner, more efficient, affordable, and diversified energy technologies.

FOR DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT

■ Develop and support, through the new U.S.-India Global Democracy Initiative in countries that seek such assistance, institutions and resources that strengthen the foundations that make democracies credible and effective. India and the U.S. will work together to strengthen democratic practices and capacities and contribute to the new U.N. Democracy Fund.

■ Commit to strengthen cooperation and combat HIV/AIDs at a global level through an initiative that mobilizes private sector and government resources, knowledge, and expertise.

FOR NON-PROLIFERATION AND SECURITY

■ Express satisfaction at the New Framework for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship as a basis for future cooperation, including in the field of defense technology.

■ Commit to play a leading role in international efforts to prevent the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. The U.S. welcomed the adoption by India of legislation on WMD (Prevention of Unlawful Activities Bill).

■ Launch a new U.S.-India Disaster Relief Initiative that builds on the experience of the Tsunami Core Group, to strengthen cooperation to prepare for and conduct disaster relief operations.

FOR HIGH-TECHNOLOGY AND SPACE

■ Sign a Science and Technology Framework Agreement, building on the U.S.-India High-Technology Cooperation Group (HTCG), to provide for joint research and training, and the establishment of public-private partnerships.

■ Build closer ties in space exploration, satellite navigation and launch, and in the commercial space arena through mechanisms such as the U.S.-India Working Group on Civil Space Cooperation.

■ Building on the strengthened nonproliferation commitments undertaken in the NSSP, to remove certain Indian organizations from the Department of Commerce’s Entity List.

Recognizing the significance of civilian nuclear energy for meeting growing global energy demands in a cleaner and more efficient manner, the two leaders discussed India’s plans to develop its civilian nuclear energy program.

President Bush conveyed his appreciation to the Prime Minister over India’s strong commitment to preventing WMD proliferation and stated that as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology, India should acquire the same benefits and advantages as other such states. The President told the Prime Minister that he will work to achieve full civil nuclear energy cooperation with India as it realizes its goals of promoting nuclear power and achieving energy security. The President would also seek agreement from Congress to adjust U.S. laws and policies, and the United States will work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India, including but not limited to expeditious consideration of fuel supplies for safeguarded nuclear reactors at Tarapur. In the meantime, the United States will encourage its partners to also consider this request expeditiously. India has expressed its interest in ITER and a willingness to contribute. The United States will consult with its partners considering India’s participation. The United States will consult with the other participants in the Generation IV International Forum with a view toward India’s inclusion.

The Prime Minister conveyed that for his part, India would reciprocally agree that it would be ready to assume the same responsibilities and practices and acquire the same benefits and advantages as other leading countries with advanced nuclear technology, such as the United States. These responsibilities and practices consist of identifying and separating civilian and military nuclear facilities and programs in a phased manner and filing a declaration regarding its civilians facilities with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); taking a decision to place voluntarily its civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards; signing and adhering to an Additional Protocol with respect to civilian nuclear facilities; continuing India’s unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing; working with the United States for the conclusion of a multilateral Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty; refraining from transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that do not have them and supporting international efforts to limit their spread; and ensuring that the necessary steps have been taken to secure nuclear materials and technology through comprehensive export control legislation and through harmonization and adherence to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines.

The President welcomed the Prime Minister’s assurance. The two leaders agreed to establish a working group to undertake on a phased basis in the months ahead the necessary actions mentioned above to fulfill these commitments. The President and Prime Minister also agreed that they would review this progress when the President visits India in 2006.

The two leaders also reiterated their commitment that their countries would play a leading role in international efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological weapons.

In light of this closer relationship, and the recognition of India’s growing role in enhancing regional and global security, the Prime Minister and the President agree that international institutions must fully reflect changes in the global scenario that have taken place since 1945. The President reiterated his view that international institutions are going to have to adapt to reflect India’s central and growing role. The two leaders state their expectations that India and the United States will strengthen their cooperation in global forums.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh thanks President Bush for the warmth of his reception and the generosity of his hospitality. He extends an invitation to President Bush to visit India at his convenience and the President accepts that invitation.

Chinese Strategy Against India

Don’t Get Cowed Down
 
China aims to keep India on the defensive
 
Brahma Chellaney

The Times of India, October 2, 2007

In what has become a 26-year-old saga of unending negotiations to settle the Himalayan territorial disputes, India and China have ended yet another round of talks in typical fashion – acclaiming the discussions as constructive and worth continuation. Let’s be clear: Staying put in a barren process that offers little hope of a breakthrough works to China’s strategic advantage. It provides China diplomatic cover to be intractable and revanchist, as underscored by the way it has provocatively upped the ante since last November.

India and China stand out in the world today as the only neighbours not separated even by a mutually defined frontline. The task of clarifying the long line of control – initiated by Indira Gandhi in 1981 – was abandoned by the Vajpayee government in 2003 under the persuasion of Beijing, which by then had already reneged on its commitment to exchange maps of the contentious western and eastern sectors. Instead, the two countries have since pursued the more-ambitious goal of a complete border settlement, defining six “guiding” principles in 2005 and now seeking a framework for such a resolution.

Yet the truth is that like in the aborted task to define the frontline, China is loath to go beyond the first step. It took two decades of negotiations before Beijing exchanged maps with India of just one sector – the least-disputed middle segment. Having done that, it then broke its word on the other two sectors. After the process restarted on a different pathway in 2003, it took several rounds of bilateral negotiations – with a succession of three Indian national security advisers participating in the exercise – before China agreed to the six broad principles with India.

These noble but simple principles can hardly lay the basis for a frontier settlement: “a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution through consultations on an equal footing”; “meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments to their respective positions”; “due consideration to each other’s strategic and reasonable interests”; “take into account, inter alia, historical evidence, national sentiments, practical difficulties and reasonable concerns and sensitivities of both sides, and the actual state of border areas”; the “boundary should be along well-defined and easily identifiable natural geographical features to be mutually agreed upon”; and “safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the border areas”.

Still, it did not take long for Beijing to repudiate one key principle – not to upset settled populations. That this disclaimer came a few months after the Chinese ambassador’s Beijing-supported bellicose public statement on Arunachal Pradesh was positive proof of China’s calculated hardening of its stance. Having wrung the concessions it desired from India on Tibet, Beijing is now presenting Arunachal as an outstanding issue that demands “give and take”, ingeniously putting the onus on India to achieve progress.

Lest the message be missed, New Delhi is being repeatedly exhorted to make concessions on Tawang – a critical corridor between Lhasa and the Assam valley of immense military import because it overlooks the chicken-neck that connects India with its north-east.

Make no mistake: The core issue remains Tibet. To focus on Arunachal or even Tawang is not only to miss the wood for the trees, but also to play into China’s attempts at incremental territorial annexation. Having gobbled up Tibet, Beijing now lays claim to Indian territories, on the basis not of any purported Han connection, but of Tibetan Buddhist ecclesiastical influence or alleged long-standing tutelary relations with them. Ecclesiastical influence or even tutelary ties cannot signify political control of one region over another.

In any event, China has forcibly separated from Tibet two regions where Tibetan ecclesiastical jurisdiction and political control were undisputed – Amdo (the birthplace of the present Dalai Lama) and Kham. These have been incorporated into the Han provinces of Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan. Before claiming Tawang to be part of Tibet, China should first restore Amdo and Kham to Tibet and its tutelary lamas. In fact, a correct analogy to China’s expansionist territorial demands would be Saddam Hussein’s claim, following his 1990 invasion of Kuwait, to areas in Saudi Arabia on the basis of alleged Kuwaiti links to them.

When India shifted from the practical task of frontline clarification to the elusive pre-1962-style search for a border settlement on the basis of vacuous principles, it should have known that Chinese diplomacy’s forte is to enunciate elastic principles with another state and then reinterpret them later to add force to official claims.

Indeed, the history of Sino-Indian relations is largely a narrative of high-sounding principles being framed, only to lull India into a false sense of complacency.

The 1954 Panchsheel Agreement, under which India forfeited all its extraterritorial rights and privileges in Tibet without securing any quid pro quo, had defined five principles of peaceful coexistence. Yet eight years later, China carried out a full-scale invasion of India. Indeed, no sooner had that accord been signed than Beijing began laying claim to or stealthily intruding into areas south of the identified border points. Little surprise thus that the road from 1954 to 2007 is littered with shattered principles. Given that Beijing is today unwilling to accept the territorial status quo as the basis for a settlement, India needs a more nuanced, realistic and leverage-playing approach.

(The writer is a strategic affairs analyst.)

 
Copyright Times of India, 2007

A still-mythical global nuclear renaissance

Hype on nuclear power is misleading

 

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY

© The Japan Times

 

Talk of a "global nuclear renaissance" remains just that — all talk. Notwithstanding the strong public relations campaign by the nuclear power industry and its powerful lobbying groups, nuclear energy is hardly the answer to the twin challenges of carbon mitigation and energy security that the world confronts.

Indeed, ever since the talk began in the mid-1990s, the share of nuclear power in global electricity has stagnated at 16 percent. Today, 429 power reactors worldwide generate 370 gigawatts of electricity, with just another 24 under construction, mostly in developing countries.

Yet such is the hype that Washington and New Delhi are seeking to sell a controversial nuclear deal to their skeptical publics by speciously presenting nuclear power as the answer to India’s rapidly growing energy needs. Despite tax concessions and other sops, the Bush administration, however, is still trying to revive the moribund U.S. nuclear power industry, with not a single new plant currently under construction.

Actually, the U.S. is counting on the deal with India to revitalize its own industry. As Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice put it, "India plans to import eight nuclear reactors by 2012. If U.S. companies win just two of those reactor contracts, it will mean thousands of new jobs for American workers. We plan to expand our civilian nuclear partnership to research and development, drawing on India’s technological expertise to promote a global renaissance in safe and clean nuclear power." But in India, the deal is beginning to unravel the government, making a midterm national election a virtual certainty.

Owing to the global warming crisis, nuclear power is no longer a hobgoblin to some environmentalists. With the power sector responsible for 24 percent of all carbon-dioxide emissions in the world, cleaner means to produce electricity are necessary. Yet, for 10 distinct reasons, nuclear power is unlikely to make any real dent in global greenhouse-gas emissions or be a cost-effective answer to the growing electricity demands:

After declining for a quarter-century, the world nuclear power industry lacks the capacity to undertake a massive construction program that could make a noticeable difference to global warming. While nuclear power generation itself is "clean," the nuclear fuel cycle is carbon-intensive, with greenhouse gases emitted in mining and enriching uranium with fossil fuels. Reactor construction also carries large carbon footprints. In addition, radioactive wastes from reactor operation pose technological challenges and inestimable environmental costs.

While nuclear-power proponents trumpet the emission-free front end, opponents cite the back end of nuclear power that is exceptionally problematic.

Independent studies worldwide show that electricity generated through currently available nuclear technologies is not cost-competitive with other conventional sources. Also, nuclear power is highly capital-intensive. The reason why not a single new power reactor in the U.S. has been built after the last one ordered in 1970 is largely economics. Two separate studies by the University of Chicago (2004) and MIT (2003) computed the baseline cost of new nuclear power at 6.2 to 6.7 cents per kilowatt hour, compared with 3.3 to 4.2 cents for pulverized "clean" coal and 3.5 to 5.6 cents for a combined-cycle natural gas plant.

Little surprise, therefore, that more than 100 planned reactors were canceled in the U.S. in the period since 1970.

Resource-poor France and Japan remain exceptions to the global reluctance to embrace nuclear power in a major way. Despite the new intense Chinese interest in nuclear power, the reactors under construction or planned will increase the share of nuclear energy to barely 5 percent of China’s total generated electricity.

The world’s uranium stocks are limited and unless breeder technology is embraced in a big way or the higher-grade ores reserved for military programs are freed, the known uranium reserves may last barely 85 years, according to calculations published in the joint OECD-International Atomic Energy Agency Red Book.

Nuclear-fuel costs are escalating sharply because the international price of uranium has been rising faster than any other commodity. While the price of coal, measured in a two-decade time frame, has dropped, the spot price of uranium more than quadrupled just during 2004-07. Australia holds 41 percent of the known global uranium reserves, yet has not built a single nuclear power plant.

The lead time for construction of a power plant from any energy source other than large-scale hydropower is the highest for nuclear power. While a power reactor takes five to six years from start to finish, a gas-fired plant takes two years and a windmill even less.

Because of its potentially serious hazards, nuclear power faces a uniquely stringent regulatory regime, which adds to time and liability, along with associated costs of operational safety and spent-fuel management.

A tiny nuclear cartel made up of a few state-guided firms controls the global reactor and fuel supplies. This constitutes the most politically regulated and monopolized commerce in the world, with little sanctity of contract, as several cases in the past have showed. That is why many countries today view the idea of an international nuclear fuel bank as institutionalizing discrimination because it would allow a handful of advanced countries to preserve their supply monopoly.

Nuclear power involves significant external costs that the industry does not bear on its own, including costs related to accident-liability coverage, antiterrorist safeguards, radioactive-waste storage, retirement of old reactors, and international monitoring. State subsidies are not factored into the generating costs and thus remain hidden.

More than half a century after the then chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Agency, Lewis Strauss, claimed that nuclear power would become "too cheap to meter," the nuclear-power industry subsists on state support — from subsidies to loan guarantees.

Nuclear power tends to put serious strain on water resources. The Light Water Reactors (LWRs) that make up the bulk of installed nuclear-power capacity are highly water-intensive, which sets a limit on where they can be located. As they copiously use water as a coolant, the LWRs appropriate large quantities of locally available water. Worse, they pump the hot-water reactor outflow back into rivers, reservoirs and oceans in a continuous cycle, damaging or altering plant and fish ecosystems.

As global warming accelerates and average temperatures and the ocean level rise, the LWRs will be particularly vulnerable and be less able to generate electricity at their rated capacity. Water shortages caused by climate change would adversely impinge on LWR operations when such reactors are dependent on waters from rivers or lakes.

During the intense 2003 heat wave in France, 17 reactors had to be scaled back in operation or turned off because of the rapid rise in river or lake temperatures, while Spain’s nuclear power reactor at Santa Maria de Garona was shut for a week in July 2006 after high temperatures were recorded in the Ebro River.

Reactors by the sea, of course, are better situated because they do not face similar problems in hot conditions. But what a global warming-induced rise in the ocean level would do was illustrated by the December 2004 tsunami, which inundated India’s second-largest nuclear complex and shut down the twin-reactor Madras nuclear power station.

Without a breakthrough in fusion energy or greater commercial advances in breeder reactors, nuclear power is in no position to lead the world out of the age of fossil fuels.

The path to energy and climate security lies through carbon-free renewable energy, which by harnessing nature frees a nation from reliance on external sources of fuel supply. A shift toward "renewables" is critical, given that global energy demand is projected to rise by 53 percent in 2030 from 2004. To achieve the transition to a world less reliant on carbon-based fuels, a massive increase in research and development on renewable technologies is called for.

Wind power is already less inexpensive than nuclear power worldwide. Given that wind power often can be more abundantly generated at night while solar power is economical in sunny hours, the two can be integrated into a common grid to help overcome intermittence.

Renewables can provide both base-load power to the grid (including from hydropower and geothermal and biomass-fueled plants) and intermittent loads (such as from solar thermal generators).

Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies with the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, is a regular contributor to The Japan Times.

 

The Japan Times: Thursday, Sept. 27, 2007

(C) All rights reserved

Brahma Chellaney’s rejoinder to Science & Technology Minister Kapil Sibal’s reply

123 Questions Won’t Go Away – A Rejoinder

 

The terms of civil nuclear cooperation with India have been unequivocally defined by the Hyde Act, a 41-page anthology of conditions. No other 123 agreement is governed by such a country-specific law.

 

Brahma Chellaney

The Hindu, September 19, 2007

 

Kapil Sibal jumbles up my15 sets of questions to reply selectively or make statements that are either specious (the 123 Agreement will “override” the Hyde Act) or imaginary, such as the advent of a global “nuclear renaissance” or the accord conferring “de jure nuclear-weapons-state” status. The government, instead of utilising Mr Sibal’s legal acumen when the text was being negotiated, has drafted him after the event to help beat back a rising political storm at home. His assertions thus are largely political.

 

First, Mr. Sibal does not deny the following:

(i)                           the operational consent to reprocess will have to await India’s construction of a new United States-approved reprocessing facility and the negotiation thereafter of a separate agreement that would need to pass congressional muster;

(ii)                          as in the ill-fated 1963 Indo-U.S. 123 Agreement, India has again settled for toothless “consultations”;

(iii)                        the U.S. is empowered to suspend all cooperation forthwith, without having to assign any reason or bring in an alternative supplier;

(iv)                        while American law seeks to regulate only spent fuel of U.S.-origin, New Delhi has agreed to route all “foreign nuclear material” through the new reprocessing facility;

(v)                         there is no enforceable link between perpetual international inspections and perpetual fuel supply; and

(vi)                        the ambiguities in the text relate to vital issues for India.

 

Second, India can miss no bus because a “nuclear renaissance” remains chimerical. Even the Prime Minister has referred merely to the “talk the world over of a nuclear renaissance.” In fact, ever since such talk began in the mid-1990s, the share of nuclear power in global electricity has stagnated at 16 per cent. Today, 429 power reactors worldwide generate 370 gW, with just another 24 under construction, but none in the U.S. Ironically, as Finance Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh starved the indigenous nuclear-power programme of funds for expansion. The nation has a right to know whether his new-found interest in nuclear power is centred on imports.

 

Third, Mr. Sibal plays to the public gallery when he argues that the 123 Agreement, once ratified, will be “the last expression of the sovereign will and override all other laws including national laws.” When in 1978 the U.S. rewrote the terms of its then-existing 123 Agreement with India by enacting a new national law, New Delhi was left helpless. India took the stance that although the accord did not constitute an international treaty, it had the “force” of a treaty because of congressional ratification. Yet it did not approach the International Court of Justice (ICJ) because it realised it had no real case.

 

How can Mr. Sibal go one step further and present the new agreement as a treaty that will override U.S. law? America’s consistent position has been that a 123 agreement with any state is neither a treaty nor has force under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (which the U.S. hasn’t even ratified, although American officials admit that much of the Convention reflects binding customary international law). Far from the new 123 Agreement overriding American law, both sides have been at pains to emphasise that it complies with U.S. law! U.S. Undersecretary Nicholas Burns has said “we have the Hyde Act. And we kept reminding the Indian side, and they were good enough to negotiate on this basis, that anything we did had to fall within and respect the legal guidelines that Congress had set forth.” Indian National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, in an interview to this newspaper published on July 28, 2007, said: “As far as we are concerned, we haven’t breached the Hyde Act … We have seen to [it] that no law is broken.”

 

Fourth, before seeking to inventively set apart the operative portions from the “non-binding” parts of the Hyde Act, Mr. Sibal would do well to read the Tarapur debates in Congress, where India, after its 1974 nuclear test, was held not just to the letter of U.S. law but also to the intent behind such law. Today, unlike in the past, the terms of civil nuclear cooperation with India have been unequivocally defined by a unique law, the Hyde Act, a 41-page anthology of conditions. No other 123 agreement is governed by such a country-specific law. Even after the 123 Agreement with India takes effect, the Hyde Act’s post-implementation conditions will remain operative — from an annual presidential certification to ensuring India’s “full compliance” with a non-nuclear, U.S.-led cartel like the Missile Technology Control Regime.

 

Fifth, the agreement does not incorporate the international-law principle that neither party will invoke its internal law as justification for a failure to honour the accord, or provide for an arbitral tribunal in case of any dispute. Mr. Sibal’s contention that the omission of that principle in the text “does not result in its inapplicability” is hardly plausible, given that the principle applies only to a treaty but America does not accord treaty status to the agreement. Mr. Sibal is also silent on why the U.S. granted Japan and EURATOM the actual right to reprocess upfront but India is to negotiate a separate Section 131 deal in the years ahead.

 

Sixth, Mr. Sibal contends that in all 123 agreements either party can “in the interim, suspend cooperation without assigning reasons” but the accord with India is “unique” because it “provides for a one-year notice of termination along with reasons.” He is mistaken on both counts. In most 123 agreements, not just termination but also suspension is tied to precise triggers. For example, the Japan-U.S. Agreement permits either party to cease or terminate cooperation only when there is non-compliance with the accord’s provisions or the arbitral tribunal’s decisions or a material breach of safeguards. Yet India has armed the U.S. with an open-ended right to suspend supplies straight away while issuing a one-year termination notice by citing any reason it wishes. The India-U.S. Agreement is “unique” in that the recipient has willingly put its faith in the abiding goodwill of the supplier, which is to enforce the Hyde Act’s stipulations by hanging the Damocles’ sword of arbitrary cessation of cooperation.

 

Seventh, ignoring the U.S. agreements with Australia and Japan, Mr. Sibal says that America has a longstanding policy of not transferring reprocessing and enrichment equipment even under safeguards. The Hyde Act’s explanatory statement notes that such transfers are “not restricted” in U.S. law but that the administration assured Congress that there would be no such cooperation with India.

 

Eighth, Mr. Sibal is misinformed when he asserts that “this is the only Agreement which confers on any country to take corrective measures.” Corrective steps are permitted in some other 123 agreements in response to contingencies that extend to even a threatened suspension of cooperation or invocation of America’s “right of return.” The Indo-U.S. Agreement does not “confer” any right to take corrective measures, but merely records that India will negotiate an IAEA safeguards agreement with such a right. But with India blocked from ever lifting safeguards, such measures cannot be corrective but cosmetic.

 

Ninth, Mr. Sibal admits the deal permits U.S. end-use monitoring but contends such inspections “can neither impinge upon nor impact on India’s sovereignty.” What about the Prime Minister’s assurance to Parliament that “we will accept only IAEA safeguards” and that “there is no question of accepting other verification measures or … allowing American inspectors to roam around our nuclear facilities”? The China-U.S. 123 Agreement, which he cites, is so liberal that its Article 8(2) says “bilateral safeguards are not required.” To placate Congress over the absence of IAEA or U.S. inspections, the Clinton administration worked out a loose arrangement with Beijing for nominal on-site safeguards. In India’s case, U.S. end-use inspections won’t be nominal. Also, they won’t be a substitute to IAEA inspections but an addition.

 

Tenth, far from the agreement granting India “a de jure nuclear-weapons-state status,” it actually freezes its position in a third aberrant category – neither a formal nuclear power nor a non-nuclear nation but a NPT non-signatory with a nuclear military programme that the Hyde Act targets for “reduction and eventual elimination.”

 

Copyright: The Hindu, 2007 

Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal responds to Brahma Chellaney’s article

123 Agreement: A Response to Brahma Chellaney 

                                                                                                                                    

Kapil Sibal

The Hindu,  September 17, 2007

 

To contend that India has somehow allowed itself to be denied the rights conferred by the U.S. to other contracting parties is misleading.

The UPA-Left Committee has an historic opportunity to iron out doubts that have been expressed publicly by some, and specifically by the Left, in opposition to the Indo-U.S. Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. Historic, because if the UPA-Left Committee does not address these issues upfront with an open mind, India will lose an opportunity to be recognised as a nuclear weapons state and to avail itself of options to diversify our energy basket and enhance power generatio n to bridge the gap of unmet demand for electricity.

The statement that U.S. national laws have primacy over the 123 Agreement as contended by Brahma Chellaney (September 14) is both constitutionally and legally untenable. Reference to the U.S.-China Agreement, which stipulates that the parties to the Agreement will observe “the principle of international law that provides that a party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification for its failure to perform a treaty,” is a reiteration of the principle of international law, the absence of which, specifically in the Indo-U.S. 123 Agreement, does not result in its inapplicability. It is also not a standard provision found either in the U.S.-Japan accord or the Australia-China Agreement. Besides, in the 123 Agreement, Article 16(4) stipulates that “this agreement shall be implemented in good faith and in accordance with the principles of international law.” Also, Article VI(2) of the U.S. Constitution grants to international treaties the status of a sovereign law. Once the 123 Agreement is ratified by Congress, it will be regarded as the “last expression of the sovereign will” and overrides all other laws including national laws.

Mr. Chellaney next objects to the absence of a tribunal to settle disputes, a mechanism available only under the U.S.-Japan Agreement. Under that Agreement, the setting up of an Arbitral Tribunal is relevant only when and if a question arises concerning its interpretation or application. It has no application if either party decides to terminate the Agreement.

To contend that India has somehow allowed itself to be denied the rights conferred by the U.S. to other contracting parties is misleading. Reference to the U.S.-China and the U.S.-Japan Agreements demonstrates that India has been able to negotiate a far better agreement. For example, the Chinese do not have the right to reprocess spent fuel, a right granted to India, enhancing manifold our energy generation capacity. Secondly, the 123 Agreement recognises India as a de facto nuclear weapons state and for the first time has been granted a de jure nuclear weapons state status. Thirdly, the provision for termination of the agreement by either party is far more complex and difficult to implement than similar provisions in other agreements. Fourthly, the Japanese being signatories to the NPT, have no right to use either the nuclear material or technology for research and/or development of any nuclear explosive device, or for military purposes. If sovereignty is an issue, India’s sovereign rights are recognised by the non-hindrance clause reflected in Article 2(4).

Mr. Chellaney states that India bent backwards and agreed to terms that go beyond the requirements of U.S. law. The argument is a non-starter since no other similar agreement contains a termination clause, which conforms to specific provisions in the U.S. Atomic Energy Act. All agreements related to civil nuclear cooperation contain a termination clause that clothes both parties with the authority to, in the interim, suspend cooperation, without assigning reasons. The 123 Agreement with India is unique in that it provides for a one year notice of termination along with reasons. Instead of lauding our negotiators for having protected India’s interest so admirably, we are nitpicking on clauses which are in fact beneficial to our long term interests.

Mr. Chellaney then suggests that New Delhi has granted unfettered and uninfringeable rights to the U.S. to demand the return of all exported items and materials if it were to hold India in breach of stipulated conditions. The author is aware that in all other similar agreements, the right is entirely unfettered and uninfringeable and that in the 123 Agreement with India, the ambit of the right is limited by considerations which are contextual relating to India’s geographical situation and security concerns.

Further the safety net provided in the termination clause in the 123 Agreement with India is absent in all other agreements. What is a gain for India is being viewed as a sell-out.

The next major objection relates to the Separation Plan and the right to reprocess spent fuel, the operationalisation of which depends upon the setting up of a dedicated reprocessing facility. It makes sense to set up such a facility and route all foreign nuclear material to ensure its safeguarded use and verifiability. Such a framework serves the objective of enhancing our capacity to generate electricity, with India-specific safeguards in place. The decision to opt for a dedicated facility and not using the existing PREFRE plant under safeguards is based on scientific considerations of verifiability and administrative convenience. The building of such a facility is not a sell-out as contended.

The statement of the Prime Minister that the U.S. has a longstanding policy not to allow reprocessing and enrichment transfers is accurate. Under the U.S.-China Agreement, the Chinese are allowed neither the right to reprocess spent fuel nor enrichment transfers. Has China bartered its sovereignty in the bargain? Does the U.S.-Japan Agreement not inhibit the right of Japan to even conduct research for weaponisation and making nuclear devices?

Mr. Chellaney’s next objection is that the U.S. has the right to veto a separate agreement on reprocessing contingent upon building a new state-of-the-art facility before working out such arrangements. It may be stated upfront that India’s ability to reprocess spent fuel is not contingent on the transfer of reprocessing technologies from the U.S. We don’t need these from the U.S. Besides, we have a right to access such technologies from members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Despite this, the U.S. has agreed to seek an amendment of its Atomic Energy Act to share reprocessing technologies. Our right will be operationalised on building a dedicated reprocessing facility with IAEA safeguards.

As far as foreign policy implications of this deal are concerned, even in the Hyde Act, matters relating to foreign policy are regarded as statements of policy, not binding on India. The operative part of the Hyde Act deals with permanent waivers and congressional approval. Statements of policy and reporting requirements of the President vis-À-vis Congress have no bearing on the provisions of the 123 Agreement just as our statements of policy have no bearing on U.S. obligations under the Agreement.

Let us now deal with the nature of safeguards. Safeguards in perpetuity are contingent upon assured and uninterrupted fuel supplies, to which the U.S. is committed. Assured and uninterrupted fuel supply to safeguarded facilities is reflected in Articles 5(6)(a) and 6(b) 2, 3 & 4 of the Agreement. Article 5 (6)(c) stipulates specifically that the IAEA safeguards agreement, which would be India-specific will provide for safeguards against “withdrawal of safeguarded nuclear material from civilian use at any time as well as providing for corrective measures that India may take to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies.” To say that corrective measures are cosmetic is again not based on the language of this Agreement. Indeed, this is the only Agreement which confers on any country to take corrective measures in the event of a possible disruption of supplies and these corrective measures will be taken by India in its national interest.

The next objection deals with possible impetuous and induced monitoring based on Section 104(d)5 of the Hyde Act. A close reading of the provision will indicate that the accountability to Congress is of entities required to account for technology transfers and the obligations of the Department of Commerce and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

All these again are consistent with the IAEA safeguards and the terms of the 123 Agreement and can neither impinge upon nor impact on India’s sovereignty. The interpretation of Section 108 of the Act is again an attempt to find a ghost in every corner where none exists. Collaboration with the Indian scientific community is a salutary provision, which would give us access to technology and information.

The argument relating to the life of the Agreement and the stipulated expiry date cannot by any stretch of reasoning be a subject matter of debate and discord when India has the right to terminate the Agreement by giving one year’s notice, which right is also granted to the U.S. The period of 40 years, in fact is evidence of the level of confidence and goodwill between the contracting parties.

In the U.S., many believe that the 123 Agreement is a bad agreement made worse. That the U.S. can live without this agreement, there is no doubt. That India should live without this agreement is certainly a matter of debate. India should not lose this historic opportunity to be part of a global regime in which India is included as a shareholder. We must get on the bus of nuclear renaissance. History has taught us if you miss the bus once, you will also miss the ride. The walk forward will be long and arduous.

(The writer is Union Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences.)

© Copyright 2007 The Hindu

http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/thscrip/print.pl?file=2007091755761100.htm&date=2007/09/17/&prd=th&

 

The Indo-U.S. 123 agreement’s troubling questions about Indian diplomacy

Questions raised by the 123 Agreement

Brahma Chellaney

The Hindu, September 14, 2007


The UPA-Left committee’s task can help shine a spotlight on troubling questions that suggest Indian diplomacy lost out in the 123 negotiations with the U.S.


The United Progressive Alliance-Left committee has been tasked to examine America’s new Hyde Act and the Indo-U.S. 123 Agreement. While the conditions-laden Hyde Act does not disguise its intent to regulate India’s conduct in areas unrelated to civil nuclear cooperation, the 123 Agreement raises at least 15 troubling questions, which the Government ought to answer.

1. Despite America’s enactment of a new domestic law in 1978 to retroactively rewrite its obligations with India over Tarapur, why has New Delhi allowed the primacy of “national laws” to be upheld in the new 123 Agreement? India has no national law governing cooperation with any nation, but the U.S. today has an India-specific internal law that expressly defines the limits and conditions of cooperation.

In particular, why did India agree to omit a standard provision in bilateral agreements that upholds a cardinal principle of international law by debarring either party from invoking domestic law to justify a breach of obligations? Article 2(1) of the Indo-U.S. Agreement is identical to Article 2(1) of the China-U.S. 123 Agreement except that the following qualifying final sentence has been dropped — “The parties recognise, with respect to the observance of this Agreement, the principle of international law that provides that a party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification for its failure to perform a treaty.”

2. Why is there no provision for an arbitral tribunal in the 123 Agreement, even though America has agreed in 123 accords with other states to establish such a tribunal in case of a dispute? Why does the Agreement’s Article 15, titled “Settlement of Disputes,” in a departure from this practice, not provide for arbitration, the applicability of the principles of international law, or the setting up of a tribunal? The Japan-U.S. 123 Agreement, for example, protects Tokyo’s interests through Article 14, which states: “If any dispute arising out of the interpretation or application of this Agreement is not settled by negotiation, mediation, conciliation or other similar procedure, the parties may agree to submit such dispute to an arbitral tribunal…”

3. Why has India, on issues of vital concern, settled merely for sugar-coated but worthless “consultations” (with no provision for arriving at a mutually acceptable outcome) even while implicitly granting the U.S. the right to take all final decisions? Why did New Delhi not heed the lesson from the 1963 Indo-U.S. 123 Agreement, which, despite providing for consultations and for taking into account the economic and other effects of any precipitate action, failed to stop the U.S. from unilaterally walking out of its obligations?

4. Why has India bent backwards to accept terms that go beyond even the requirements of any U.S. law? For example, why has India granted the U.S. an open-ended right to suspend or terminate cooperation at will, when American law itself sets limits on such action? The U.S. Atomic Energy Act (AEC), as amended in 1978, specifies precise triggers for cessation of exports: a nuclear test; or a material breach of international safeguards; contravention of the terms of a 123 accord; or proliferation-related transfers.

And doesn’t the accord’s Article 14(2) place India at the mercy of the supplier-state by stating that the “party seeking termination has the right to cease further cooperation under this Agreement if it determines that a mutually acceptable resolution of outstanding issues has not been possible or cannot be achieved through consultations”? Even though termination is to take effect at the end of a one-year notice period, the U.S. is empowered to suspend all cooperation forthwith, without having to institute an alternative supplier. The only requirement is that a “party giving notice of termination shall provide the reasons for seeking such termination.” But with the reasons for termination not defined in the Agreement unlike, say, the Japan-U.S. accord, the cause can be any.

5. Similarly, why has New Delhi granted an unfettered and uninfringeable right to the U.S. to demand the return of all exported items and materials if it were to hold India in breach of the stipulated conditions? Under Section 123(a)(4) of the AEC, America’s “right of return” is limited to two specific causes — “if the cooperating party detonates a nuclear-explosive device, or terminates or abrogates an agreement providing for IAEA safeguards.” So, why has India charitably granted the U.S. carte blanche to cite any reason to demand a full return?

6. Why has India made concessions beyond its Separation Plan merely to obtain an empty conceptual entitlement to reprocess, instead of securing an operational right to reprocess, just as Japan had won through an implementing agreement accompanying its 123 accord with the U.S.?

7. Indeed, why has India agreed not only to build an expensive new reprocessing facility that meets U.S. design expectations, but also, as the Prime Minister admitted in Parliament on August 13, to route all “foreign nuclear material” through that plant? How could New Delhi grant Washington a say in where it reprocesses spent fuel generated from imports from countries other than the U.S.? Also, given the frequent outages and breakdowns in any reprocessing plant due to its handling of radioactive spent fuel, why has India limited its options by agreeing to route all foreign nuclear material through a single facility instead of also using the existing PREFRE plant under safeguards, as called for under the Separation Plan?

8. Having agreed to build this special reprocessing facility just to meet the U.S. demand, why has India placed itself in an unenviable position on the plant by settling for less than the “full cooperation” that the original deal promised — it will bear the construction costs but will not have the right to import any components for the safeguarded facility? Contrary to the Prime Minister’s August 13 statement in Parliament that the U.S. has a “longstanding policy” not to make civil reprocessing and enrichment transfers, hasn’t Washington exported reprocessing equipment to Japan under the permissible terms of its 123 Agreement with Tokyo? And doesn’t the U.S. have ongoing laser enrichment cooperation with Australia?

9. With only two of the deal’s five contemplated stages completed, why has New Delhi agreed, through the 123 Agreement, to a sixth phase to be added — a separate agreement on reprocessing-related “arrangements and procedures” under Section 131 of the AEC? By arming the U.S. with an effective veto on reprocessing until such time New Delhi has satisfied it first by building a new “state-of-the-art” facility and then by working out the subsequent arrangements, doesn’t India risk getting into a bigger mess than over Tarapur, whose spent fuel has been accumulating for 38 years?

10. After expending considerable resources of its own to lobby members of the U.S. Congress to pass the enabling legislation on the deal (the Hyde Act), has India factored in the foreign-policy implications of having now to wage two more campaigns on Capitol Hill — securing congressional approval first of the 123 agreement and then of a special 131 agreement? Won’t these battles subject Indian foreign policy to congressional scrutiny and demands over an extended time?

11. Why has the Government, in breach of its assurances to Parliament, agreed to terms that provide for no enforceable link between perpetual fuel supply and perpetual international inspections? When the Prime Minister, in agreeing to permanent external inspections, went back on his original pledge to accept only “the same responsibilities and obligations as the United States,” he assured Parliament in March 2006 that the perpetual safeguards would be tied to perpetual fuel supply. But does not the 123 Agreement explicitly exclude such a link and amount to another breach of promise? The Agreement not only denies India any such linkage, but also mandates that New Delhi’s safeguards obligations are irreversible to the extent that they would survive even if the accord were unilaterally terminated.

Furthermore, the Agreement renders the reference to “corrective measures” entirely cosmetic by blocking India from ever undertaking real correction — the ending of outside inspections in response to a fuel supply cut-off. Why has New Delhi gone along with this charade?

12. In addition to international inspections, doesn’t the Agreement permit U.S. end-use verification by requiring in its Article 12(3) that where cooperation “requires visits of experts, the parties shall facilitate entry of the experts to their territory and their stay therein consistent with national laws, regulations and practices”? In doing so, doesn’t it meet the Hyde Act’s Section 104(d)(5)(B)(i) stipulation for “end-use monitoring,” which — along with the Act’s Section 109 requirement for an access-gaining programme “with scientists” in India — is intended to facilitate collection and submission of detailed information on Indian nuclear activities to the U.S. Congress on a yearly basis?

13. Why has New Delhi accepted a provision that makes the Agreement indefinite in nature? The U.S. currently has in force 23 bilateral agreements with other states under Section 123, but most stipulate expiry in 30 years. But Article 16(2) of the Agreement with India specifies that the agreement is for an initial term of 40 years but is to continue in force ad infinitum in 10-year intervals until either party elects to end the accord. The Agreement also lacks a safety measure built into the Japan-U.S. accord, which provides that at the request of either party, the accord can by mutual consent be replaced “with a new agreement.” In contrast, if international circumstances change, India can seek only an amendment to the Agreement.

14. Is it judicious for Indian officials to suggest, even if obliquely, that the 123 Agreement would override the grating India-specific terms and conditions of the Hyde Act? How can a 123 Agreement — a requirement only under American law — supersede U.S. law? Haven’t U.S. officials publicly made clear that the 123 Agreement merely codifies technical rules of nuclear commerce and cannot supplant the Hyde Act’s provisions?

Isn’t New Delhi aware of America’s consistent legal position that a 123 Agreement with any nation carries no force under the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties? Or has New Delhi forgotten the legal stance the U.S. took in the 1970s — to India’s acute discomfiture — that such an accord is liable to change in response to the evolution of American law?

15. Why has New Delhi, in spite of the Hyde Act’s clear-cut stipulations, concluded an ambiguously formulated 123 Agreement? The U.S. can easily live with this Agreement for two reasons — the ambiguities relate only to issues of concern to India, and the accord confers enforceable rights only on the supplier-state.

Given that India will assume everlasting, legally immutable obligations once the Agreement enters into force, these 15 questions need to be addressed, including, if necessary, through renegotiation of the text.

(Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, is the author, among others, of “Nuclear Proliferation: The U.S.-India Conflict.”)

© Copyright 2007 The Hindu

http://www.hindu.com/2007/09/14/stories/2007091453821300.htm

DNA interview with Brahma Chellaney on Chinese cyber-espionage activities

‘Chinese are skilled and very savvy at espionage’

Venkatesan Vembu

DNA newspaper, Tuesday, September 11, 2007

HONG KONG: Strategic analyst, author and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Centre for Policy Research Brahma Chellaney identifies lessons for India from reports of China’s cyber espionage.

On the latest reports of China’s electronic warfare.
The Chinese have a long-standing policy of conducting espionage at the highest levels of foreign governments. They also have a history of hacking into computers to steal data, and a tradition of stealing sensitive technology from other states. They are very savvy in espionage — and highly skilled at that. These revelations are a warning to all states that the Chinese are going to be making determined attempts to break into secured systems and steal sensitive technology. 

On the information security systems in place in India.
All countries have secure systems; it is impossible for any government to function without such systems. There are different levels of safeguardability with the Indian systems. When it comes to things like Indian missions overseas, their systems are minimally secured. It’s easy for hackers to break into certain systems in India because the government has not felt the need to secure every system up to a particular level. And that’s because there are costs involved: it needs personnel, technology and money. Even if the Chinese break into such a system, they are not going to get any information. Only when they get into highly sensitive systems will they get any useful information. 

On the merits of a good security system.
You cant have a foolproof system, and you don’t really want to make it foolproof against amateur hackers. What you want to do is secure sensitive data in the core of your system. When people break into the periphery, there’s not much damage done. You have to determine whether you are storing your most sensitive data at the core or spreading it out. If you are saving it in the core, it doesn’t matter how secure the outlying system are. 

On how India’s information system compares with others.
The quality and degree of securability of system vary. Some secure even systems that connect foreign missions to the headquarters. Others provide very minimal security. But the fact that hackers are getting increasingly adept at getting into systems means that a country like India will have to further upgrade its own secured systems. 

On the lessons for India.
India is on a learning curve, and its learning gradually. It needs to be a bit more cognisant of the electronic threats in today’s world and stay abreast of the latest technology in tomorrow’s warfare.

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1120714

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False Promise of Nuclear Power

HypE=mc2
 
Nuclear power is unlikely to help reduce global CO² emissions or be a cost-effective answer to the growing electricity demands
 
HINDUSTAN TIMES
Published: September 10, 2007
 
The line between fact and fiction has become blurred in the shrill debate on the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal. Sadly, no one has contributed more to obscuring that line than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Blending missionary zeal with undaunted resolve to push through an increasingly divisive deal, Singh has been contradicting himself with startling regularity. A classic instance relates to the U.S.’s enabling legislation, the Hyde Act, a 41-page anthology of India-specific conditions.

After the full U.S. House and a Senate committee had approved separate versions of the bill, Singh declared in August 2006: “I had taken up with President Bush our concerns regarding provisions in the two bills. It is clear if the final product is in its current form, India will have grave difficulties in accepting the bills. The US has been left in no doubt as to our position”. When the U.S. Congress disregarded Singh’s red lines and passed the Hyde Act by amalgamating the toughest elements from the Senate and House bills, the PM admitted in the Lok Sabha on December 18, 2006, that “there are areas which continue to be a cause for concern”. Today, Singh’s government has a convenient new position — “Whatever is stated in the Hyde Act is not our concern”.

Ten days ago, Singh articulated a new raison d’être for pushing the deal: “There is today talk the world over of a nuclear renaissance, and we cannot afford to miss the bus or lag behind these global developments”. The reasoning behind the ‘don’t-miss-the-bus’ invocation is markedly specious.

First, there is no evidence of a ‘nuclear renaissance’. The share of nuclear power in global electricity has been stagnant at 16 per cent since the mid-1990s, with 429 reactors worldwide currently generating 370 gW. Another 24 reactors today are under construction, but only four in the West. Even if all current reactor proposals turn into reality, the number of nations operating nuclear plants would merely rise from 31 to 38, indicating modest growth but no global dash to the ‘bus’.

Second, India can hardly miss any bus, given its own capacity to build state-of-the-art power reactors of the type the PM just dedicated to the nation. With enough uranium reserves to support a 10 gW programme, India today has an installed generating capacity of only 4.1 gW, thanks partly to the way Singh starved the programme of necessary funds for expansion when he was finance minister. Singh’s new-found enthusiasm for nuclear power actually centres on imports.

In any event, how can India miss any bus when Singh refers merely to the “talk the world over of a nuclear renaissance”? Should India be chasing the talk?

While nuclear power certainly has a place in a diverse energy portfolio, India can hardly meet its burgeoning energy needs by importing high-priced reactors. Such imports, besides making little economic or strategic sense, will be a path to energy insecurity and exorbitant costs. No country has tried to build energy security by importing reactors of a type it has no intent to manufacture nationally and whose fuel requirements will keep it perpetually dependent on foreign suppliers. But that is the path on which Singh wishes to take India.

Owing to the global climate crisis, nuclear power is no longer a hobgoblin to some environmentalists. With the power sector responsible for 24 per cent of all carbon-dioxide emissions, cleaner means to produce power are necessary. Yet, for multiple reasons, nuclear power is unlikely to make any real dent in global CO² emissions or be a cost-effective answer to the growing electricity demands.

First, after declining for a quarter-century, the world nuclear power industry lacks the capacity to undertake a massive construction programme that could make a noticeable difference to global warming. While nuclear power generation itself is ‘clean’, the nuclear-fuel cycle is carbon-intensive, with greenhouse gases emitted in mining and enriching uranium with fossil fuels. Reactor construction also carries large carbon footprints. In addition, radioactive wastes from reactor operation pose technological challenges and inestimable environmental costs.

Second, independent studies worldwide show that electricity generated through currently available nuclear technologies is not cost-competitive with other conventional sources. Also, nuclear power is highly capital-intensive. The reason why not a single new power reactor in the US has been built after the last one ordered in 1970 is largely economics. Two separate studies by the University of Chicago (2004) and MIT (2003), for example, computed the baseline cost of new nuclear power at 6.2 to 6.7 cents per kWh, as compared to 3.3 to 4.2 cents for pulverised ‘clean’ coal and 3.5 to 5.6 cents for natural gas. The PM, tellingly, has shied away from disclosing any estimate of the cost of electricity from new imported reactors.

Third, the world’s uranium stocks are limited and unless breeder technology is embraced in a big way or the higher-grade ores reserved for military programmes are freed, the known uranium reserves will last barely 85 years, according to the joint OECD-IAEA ‘Red Book’ that uses 2004 generation levels.

Fourth, nuclear-fuel costs are escalating sharply because the international price of uranium has been rising faster than any other commodity. While the price of coal, measured in a two-decade timeframe, has dropped, the spot price of uranium more than quadrupled just during 2004-07.

Fifth, the lead time for construction of a power plant from any energy source other than large-scale hydro-power is the highest for nuclear power. While a power reactor takes five to six years from start to finish, a gas-fired plant takes two years and a windmill even less.

Sixth, because of its potentially serious hazards, nuclear power faces a uniquely stringent regulatory regime, which adds to the time and liability, along with associated costs on operational safety and spent-fuel management.

Seventh, a tiny nuclear cartel made up of a few state-guided firms controls the global reactor and fuel supplies. This constitutes the most politically regulated commerce in the world, with little sanctity of contract, as the cases of Tarapur, Brushehr and others epitomise. That is why many countries today view the idea of an international nuclear fuel bank as institutionalising discrimination because it would allow a handful of advanced countries to preserve their supply monopoly.

Eighth, nuclear power involves significant external costs that industry does not bear on its own, including on accident-liability cover, anti-terrorist safeguards, radioactive-waste storage, decommissioning of old reactors, and international monitoring. State subsidies are not factored into the generating costs and remain hidden.

Ninth, nuclear power tends to put serious strain on local water sources. The Light Water Reactors (LWRs) India is seeking to import are highly water-intensive, which sets a limit on where they can be located. As they copiously use water as a coolant, the LWRs appropriate large quantities of local water for their operations. Worse, they pump the hot-water reactor outflow back into rivers, reservoirs and oceans in a continuous cycle, damaging plant life and fish. Given the need for plentiful water resources, the two LWRs from Russia being built in Tamil Nadu and the likely sites for the proposed imported LWRs from France and the U.S. are along the Indian sea coast. 

And tenth, as global warming accelerates and the surface temperatures of seas, rivers and lakes rise, power reactors will be less able to generate electricity at rated capacity. In the French 2003 killer heat wave, 17 reactors had to be scaled back in operation or turned off because of the rapid rise in river or lake temperatures. In Germany and Spain, operations of reactors were cut back as temperatures rose. In the US, the group Public Citizen reported a shutdown last year at a plant in Michigan, and slowdowns at plants in Minnesota, Illinois and Pennsylvania, because of hot-weather conditions.

In sum, without a breakthrough in fusion energy or greater commercial advances in breeder (and thorium) reactors, nuclear power is in no position to lead the world out of the fossil-fuel age.

The path to energy and climate security lies through carbon-free renewable energy, which by harnessing nature frees a nation from reliance on external sources of fuel supply. Yet such is the nuclear-power hype that few Indians know that their country today generates much more wind power than nuclear energy.

Copyright: Hindustan Times, 2007.

Future of Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal Part 1

Put Nuclear Deal On Hold

 

Part I

 

Brahma Chellaney

 

Asian Age, September 8, 2007

 

Since signing the Indo-US nuclear deal on July 18, 2005, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has repeatedly slipped on promises to the nation. Every time he has been unable to keep an assurance, he has sought to devise a revised gauge to maintain the semblance of an unbroken word.

 

Singh’s changing measures mirror the shifting terms of a deal that has proven increasingly divisive in India. Unlike in the US, where criticism has been limited to some quarters and to just one issue — non-proliferation — the deal has attracted wide-ranging concerns across India. And unlike the bipartisan political support it has drawn in America — both inside and outside the US Congress — the deal has badly split India’s political establishment.

 

The most striking difference, however, relates to legislative oversight. At every stage, US President George W. Bush has had to bow to the congressional prerogative to vet any arrangement with India. Bush has even made the grant of reprocessing right to India conditional on the congressional approval of a separate agreement that is to be negotiated in the years ahead under Section 131 of the US Atomic Energy Act (AEC). By contrast, the US granted Japan and EURATOM the actual right to reprocess upfront through an implementing accord accompanying a Section 123 agreement, not through a separate Section 131 deal years later.

 

The Indian Parliament, on the other hand, has been reduced to being a mere spectator on the deal. The PM insists that Parliament has no role on the Indo-US 123 agreement other than to be merely informed about it. Parliament similarly will be shut out from the subsequent Section 131 agreement on reprocessing. Yet Singh affirms that he has “kept Parliament fully in the picture at various stages of our negotiations with the United States” by making “several statements.”

 

Singh’s concept of public accountability, in other words, centres on making statements in Parliament at his own sweet will, merely to convey what has been agreed to and signed, without having to bow to the will of the national legislature. The PM has yet to disclose how much money his government spent to lobby members of the US Congress to pass the enabling legislation on the deal — the Hyde Act. Given that the US legislature had never previously passed a country-specific law laden with so many conditions to permit cooperation in just one narrow area as it did through the Hyde Act, it is a surprise that no one has been asked to account for the multimillion-dollar lobbying campaign New Delhi coordinated on Capitol Hill last year — a campaign whose outcome seeks to saddle India with onerous long-term requirements, many of which have little to do with civil nuclear cooperation.

 

New Delhi has blithely gone along with the shifting terms of a deal that is set to attract even more India-specific conditions as it traverses the remaining stages. The best course for India at this point would be to put the deal on hold while continuing to build a stronger relationship with the US in other areas. After all, the record since July 2005 does not redound to India’s credit. Consider the latest major goofs:

 

 

No provision for international arbitration in case of a dispute.

 

The 123 agreement has no provision for an arbitral tribunal, despite India’s bitter experience over an earlier 123 accord with the US signed in 1963. The 1963 agreement was not only more protective of Indian interests, but also free of any Hyde Act-style overarching legal framework. Yet, 15 years later, the US effectively gutted the accord by retroactively rewriting its terms through a new domestic law.

 

In the latest 123 agreement, India has gained the right to be merely consulted but has granted America the right to take all final decisions.

 

Contrast this with the Japan-US 123 agreement in which Tokyo’s interests are protected through Article 14: “If any dispute arising out of the interpretation or application of this Agreement is not settled by negotiation, mediation, conciliation or other similar procedure, the parties may agree to submit such dispute to an arbitral tribunal which shall be composed of three arbitrators appointed in accordance with the provisions of this paragraph. Each party shall designate one arbitrator who may be a national of its country and the arbitrators so designated shall elect a third, a national of a third country, who shall be the Chairman. If, within 30 days of the request for arbitration, either side has not designated an arbitrator, either side may request the President of the International Court of Justice to appoint an arbitrator. The same procedure shall apply if, within 30 days of the designation or appointment of the second arbitrator, the third arbitrator has not been elected, provided that the third arbitrator so appointed shall not be a national of the country of either party. A majority of the members of the tribunal shall constitute the quorum, and all decisions shall require the concurrence of two arbitrators. The decisions of the tribunal shall be binding on the parties.”   

 

The terms, “arbitration,” “mediation,” “conciliation,” “tribunal” and “International Court of Justice,” do not find mention in the latest Indo-US 123 accord, which only provides for toothless “consultations.” The agreement’s Article 15, titled “Settlement of Disputes”, merely states: “Any dispute concerning the interpretation or implementation of the provisions of this agreement shall be promptly negotiated by the parties with a view to resolving that dispute.”

 

Japan is a close ally of the US, yet it sought an arbitral tribunal. India is still grappling with outstanding issues from its earlier 123 agreement with the US, including an accumulating spent-fuel stockpile, yet its negotiators have placed it at the mercy of the supplier-state. 

 

 

Primacy of American law has been upheld.

 

Nothing better illustrates this than the way the Indo-US agreement copies, word to word, Article 2(1) of the China-US 123 accord, but only to drop its critical final sentence — that the “parties recognize, with respect to the observance of this agreement, the principle of international law that provides that a party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification for its failure to perform a treaty.”

 

This omission is because the Indo-US agreement, as both sides have admitted, is anchored in the Hyde Act. Instead of treating that Act as a red rag to a bull, New Delhi has bragged how the 123 agreement is within the framework of that legislation. In the words of National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, “As far as we are concerned, we haven’t breached the Hyde Act … We have seen to [it] that no law is broken.” And US Undersecretary Nicholas Burns has seconded that by saying “we have the Hyde Act. And we kept reminding the Indian side, and they were good enough to negotiate on this basis, that anything we did had to fall within and respect the legal guidelines that Congress had set forth.”

 

Having accepted the supremacy of US law, Singh has been left with only the provision for “consultations” to flaunt. “Both Parties have agreed to take a number of factors into account in their consultations so that the scope for precipitate or unilateral action is reduced,” the PM told Parliament.

 

The 1963 agreement also provided for consultations and for taking into account the economic and other effects of any precipitate action, yet the US unilaterally walked out of the accord. Had there been a provision in that agreement for an arbitral tribunal, would India have been unable to reprocess the Tarapur spent fuel to this day?

 

 

India has conceded ground beyond the requirements of even American law.

 

For reasons unexplained, Indian negotiators have agreed to some terms that go beyond the requirements of any US law — the Hyde Act and AEC included. This may have happened because the 123 agreement has been largely drafted by US lawyers, with Narayanan admitting that while “there were State Department lawyers” in the negotiations, no lawyer was present on the Indian side because “our country is not litigious like that.”

 

Yet today, in response to the national furore, the government has drafted a top lawyer like Kapil Sibal to defend the deal in public. Shouldn’t his services have been sought when they were most needed — during the negotiations with the US?

 

Here are three examples of how Indian concessions go beyond even the demands of US law.

 

1. Unrestricted right of return. India shouldn’t have accepted that the supplier-state is at liberty to terminate cooperation retroactively through the right to demand the return of all exported items and materials. After all, Indian officials had been saying in background briefings until last May that any formal acknowledgement of the American right to seek return on account of a US-determined Indian non-compliance with non-proliferation conditions would turn India’s voluntary test moratorium into a binding prohibition through a double instrument — a bilateral agreement atop the Hyde Act.

 

Yet, in finally succumbing to the US demand, Indian negotiators agreed to incorporate the “right of return” in the 123-agreement text in such a way as to give carte blanche to the American side. Under Section 123(a)(4) of AEC, America’s “right of return” is limited to two specific causes — “if the cooperating party detonates a nuclear-explosive device, or terminates or abrogates an agreement providing for IAEA safeguards”.

 

But under the Indo-US agreement under Section 123, America has been handed an unrestricted right to demand return by citing any reason. All it requires to invoke that right is for a notice to be “delivered to the other party on or before the date of termination of this agreement.”

 

2. Open-ended right to suspend all supplies. The unrestricted “right of return” is linked to the open-ended suspension and termination provisos in the 123 agreement. The basis for suspension or cessation of cooperation is not merely limited to any violation of the agreement. Cooperation can be suspended or terminated for reasons other than a material breach of the agreement’s terms or non-compliance with IAEA safeguards. This leeway has been fashioned to hold India’s feet to the US non-proliferation fire.

 

Under the agreement’s Article 14.2, the supplier-state enjoys an unfettered right to suspend cooperation at will and leave the recipient-state high and dry. The Article states: “The party seeking termination has the right to cease further cooperation under this agreement if it determines that a mutually acceptable resolution of outstanding issues has not been possible or cannot be achieved through consultations.” So the US can either hold consultations or even dispense with them if it believed the desired outcome “cannot be achieved through consultations.”

 

More importantly, although termination is to take effect at the end of a one-year notice period, the US is empowered to “cease further cooperation” forthwith. All that is required is that the “party giving notice of termination shall provide the reasons for seeking such termination.” But with the reasons for termination not defined in the agreement, the cause can be any. This makes a mockery of New Delhi’s claim of having secured an uninterrupted fuel-supply assurance.

 

Contrast the unlimited right in the 123 agreement to suspend or terminate cooperation with the limits set by US law — Section 129 of AEC — wherein precise triggers are specified for cessation of exports to a non-nuclear-weapons state (India is classified as one in this deal): (i) a nuclear-device detonation; (ii) a material breach or termination of IAEA safeguards; (iii) a material violation of the 123 accord; or (iv) proliferation-related transfers by the recipient state to a third country.

 

Even the Japan-US 123 agreement, despite its arbitration safety measure, does not provide for an unlimited right of suspension or termination. Under its Article 12, the triggers for cessation of cooperation are restricted to non-compliance either with the agreement’s own provisions or with “the decisions of the arbitral tribunal.” India, however, has merrily reposed its implicit faith in the same supplier that walked out from the earlier Indo-US 123 agreement.

 

3. All foreign-origin spent fuel to be routed through a single facility. American law seeks to regulate only spent fuel that is of US-origin. Yet, after a similar assertion by Burns, Singh admitted in Parliament on August 13, 2007, that the new Indian reprocessing facility to be built at American instance will be not just for US-origin fuel but for all “foreign nuclear material under IAEA safeguards.”

 

That is odd. Why should India grant America a say in where it reprocesses spent fuel generated from imports from countries other than the US? Given that the new facility will be US-approved in terms of its design, why hand Washington a veto on where India reprocesses other foreign-origin fuel? Considering the frequent outages and breakdowns in any reprocessing plant due to its handling of highly unsafe spent fuel, India’s decision to route all foreign nuclear material through a single such facility unduly limits its options.

 

(To be continued)

 

© Asian Age, 2007