Asia’s unique strategic triangle

Japan-China-India triangle key to Asia

Shigefumi Takasuka

Daily Yomiuri, October 13, 2007

How the three-way relationship between Japan, China and India evolves in the coming years will be a crucial factor in Asian and global security, a strategic expert said at a two-day international forum of journalists held in New Delhi.

Brahma Chellaney, professor at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, was speaking on Sept. 28 at the 8th Asian-European Editors’ Forum. The meeting’s official theme was "Globalizaiton: Up- and Downsides for Asia."

In a speech titled "Asian Geopolitics: A New Great Game," he said Asia had become the world’s economic powerhouse in only two generations, and that the 21st century certainly belonged to the region. But he added that one of the challenges standing in the way of further progress was the resentment many nations in the region still harbor toward each other over past events.

"In the coming years, given the tangled Japan-China and India-China relationships, the competitive pride and rivalries among Asia’s three biggest powers are likely to greatly influence the continent’s geopolitics," Chellaney said.

"The central challenge would be to stabilize major power relationships in Asia and promote cooperative approaches that can tackle security, energy, territorial, environmental and historical issues," he said.

"This is not going to be easy and will depend on a genuine thaw in India-China and China-Japan relations."

To prevent memories dating back to World War II and after from hampering the intertwined relations of those three nations, he stressed that the "demons of nationalism" will have to be chained.

Referring to the antigovernment demonstrations then going on in Myanmar, one participant asked him why India had recently decided to pursue closer relations with Myanmar.

Chellaney replied that it should be understood in the context of bilateral economic relations and China’s strategic ties with the Myanmar junta. But, he added, the Indian government continues to support a fast return of democracy in Myanmar.

In the afternoon session of the first day of the two-day forum, Yeo Lay Hwee, senior research fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said in her speech titled "Asian Regionalism: Helped or Hindered by Globalization?" that fears of globalization had provoked regionalism in East Asia, but failed to form an East Asia Community due to antipathy between Japan and China and U.S. interference.

East Asian nations must work together to chart the course of globalization, she said.

According to Yeo, globalization does not mean that everyone will benefit from the "game" equally. There will be winning and losing countries in globalization, and regional cooperation could alleviate its negative effects and "compensate the losers to reduce the resentment," she said.

Though both Chellaney and Yeo stressed the necessity of historical reconciliation among Japan, China and South Korea, the participants from those countries did not express their opinions on the issue, apparently reflecting its complexity.

Instead, the participants from Southeast Asian countries minimized the importance of the history issue in their countries.

"The history issue with Japan is almost over in Southeast Asian countries," said Endy Bayuni, chief editor of The Jakarta Post, a leading English-language daily in Indonesia. "We’ve accepted Japanese prime ministers’ apologies. But, it won’t be easy with China and South Korea."

The forum was organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a German nongovernmental organization, in cooperation with The Statesman, an Indian member of the Asia News Network, a grouping of 14 leading newspapers in Asia.

About 40 journalists representing prestigious news organizations in Asian and European countries, including The Yomiuri Shimbun and The Daily Yomiuri, and other organizations also took part in the forum, discussing topics such as "Economic Globalization: Chances and Challenges for Asia" and "Globalization and its Consequences for Asian Media."

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20071013TDY17004.htm

Chinese Strategy Against India

Don’t Get Cowed Down
 
China aims to keep India on the defensive
 
Brahma Chellaney

The Times of India, October 2, 2007

In what has become a 26-year-old saga of unending negotiations to settle the Himalayan territorial disputes, India and China have ended yet another round of talks in typical fashion – acclaiming the discussions as constructive and worth continuation. Let’s be clear: Staying put in a barren process that offers little hope of a breakthrough works to China’s strategic advantage. It provides China diplomatic cover to be intractable and revanchist, as underscored by the way it has provocatively upped the ante since last November.

India and China stand out in the world today as the only neighbours not separated even by a mutually defined frontline. The task of clarifying the long line of control – initiated by Indira Gandhi in 1981 – was abandoned by the Vajpayee government in 2003 under the persuasion of Beijing, which by then had already reneged on its commitment to exchange maps of the contentious western and eastern sectors. Instead, the two countries have since pursued the more-ambitious goal of a complete border settlement, defining six “guiding” principles in 2005 and now seeking a framework for such a resolution.

Yet the truth is that like in the aborted task to define the frontline, China is loath to go beyond the first step. It took two decades of negotiations before Beijing exchanged maps with India of just one sector – the least-disputed middle segment. Having done that, it then broke its word on the other two sectors. After the process restarted on a different pathway in 2003, it took several rounds of bilateral negotiations – with a succession of three Indian national security advisers participating in the exercise – before China agreed to the six broad principles with India.

These noble but simple principles can hardly lay the basis for a frontier settlement: “a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution through consultations on an equal footing”; “meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments to their respective positions”; “due consideration to each other’s strategic and reasonable interests”; “take into account, inter alia, historical evidence, national sentiments, practical difficulties and reasonable concerns and sensitivities of both sides, and the actual state of border areas”; the “boundary should be along well-defined and easily identifiable natural geographical features to be mutually agreed upon”; and “safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the border areas”.

Still, it did not take long for Beijing to repudiate one key principle – not to upset settled populations. That this disclaimer came a few months after the Chinese ambassador’s Beijing-supported bellicose public statement on Arunachal Pradesh was positive proof of China’s calculated hardening of its stance. Having wrung the concessions it desired from India on Tibet, Beijing is now presenting Arunachal as an outstanding issue that demands “give and take”, ingeniously putting the onus on India to achieve progress.

Lest the message be missed, New Delhi is being repeatedly exhorted to make concessions on Tawang – a critical corridor between Lhasa and the Assam valley of immense military import because it overlooks the chicken-neck that connects India with its north-east.

Make no mistake: The core issue remains Tibet. To focus on Arunachal or even Tawang is not only to miss the wood for the trees, but also to play into China’s attempts at incremental territorial annexation. Having gobbled up Tibet, Beijing now lays claim to Indian territories, on the basis not of any purported Han connection, but of Tibetan Buddhist ecclesiastical influence or alleged long-standing tutelary relations with them. Ecclesiastical influence or even tutelary ties cannot signify political control of one region over another.

In any event, China has forcibly separated from Tibet two regions where Tibetan ecclesiastical jurisdiction and political control were undisputed – Amdo (the birthplace of the present Dalai Lama) and Kham. These have been incorporated into the Han provinces of Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan. Before claiming Tawang to be part of Tibet, China should first restore Amdo and Kham to Tibet and its tutelary lamas. In fact, a correct analogy to China’s expansionist territorial demands would be Saddam Hussein’s claim, following his 1990 invasion of Kuwait, to areas in Saudi Arabia on the basis of alleged Kuwaiti links to them.

When India shifted from the practical task of frontline clarification to the elusive pre-1962-style search for a border settlement on the basis of vacuous principles, it should have known that Chinese diplomacy’s forte is to enunciate elastic principles with another state and then reinterpret them later to add force to official claims.

Indeed, the history of Sino-Indian relations is largely a narrative of high-sounding principles being framed, only to lull India into a false sense of complacency.

The 1954 Panchsheel Agreement, under which India forfeited all its extraterritorial rights and privileges in Tibet without securing any quid pro quo, had defined five principles of peaceful coexistence. Yet eight years later, China carried out a full-scale invasion of India. Indeed, no sooner had that accord been signed than Beijing began laying claim to or stealthily intruding into areas south of the identified border points. Little surprise thus that the road from 1954 to 2007 is littered with shattered principles. Given that Beijing is today unwilling to accept the territorial status quo as the basis for a settlement, India needs a more nuanced, realistic and leverage-playing approach.

(The writer is a strategic affairs analyst.)

 
Copyright Times of India, 2007

Japan-India Strategic Partnership

Japan, India: natural allies

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY
Copyright: Japan Times

NEW DELHI — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, weakened by a mortifying defeat in Upper House elections, will address the Indian Parliament later this month. This is an honor that U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao did not get during their state visits to India last year. India and Japan are Asia’s largest and most-developed democracies, and the honor for Abe flows from the Indian recognition that a strategic partnership between the two is critical to the region’s power equilibrium.

Indeed, Japan has never had a head of government so interested in forging close ties with India as Abe. Even before he became prime minister last September, Abe had identified India as a pivotal partner for Japan in a book he published two months earlier. In "Toward a Beautiful Country," Abe devotes three pages to describing how Japan could advance its "national interests by strengthening our ties with India." He says: "It will not be a surprise if in another decade, Japan-India relations overtake Japan-U.S. and Japan-China ties."

It is Abe who helped expand the Australia-Japan-U.S. Trilateral Security Dialogue to include India in a separate Quadrilateral Initiative, founded on the concept of democratic peace. Abe’s predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, for his part, was instrumental in frustrating Chinese opposition and getting India, Australia and New Zealand into the East Asia Summit initiative, which is to fashion the proposed East Asian Community.

Abe’s domestic failings, however, have led to his party’s record losses in the recent elections, undermining his leadership and putting a question mark on his political survival. Abe’s ascension as prime minister had symbolized not only the generational change in Japanese politics, but also the rise of an assertive new Japan ready to flex its foreign-policy muscle.

The Upper House losses could encumber the leitmotifs of Abe’s nationalist agenda, including the proposed revision of the unique "peace constitution" that the U.S. imposed on a defeated Japan to tame a historically warrior nation. Unlike India’s frequently amended constitution, Japan has not amended its constitution even once. Yet Japanese voters have signaled that they care more about the economy than about Abe’s idea to create a "beautiful Japan" on the resurrected traditions of the Taika Reform (A.D. 645) and the Meiji Restoration (1868).

Abe’s host, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has also been weakened by his party’s losses in state elections this year. The leftist parties on whose support his wobbly coalition government depends have now raised a banner of revolt against the U.S.-India nuclear deal, issuing a diktat "not to proceed further" with the agreement. India’s opposition parties have also attacked the deal, putting Singh on the defensive.

Singh, the latest in a series of septuagenarians and octogenarians who have led India since 1989, epitomizes India’s leadership deficit. A technocrat who served as finance minister in the first half of the 1990s, Singh became prime minister in 2004 by accident when Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi declined to assume that office and nominated him instead.

As democracies, India and Japan are going to be buffeted by domestic politics. But their democratic traditions, along with a striking convergence of strategic interests in Asia and beyond, help make them natural allies. Both seek United Nations Security Council reforms and both wish to avert a unipolar Asia. In fact, few countries face such implacably hostile neighbors as India and Japan do.

In an Asia characterized by a qualitative reordering of power, the direction of the India-Japan relationship is clearly set toward closer engagement. There is neither any negative historical legacy nor a single outstanding political issue between them. Public perceptions in each country about the other state are very positive.

Many Japanese are still grateful for Justice Radha Binod Pal’s role in delivering a dissenting judgment at the 1946 Tokyo Trial for war crimes, and a commemorative plaque in his honor has been erected at the entrance to the newly renovated Yushukan Museum in the compound of the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo.

On the 62nd anniversary of the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan appeared poised for strategic doctrinal change. It remains the world’s largest economic powerhouse after the United States, with an economy still much larger than China’s but with only a tenth of the population. As Asia’s first economic success story, Japan has always inspired other Asian states. Now, with the emergence of new economic tigers and the ascent of China and India, Asia collectively is bouncing back from a 150-year decline. Asian security will be greatly shaped by relations among the region’s three main powers — China, India and Japan — and their ties to the U.S.

Booming trade alone won’t guarantee security. China is Japan’s largest trade partner, but that has not prevented Beijing from aggressively playing the history card against Tokyo. China is India’s fastest-growing trade partner, but that has not stopped it from publicly hardening its stance on the territorial disputes.

To maintain the peaceful environment that promotes security and economic growth, Japan and China, and India and China, must build stable political relations. A strong Japan, a strong China and a strong India need to find ways to reconcile their interests in Asia so that they can peacefully coexist and prosper. Never before in history have all three been strong at the same time.

In this distinct strategic triangle, if China were A, and India and Japan were B and C, the sum of B plus C will always be greater than A. That is why India and Japan are bound to become close strategic buddies, even as they attempt to ensure that their relations with Beijing do not sour.

Concerned over China’s lengthening shadow, Japan and India are bracing for a strategic challenge in the Asian heartland, not to gain preeminence but to thwart preeminence. But while Japan seeks more space on the world stage, only to be hemmed in by its security dependency on Washington, India fancies closer ties with the U.S. as a way to play a bigger global role.

For India, a strategic and economic partnership with Japan dovetails with its vision of a dynamic, multipolar Asia. That is why the August 2000 agreement during Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit to develop a "Global Partnership of the 21st Century" has been expanded to include the term, "strategic." This new "Strategic and Global Partnership," as Singh and Abe agreed last December, is to be centered on "closer political and diplomatic coordination on bilateral, regional, multilateral and global issues, comprehensive economic engagement, stronger defense relations, greater technological cooperation" and "a quantum increase" in other contacts.

The decision to add real security content is intended, as the two prime ministers admitted, "to reinforce the strategic orientation of the partnership." Defense ties are now developing with ease. All the three Japanese service chiefs visited India last year in a two-month period. With Japan dispatching more naval ships to the Indian Ocean in support of the U.S.-led "Operation Enduring Freedom," India and Japan are in a position to conduct naval exercises together at short notice.

After last year’s India-Japan exercises, Indian naval ships visited Japan’s Yokosuka base four months ago, holding trilateral maneuvers with Japanese and U.S. forces off Tokyo Bay.

Asia’s sharpening energy geopolitics also buttresses the partnership between India and Japan, both heavily dependent on oil imports by sea from the Persian Gulf region. Strategic collaboration between these two major non-Western democracies is being necessitated by mercantilist efforts to assert control over energy supplies and transport routes, as well as by strategic plans to assemble a "string of pearls" in the form of listening posts and special naval-access arrangements along vital sea lanes.

If India is to ensure that an adversarial power does not exercise undue influence over regional waterways, it needs not only to guard the "gates" to the Indian Ocean, but also to join hands with the much-larger Japanese navy.

When Abe arrives on Aug. 21, he would like to market his "Cool Earth" initiative, as part of his endeavor to fashion a collective international response to the climate crisis that has arisen due to the relentless buildup of planet-warming greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Singh, for his part, is expected to seek Japan’s support in the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group for his pet initiative — the nuclear deal with the U.S. whose future is still far from certain. But the Abe-Singh discussions are likely to transcend personal hobbyhorses and focus on long-term strategic issues.

Given that the balance of power in Asia will be determined by events as much in the Indian Ocean rim as in East Asia, India and Japan have to work together to promote peace and stability, protect critical sea lanes and stem the incipient Asian power disequilibrium.

Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, is the author of "Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India and Japan"(HarperCollins).

 
The Japan Times: Thursday, Aug. 16, 2007
(C) All rights reserved

 

Sun rises on India-Japan relationship

 

The emerging power disequilibrium in Asia makes an India-Japan partnership critical

 

A yen for closer ties

 

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY

The Hindustan Times, August 9, 2007

 

 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, weakened by a mortifying defeat in upper-house elections, will address the Indian Parliament later this month. This is an honour that US President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao did not get during visits to India last year. India and Japan are Asia’s largest and most-developed democracies, and the honour for Abe flows from the recognition that a strategic partnership between the two countries is critical to Asian power equilibrium.

 

Indeed, Japan has never had a head of government so interested in forging close ties with India as Abe. Even before he became PM last September, Abe had identified India as a pivotal partner for Japan in a book he published two months earlier. In Towards A Beautiful Country, Abe devotes three pages to describing how Japan could advance its “national interests by strengthening our ties with India”. He says: “It will not be a surprise if in another decade, Japan-India relations overtake Japan-US and Japan-China ties”.

 

It is Abe who helped expand the Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Security Dialogue to include India in a separate Quadrilateral Initiative, founded on the concept of democratic peace. Abe’s predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, was instrumental in frustrating Chinese opposition and getting India into the East Asia Summit (EAS) initiative, which is to fashion the proposed East Asian Community (EAC). Such initiatives help India to play an important player far beyond its region.

 

            Abe’s domestic failings, however, have led to his party’s record losses in the recent elections, undermining his leadership and putting a question mark on his political survival. Abe’s ascension as PM had symbolized not only the generational change in Japanese politics, but also the rise of an assertive new Japan.

 

Abe retains a comfortable majority in the lower house, but the upper-house losses could encumber the leitmotifs of his nationalist agenda, including the proposed revision of the unique “peace constitution” that the US imposed on a defeated Japan to tame a historically warrior nation. Unlike India’s frequently amended constitution, Japan has not amended its constitution even once. Yet Japanese voters have signalled that they care more about the economy than about Abe’s idea to create a “beautiful Japan” on the resurrected traditions of the Taika Reform (645 AD) and Meiji Restoration (1868).

 

            As democracies, India and Japan are going to be buffeted by domestic politics. But their democratic traditions, along with a striking convergence of strategic interests in Asia and beyond, help make them natural allies. Both seek UN Security Council reforms and both wish to avert a unipolar Asia. In fact, few countries face such implacably hostile neighbours as India and Japan do.

 

In an Asia characterized by a qualitative reordering of power, the direction of the India-Japan relationship is clearly set towards closer engagement. There is neither any negative historical legacy nor a single outstanding political issue. Public perceptions in each country about the other state are very positive. Many Japanese are still grateful for Justice Radha Binod Pal’s role in delivering a dissenting judgement at the 1946 Tokyo Trial, and a commemorative plaque in his honour has been erected at the entrance to the newly renovated Yashukan Museum, next to the controversial Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo.

 

On the 62nd anniversary of the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan appears poised for strategic doctrinal change. It remains the world’s largest economic powerhouse after the US, with an economy still much larger than China’s, but with only a tenth of the population. As Asia’s first economic-success story, Japan has always inspired other Asian states. Now, with the emergence of new economic tigers and the ascent of China and India, Asia collectively is bouncing back from nearly two centuries of decline.

Asian security will be greatly shaped by the relations between China, India and Japan, and their ties to the US. Booming trade alone won’t guarantee security. China is Japan’s largest trade partner, but that has not prevented Beijing from aggressively playing the history card against Tokyo. China is India’s fastest-growing trade partner, but that has not stopped it from publicly hardening its stance on the territorial disputes.

To maintain the peaceful environment that promotes security and economic growth, Asia’s three main powers must build stable political relations. A strong Japan, a strong China and a strong India need to find ways to reconcile their interests in Asia so that they can peacefully coexist and prosper. Never before in history have all three been strong at the same time.

 

In this distinct strategic triangle, if China were A, and India and Japan were B and C, the sum of B plus C will always will be greater than A. That is why India and Japan are bound to become close strategic buddies, even as they attempt to ensure that their relations with Beijing do not sour. But while Japan seeks more space on the world stage, only to be hemmed in by its security dependency on Washington, India fancies closer ties with the US as a way to playing a bigger global role.

 

For India, a strategic and economic partnership with Japan dovetails with its vision of a dynamic, multipolar Asia. That is why the August 2000 agreement during Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit to develop a ‘Global Partnership of the 21st Century’ has been expanded with the term, ‘strategic’. This new ‘Strategic and Global Partnership’, as Manmohan Singh and Abe agreed last December, is to be centred on “closer political and diplomatic coordination on bilateral, regional, multilateral and global issues, comprehensive economic engagement, stronger defence relations, greater technological cooperation” and “a quantum increase” in other contacts.

 

The incorporation of real security content is intended, as the two PMs admitted, “to reinforce the strategic orientation of the partnership”. Defence ties are now developing with ease. All the three Japanese service chiefs visited India last year in a two-month period. With Japan dispatching more naval ships to the Indian Ocean in support of ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’, India and Japan can conduct naval exercises at short notice. After last year’s joint exercises, Indian naval ships visited Japan’s Yokosuka base less than four months ago, holding trilateral manoeuvres with Japanese and US forces.

Asia’s sharpening energy geopolitics also buttresses the partnership between India and Japan, both heavily dependent on oil imports by sea from the Gulf region. Indo-Japanese strategic collaboration is being necessitated by mercantilist efforts to assert control over energy supplies and transport routes, as well as by strategic plans to assemble a “string of pearls” in the form of listening posts and special naval-access arrangements along vital sea-lanes. If India is to ensure that an adversarial power does not exercise undue influence over regional waterways, it needs not only to guard the ‘gates’ to the Indian Ocean, but also to join hands with the much-larger Japanese navy, Asia’s most powerful.

Given that the balance of power in Asia will be determined by events as much in the Indian Ocean rim as in East Asia, India and Japan have to work together to promote peace and stability, protect critical sea-lanes and stem the incipient Asian power disequilibrium. 

Water as a Chinese Weapon

China aims for bigger share of South Asia’s water lifeline

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY
Japan Times

Sharpening Asian competition over energy resources, driven in part by high growth rates in gross domestic product and in part by mercantilist attempts to lock up supplies, has obscured another danger: Water shortages in much of Asia are beginning to threaten rapid economic modernization, prompting the building of upstream projects on international rivers. If water geopolitics were to spur interstate tensions through reduced water flows to neighboring states, the Asian renaissance could stall.

Water has emerged as a key issue that could determine whether Asia is headed toward mutually beneficial cooperation or deleterious interstate competition. No country could influence that direction more than China, which controls the Tibetan plateau — the source of most major rivers of Asia.

Tibet’s vast glaciers and high altitude have endowed it with the world’s greatest river systems. Its river waters are a lifeline to the world’s two most-populous states — China and India — as well as to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, Cambodia, Pakistan, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. These countries make up 47 percent of the global population.

Yet Asia is a water-deficient continent. Although home to more than half of the human population, Asia has less fresh water — 3,920 cubic meters per person — than any continent besides Antarctica.

The looming struggle over water resources in Asia has been underscored by the spread of irrigated farming, water-intensive industries (from steel to paper making) and a growing middle class seeking high water-consuming comforts like washing machines and dishwashers. Household water consumption in Asia is rising rapidly, according to a 2006 U.N. report, but such is the water paucity that not many Asians can aspire to the lifestyle of Americans, who daily use 400 liters per person, or more than 2.5 times the average in Asia.

The specter of water wars in Asia is also being highlighted by climate change and environmental degradation in the form of shrinking forests and swamps, which foster a cycle of chronic flooding and droughts through the depletion of nature’s water storage and absorption cover. The Himalayan snow melt that feeds Asia’s great rivers could be damagingly accelerated by global warming.

While intrastate water-sharing disputes have become rife in several Asian countries — from India and Pakistan to Southeast Asia and China — it is the potential interstate conflict over river-water resources that should be of greater concern. This concern arises from Chinese attempts to dam or redirect the southward flow of river waters from the Tibetan plateau, where major rivers originate, including the Indus, the Mekong, the Yangtze, the Yellow, the Salween, the Brahmaputra, the Karnali and the Sutlej. Among Asia’s mighty rivers, only the Ganges starts from the Indian side of the Himalayas.

The lopsided availability of water within some nations (abundant in some areas but deficient in others) has given rise to grand ideas — from linking rivers in India to diverting the fast-flowing Brahmaputra northward to feed the arid areas in the Chinese heartland.

As water woes have been aggravated in its north due to environmentally unsustainable intensive farming, China has increasingly turned its attention to the bounteous water reserves that the Tibetan plateau holds. It has dammed rivers, not just to produce hydropower but also to channel waters for irrigation and other purposes, and is currently toying with massive interbasin and inter-river water-transfer projects.

After building two dams upstream, China is building at least three more on the Mekong, inflaming passions in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. Several Chinese projects in west-central Tibet bearing on river-water flows into India, but Beijing is loath to share information.

Following flash floods in India’s northern Himachal Pradesh state, however, China agreed in 2005 to supply New Delhi data on any abnormal rise or fall in the upstream level of the Sutlej River, on which it has built a barrage. Discussions are on to persuade it to share flood-control data during the monsoon season on two Brahmaputra tributaries, Lohit and Parlung Zangbo, as it has done since 2002 on the Brahmaputra River, which it has dammed at several places upstream.

The 10 major watersheds formed by the Himalayas and Tibetan highlands spread out river waters far and wide in Asia. Control over the 2.5 million-square-km Tibetan plateau gives China tremendous leverage, besides access to vast natural resources. Having extensively contaminated its own major rivers through unbridled industrialization, China now threatens the ecological viability of river systems tied to South and Southeast Asia in its bid to meet its thirst for water and energy.

Tibet, which existed independently up to 1950, comprises approximately one-fourth of China’s land mass today, having given Han society, for the first time in history, a contiguous frontier with India, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal.

Tibet traditionally encompassed the regions of the central plateau, Kham and Amdo. After annexing Tibet, China separated Amdo (the present Dalai Lama’s birthplace) as the new Qinghai province, made the central plateau and eastern Kham the Tibet Autonomous Region, and merged the remaining parts of Tibet into the Chinese provinces of Sichuan, Yunnan and Gansu.

The traditional Tibet is not just a distinct cultural entity but also a natural plateau, the future of whose water reserves is tied to ecological conservation. As China’s hunger for primary commodities has grown, so too has its exploitation of Tibet’s resources. And as water woes have intensified in several major Chinese cities, a group of ex-officials have championed the northward rerouting of the waters of the Brahmaputra in a book enlighteningly titled "Tibet’s Waters Will Save China."

Large hydro projects and reckless exploitation of mineral resources already threaten Tibet’s fragile ecosystems, with ore tailings beginning to contaminate water sources. Unmindful of the environmental impact of such activities in pristine areas, China has now embarked on constructing a 108-km paved road to Mount Everest, located along the Tibet-Nepal frontier. This highway is part of China’s plan to reinforce its claims on Tibet by taking the Olympic torch to the peak of the world’s tallest mountain before the 2008 Beijing Games.

As in the past, no country is going to be more affected by Chinese plans and projects in Tibet than India. The new $ 6.2 billion Gormu-Lhasa railway, for example, has significantly augmented China’s rapid military-deployment capability against India just when Beijing is becoming increasingly assertive in its claims on Indian territories. This hardline stance, in the midst of intense negotiations to resolve the 4,057-km Indo-Tibetan border, is no less incongruous than Beijing’s disinclination to set up, as agreed during its president’s state visit to New Delhi last November, a joint expert-level mechanism on interstate river waters.

Contrast China’s reluctance to establish a mechanism intended for mere "interaction and cooperation" on hydrological data with New Delhi’s consideration toward downstream Pakistan, reflected both in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (which reserves 56 percent of the catchment flow for Pakistan) and the more recent acceptance of World Bank arbitration over the Baglihar Dam project in Indian Kashmir. Yet, as if to demonstrate that if you give an inch, it takes a mile, Islamabad has now raised objections to two more Indian hydropower projects — Uri 2 and Kishanganga.

No Indian project has sought to reroute or diminish trans-border water flows, yet Pakistan insists on a say in the structural design of projects upstream in India. New Delhi permits Pakistani officials to inspect such projects. By contrast, Beijing drags its feet on setting up an innocuous interaction mechanism. Would China, under any arrangement, let Indian officials inspect its projects in Tibet or accept, if a dispute arose, third-party adjudication?

If anything, China seems intent on aggressively pursuing projects and employing water as a weapon. The idea of a Great South-North Water Transfer Project diverting river waters cascading from the Tibetan highlands has the backing of President Hu Jintao, a hydrologist who made his name through a brutal martial-law crackdown in Tibet in 1989. In crushing protesters at Tiananmen Square two months later, Deng Xiaoping actually borrowed a leaf from Hu’s Tibet book.

The Chinese ambition to channel the Brahmaputra waters to the parched Yellow River has been whetted by what Beijing touts as its engineering feat in building the giant $ 25 billion Three Gorges Dam project, which has officially displaced a staggering 1.2 million citizens. While China’s water resources minister told a Hong Kong University meeting last October that, in his personal opinion, the idea to divert waters seems not viable, the director of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee said publicly that the mega-plan enjoys official sanction and may begin by 2010.

The Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo to Tibetans) originates near Mount Kailash and, before entering India, flows eastward in Tibet for 2,200 km at an average height of 4,000 meters, making it the world’s highest major river. When two other tributaries merge with it, the Brahmaputra becomes as wide as 10 km in India before flowing into Bangladesh.

The first phase of China’s South-North Project calls for building 300 km of tunnels and channels to draw waters from the Jinsha, Yalong and Dadu rivers, on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau. Only in the second phase would the Brahmaputra waters be directed northward. In fact, Beijing has identified the bend where the Brahmaputra forms the world’s longest and deepest canyon just before entering India as holding the largest untapped reserves for meeting its water and energy needs.

While some doubts do persist in Beijing over the economic feasibility of channeling Tibetan waters northward, the mammoth diversion of the Brahmaputra could begin as water shortages become more acute in the Chinese mainland and the current $ 1.2 trillion foreign-exchange hoard brims over. The mega-rerouting would constitute the declaration of a water war on lower-riparian India and Bangladesh.

 
Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, is the author, most recently, of "Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India and Japan."

The Japan Times: Tuesday, June 26, 2007
(C) All rights reserved

China’s Rising Assertiveness: Lessons for India

Dragon Fire

1962 war wounds kept open by China’s hardline claims

The Times of India, June 7, 2007

Brahma Chellaney

China is a rising power but also an increasingly truculent state on territorial or maritime disputes with its neighbours, unable to rise above narrow considerations. Having awakened India long ago from its Nehruvian dream that good intentions are sufficient to run foreign policy, Beijing is now helping New Delhi discover how Chinese diplomacy helps underpin assertive claims and ambitions. Even as India has become more accommodating and forbearing in its dealings with China, Beijing has hardened its position on territorial issues.

China’s assertiveness is mirrored in its refusal to grant visa to any official from Arunachal Pradesh and aggressive patrolling of the still-fuzzy Himalayan frontier. In recent days, a flustered New Delhi has had to cancel a China visit by 107 elite civil servants and also respond to charges by two opposition MPs from Arunachal that Chinese forces have been nibbling at Indian territory there. In seeking to deny that claim, New Delhi has made an unusual revelation — that China maintains more than one line of control and sends regular patrols right up to the outer claimed perimeter.

Through its forcefulness on Arunachal, China is signalling that the ongoing negotiations with India cannot centre merely on border demarcation, even if both sides still call them “border talks”. Recent events indeed highlight the lack of real progress in these epic, 26-year-old negotiations.

Sharing one of the world’s longest and most rugged frontiers, India and China are the only two countries whose entire border is in dispute, without a mutually defined line of control separating them. China continues to lay claim to more Indian territories, even as it holds on to Himalayan areas it seized furtively or by conquest in the 1950s and early 1960s. It occupies one-fifth of the original state of Jammu and Kashmir.

India and China are old civilizations but new neighbours. It was the 1951 Chinese annexation of the historical buffer, Tibet, that brought Chinese troops to what is now the Sino-Indian frontier. Just 11 years later, China invaded India. Today, both countries have built a stake in maintaining the peaceful diplomatic environment on which their economic modernization and security depend. Yet the wounds of the 1962 war have been kept open by China’s publicly assertive claims to Indian territories. As long as China is unwilling to accept the status quo, it will keep alive the memory of 1962.

That China is not a status quo power, at least territorially, is evident from the way it has placed Taiwan under a permanent threat of force and asserted land and maritime claims vis-à-vis other neighbours. Its claims on India, however, involve the largest chunks of territory. Arunachal alone is more than double the size of Taiwan.

For almost half of the period they have been neighbours, India and China have pursued negotiations to resolve their territorial disputes. Since 1981, the two countries have been engaged in regular border-related talks in what is the longest and most-barren negotiating process in modern world history. Of late, however, China has pugnaciously pressed its claims. A classic instance was last November when the Chinese ambassador — backed by his foreign ministry — publicly renewed China’s claim on Arunachal, stoking an unusual diplomatic spat on the eve of President Hu Jintao’s visit to India.

Sino-Indian negotiations, although rich in symbolism, have yielded little progress for three main reasons. First, China has sought to stretch the talks to keep India under strategic pressure. It has employed negotiations as a diplomatic tool to engage India, not to reach accord. This tactic dovetails with China’s broader strategy to present a friendly face while building up its capabilities to go on the offensive.

Second, China persuaded India in 2003 to shift from the practical task of clarifying the frontline to the abstract mission of developing “principles,” “concepts” and “framework” for an overall border settlement. This shift was intended to release Beijing from its 2001 commitment to exchange maps with India of first the western sector and then of the eastern sector — a pledge it had already breached by missing the mutually agreed deadlines.

The contours of a possible settlement have been known for long — a simple trade-off involving India foregoing its claims to territories it has lost to China, in return for Beijing’s abandonment of its claims to Indian-held areas. But given its hegemonic intent, China is loath to settle on the basis of the status quo.

Third, India has needlessly retreated to a more and more defensive position, bringing itself under greater Chinese pressure. Rather than gain leverage by adopting a nuanced position on the core issue of Tibet, India continues to be overcautious in its diplomacy, even when Beijing acts antagonistically. New Delhi’s acquiescence to China’s annexation of Tibet has come to haunt it, as Chinese claims on Indian territories are openly predicated on their alleged historical or ecclesiastical links with Tibet. Seeking to territorially extend the gains from its Tibet annexation, Beijing pushes a bald principle: What is ours is ours to keep, but what is yours must be shared with us.

India can no longer shy away from making hard diplomatic choices. With an overly ambitious and revisionist China on the offensive, India needs to discriminate between appeasement and diplomacy.

The writer is a security affairs analyst.

© Times of India, 2007

Global Power Shifts

Playing the new Great Game in Asia and beyond

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY
The Japan Times

NEW DELHI — A nifty new enterprise to discuss security dangers in the Asia-Pacific and evolve a coordinated approach — the Quadrilateral Initiative — has kicked off with an unpublicized first meeting. U.S., Japanese, Indian and Australian officials, at the rank of assistant secretary of state, quietly met recently on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) gathering in Manila.

Given the qualitative reordering of power under way, with Asia boasting the world’s fastest-growing economies and fastest-rising military expenditures, it is vital to ensure strategic stability and power equilibrium. The shifts in international power — most conspicuous in Asia — are being spurred by rapid economic growth, not military triumphs.

The rise of any new world power engenders serious challenges, especially when the concerned power is opaque or harbors imperial ambitions. China’s emergence as a global player is transforming geopolitics like no other development since the time Japan rose to world-power status in the late 19th century during the Meiji Restoration. Ironically, it had been China’s failure to grasp the dramatic rise of Japan that led to its rout in 1895 in the Sino-Japanese War, opening the way to Western imperialistic expeditions into China over the subsequent decades.

Today, major powers don’t wish to make a similar mistake over China’s rapid rise. Given the new fluidity, all important players, including China, are maneuvering for strategic advantage through new equations and initiatives. Just as China, for the first time since the Ming Dynasty, is pursuing security interests and seeking allies far from its shores, other powers are working to build new equations and partnerships.

The "quad" is just one of several initiatives currently being developed in the Asia-Pacific. Yet its preliminary first meeting was not made known for fear of raising China’s hackles. If the China-India-Russia "strategic triangle" can hold high-level meetings with fanfare, why should the United States, Japan, India and Australia shy away from announcing a meeting to discuss issues of common interest and concern?

Considering that Asia is coalescing economically but becoming more divided politically, Asian security and prosperity demands cooperative relationships between the major players. This is more so because of Asia’s conflicting political and strategic cultures and weak regional institutions. Initiatives like the 26-nation ARF, the 16-state East Asia Summit (EAS) and the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum are too large and unwieldy to bear enduring results by themselves. They need to be complemented by smaller initiatives that involve the important powers in different permutations.

In that light, the quad is surely a good idea. In fact, Tokyo and New Delhi ought to also explore the establishment of Russia-India-Japan and Japan-China-India triangular initiatives. Both such initiatives, like the quad, could contribute to building strategic stability and understanding rival military doctrines in Asia.

The quad opens the path to greater strategic interaction among four major democracies. Some factors, however, need to be borne in mind. First, how the initiative shapes up will hinge on the resolution of a key issue: Will India be a Japan or an Australia to the U.S. (in other words, an ally), or will it be a strategic partner? An ally must follow the alliance leader, while in a partnership there is at least the semblance of equality.

This question won’t go away easily. Australia and Japan have not only a bilateral security treaty with America but also trilateral security arrangements. With India, the U.S. has worked out only a defense-framework agreement.

New Delhi agreed in the framework accord signed in June 2005 not only to "conclude defense transactions" and share intelligence with America, but also to participate in U.S.-directed "multinational operations" and join the U.S.-led nonproliferation regime. India, however, is going to be reluctant to outsource its security to the U.S. in any way.

It is Tokyo that pushed for India’s inclusion to turn the existing trilateral security arrangements into quadrilateral. Even before becoming Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe proposed the quad idea in his book, "Utsukushii Kunihe" (Toward A Beautiful Country), published in July. The idea was supported by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney when he visited Japan and Australia earlier this year.

Second, the quad, once it matures, would involve India in activities to which New Delhi is already committed bilaterally with the U.S. — from promotion of democracy and collaboration on homeland security to joint disaster-response operations and building greater interoperability between the armed forces. It is significant that the first quad meeting was preceded by the first-ever U.S.-Japan-India joint naval exercises.

The Indian naval ships actually first went to Okinawa for a joint maneuver with U.S. forces before taking part in the trilateral exercises off Tokyo Bay. The trilateral exercises, interestingly, intersected with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s Tokyo visit. New Delhi, however, had taken care to placate Beijing by dispatching two to three ships to China from Okinawa for a friendly exercise immediately after the bilateral maneuvers with the U.S.

Third, just because Washington, New Delhi, Canberra and Tokyo are coming together to build a four-way arrangement based on shared values and interests doesn’t mean that they intend to jointly countervail China. Such a mechanism, at best, can give the four countries extra leverage with Beijing as part of a common desire to ensure that the fast-rising Chinese power does not slide into arrogance. The fact is that for each quad member, a stable, mutually beneficial relationship with Beijing is critical to national interest.

In reality, the four have still a long way to go before they can synchronize their approaches toward China. Given their geographical proximity to China and the direct impact Chinese power and ambitions hold for them, Japan and India view power equilibrium as a more pressing imperative. In the years ahead, the two are likely to be more in sync with each other than with the U.S. and Australia on how to contend with Beijing. For the present, the growing asymmetry in power with China puts them at a disadvantage while bilaterally dealing with Beijing, making broader initiatives like the quad attractive.

U.S. strategy is geared toward maintaining a calibrated balance between strategic hedging and greater engagement with Beijing. As part of the hedging, the U.S. is interested in co-opting India, an important geopolitical swing state. But such co-option is unlikely to be at the cost of America’s closer engagement with Beijing.

After all, America now relies on Chinese savings and trade surpluses to finance its super-size budget deficits, hold down U.S. interest rates and prop up the value of the dollar. China, indeed, has become an engine for U.S. economic growth. Politically, too, the U.S. depends on Beijing’s assistance on challenges ranging from North Korea’s future to the Iranian nuclear program. Once allies of convenience during the Cold War, the U.S. and China today are partners tied by interdependence.

Australia’s extraordinary economic boom, likewise, is being driven by exports to a resource-hungry China, and Canberra is loath to take sides between Japan and China, or between China and India. Once regarded with distrust, China has gained recognition and respectability in Australia, securing in the process a controversial deal to import Australian uranium for power generation without having accepted verifiable measures of the kind India is ready to embrace against diversion for weapons purposes.

Lastly, the quad doesn’t mean that the U.S. is reversing the strategy it has maintained in the Asia-Pacific since it took the Philippines in 1898 as spoils of the naval war with Spain — counterbalancing one power against the other to reinforce America’s role as the main arbiter. As part of this continuing strategy, the U.S. has in recent years strengthened its bilateral military alliances, reconfigured its forward-deployed military forces, designated Pakistan, Thailand and the Philippines as its major non-NATO allies, and built strategic cooperation with India and Singapore.

America can live with a China that challenges India and Japan, but not one that challenges U.S. pre-eminence. To tie down China regionally, the U.S. is not averse to Japan coming out of its pacifist cocoon as a "normal" military power — but under American tutelage. The revival of the Sino-Japanese historical rivalry indeed can only help the U.S. retain its position as Asia’s strategic pivot.

Similarly, after having penalized New Delhi for more than three decades for its 1974 nuclear test through U.S.-inspired technology controls, Washington is now ready to promote India’s "normalization" as a nuclear power, but at a price: India is to bind its interests to America’s, and accept constraints on the development of its still-nascent nuclear-deterrent capability.

The quad is just one of several new initiatives intended to help shape a new international balance in response to the ongoing power shifts. It seeks not to establish a new security bloc but to evolve common thinking on shared concerns.

Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, is the author, most recently, of "Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India and Japan."

 
The Japan Times: Thursday, June 7, 2007
(C) All rights reserved

China Covets A Pearl Necklace

Dragon’s Foothold in Gwadar

Brahma Chellaney

(c) Asian Age April 7, 2007  

The newly opened deepwater port at Gwadar, Pakistan, represents China’s first strategic foothold in the Arabian Sea. Along with Beijing’s onshore and offshore strategic assets in Burma, Gwadar signifies an enlarging Chinese footprint on both the oceanic flanks of peninsula India. Add to the scene China’s agreement to build a port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka, its aid to the Bangladeshi port of Chittagong and its interest in a strategic anchor in the Maldives. What all this underscores is an emerging Chinese challenge to India’s traditional dominance in the Indian Ocean region.

The recent, little-noticed inauguration of the Gwadar port by Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf has set the stage for Gwadar’s expansion into an energy-transport hub and naval base. Describing the occasion as “a historic day,” General Musharraf announced, in the presence of Chinese Communications Minister Li Shenglin, that a modern airport also will be built at Gwadar by “our Chinese brothers.” Chinese engineers already are constructing the Gwadar naval base, scheduled to be ready in less than four years.

The Gwadar port’s first phase was completed by China ahead of schedule, and during President Hu Jintao’s visit to Islamabad last November, one of the agreements announced was titled: “Transfer of Completion Certification of Gwadar Port (Phase I) between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.” This revealed that China built the port on a turnkey basis. It has pledged more than $1 billion in grants and loan guarantees for the multiphase Gwadar project.

Gwadar, near the Iranian border, epitomizes how an increasingly ambitious Beijing, brimming with hard cash from a blazing economic growth, is building new transportation, trade, energy and naval links around India to advance its interests. Such links, whether by design or accident, strategically encircle India, constricting its options and room for manoeuvre. 

Beijing has been busily fashioning two strategic corridors on either side of India in a north-south axis — the Trans-Karakoram Corridor from western China stretching all the way down to Gwadar, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the world’s oil passes; and the Irrawaddy Corridor from Yunnan to the Bay of Bengal involving road, river and rail links through Burma, including to the Chinese-built harbours at Kyaukypu and Thilawa.  

The Irrawaddy Corridor has brought Chinese security personnel to Burmese sites close both to India’s eastern strategic assets and to the Strait of Malacca. Chinese agencies already operate electronic-eavesdropping and maritime-reconnaissance facilities on the Coco Islands — transferred by India in the 1950s to Burma, which then leased them to Beijing in 1994. The Coco Islands, however, were not the only instance of Jawaharlal Nehru’s territorial big-heartedness toward Burma. A sore point in Manipur remains the way Nehru unilaterally accepted Burmese sovereignty over the 18,000-square-kilometre Kabaw Valley in 1953. Today China operates a signals-intelligence (SIGINT) collection facility from the Great Coco Island.

A third Chinese strategic corridor is in an east-west axis in Tibet across India’s northern frontiers. The $6.2-billion railway from Gormu to Lhasa significantly boosts China’s offensive military capability against India. A railway branch southward from Lhasa to Xigatse — seat of the Panchen Lama’s Tashilhumpu monastery — is nearing completion. The People’s Liberation Army, strategically located on the roof against the Indian forces at low levels, now has the logistic capability to intensify military pressure at short notice by rapidly mobilizing up to 12 divisions.  

          Beijing intends to extend the Tibetan railway right up to the Indian frontier — to the Chumbi Valley where the borders of Sikkim, Bhutan and Tibet meet, and to the Arunachal-Burma-Tibet tri-junction. It also plans to connect with Kathmandu by rail. The Chinese efforts to use transportation routes to make strategic inroads and create an economic dependency in Nepal challenge Indian security.

            As part of this east-west corridor, China has built new military airfields along the frontier with India, and has just announced a plan to set up the world’s highest airport at Ngari, at the southwestern edge of Tibet. The Ngari prefecture has a population of only 69,000, and the airport will play a largely military role in reinforcing Chinese capabilities in the captured Aksai Chin region, where China maintains an outer and inner line of control against India. The new railway allows China to rail-base in Tibet some of its intercontinental ballistic missiles, such as its latest DF-31A, a rail-mobile weapon.

China’s incremental efforts to build a “string of pearls” along the Indian Ocean rim symbolize its fourth strategic corridor — and the advent of a challenge to India from the south. This “string of pearls” — a term first used in a report for the Pentagon by defence contractor Booz Allen Hamilton — is sought to be assembled through forward listening posts, naval-access agreements and Chinese-built harbours stretching from Pakistan and Sri Lanka to Bangladesh and Burma. The Chinese interest in the Indian Ocean rim now extends up to the Seychelles, which the visiting Hu Jintao two months ago called “a shining pearl in the Indian Ocean,” as if to corroborate his country’s string-of-pearls scheme.

Such is Gwadar’s vantage location that it is central both to the string of pearls and the Trans-Karakoram Corridor. Gwadar is being linked by road to the Chinese-built Karakoram Highway — an emblem of the long-standing Sino-Pakistan nexus. With the Chinese-aided Gwadar-Dalbandin project extending the railway up to Rawalpindi, Beijing has begun a technical study about building a railroad from Pakistan to Kashgar through the Khunjerab Pass, in parallel to the Karakoram Highway.

Gwadar’s transformation from a sleepy fishing village to a strategic centre and boomtown has been rapid. In his March 20 port opening, Musharraf thanked China for dramatically changing Gwadar “where five to six years back there was nothing except for sand and dust.”   

China has acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the Karakoram Highway. In fact, the largest Chinese economic-information portal called Gwadar “China’s biggest harvest” and boasted that Beijing enjoys “relatively large control” there. China’s role in developing Gwadar is as strategically significant as its well-documented part in arming Pakistan with nuclear-weapon and missile capabilities. By linking Gwadar with the Karakoram Highway and by planning to build an oil pipeline from Gwadar to its restive Xinjiang province, China actually is seeking to reap a strategic-multiplier effect.  

One component of China’s plan is to make Gwadar a major hub transporting Gulf and African oil by pipeline to the Chinese heartland via Xinjiang. Such piped oil would not only cut freight costs and supply time but also lower China’s reliance on US-policed shipping lanes through the Malacca and Taiwan Straits. Pakistan has already signed a memorandum of understanding for “studies to build the energy corridor to China.” Beijing is also setting up a similar energy corridor through Burma involving oil and gas pipelines, with Chinese firms now developing a major port at Sitwe, the capital of Rakhine province.

The past is a testament to how Chinese projects in India’s periphery progressively assume strategic and military colour after originally having been touted as purely commercial. A classic case is the Karakoram Highway, which has served as a passageway through occupied Kashmiri territories for covert Chinese nuclear and missile transfers and other military aid to Pakistan.

As the practitioner of a Sun Tzu-style balance-of-power strategy aimed at averting the rise of a peer rival in Asia and engaging the world on its own terms, China blurs the line between commercial and military interests. Its investments in ports in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been driven largely by strategic considerations. Indeed its $475-million investment in Hambantota is bereft of even the fig-leaf of commercial interest. 

Just as China has furthered its military interests in Burma behind a commercial veil, it values Gwadar for the major strategic advantages that port holds despite its location in insurgency-wracked Baluchistan. Even after four Chinese engineers were killed in two separate guerrilla attacks in 2004, China did not slow down the construction. Gwadar — half the distance from Kashgar than Shanghai — provides much-closer access to the sea from China’s landlocked, sparsely-populated Xinjiang province, which is twice the size of Pakistan. 

Beijing sees Gwadar as providing a more-secure corridor for energy imports, given its fears that in the event of a strategic confrontation, its resource-hungry economy could be held hostage by hostile naval forces through the interdiction of oil shipments. Gwadar, along with Sitwe, would help reduce China’s reliance on the Strait of Malacca, through which 80 per cent of Chinese oil imports now pass. By deciding to substantially widen the Karakoram Highway and upgrade it as an all-weather passageway, China also plans to export and import goods through Gwadar. 

But while keen to develop it as a major trade and energy hub, Beijing has no intention of forsaking its ambition to use Gwadar for naval and other strategic purposes, including to project Chinese power in the Indian Ocean rim and the Gulf region. Gwadar, however, is essentially a product of Pakistan’s drive for strategic depth vis-à-vis India. The Indian navy’s 1971 blockade of Karachi led Pakistan to consider ways to mitigate its naval vulnerability. By mid-2000, Pakistan had built a small naval base at Ormara, located between Karachi and Gwadar. But once the work is complete on a base at Gwadar — protected by cliffs from three sides — India will be in no position to bottle up the Pakistan navy in 1971 style.

How quickly Gwadar has come up can be seen from the fact that its cornerstone was laid by Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Bangguo only in March 2002 — ironically four months after the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. The US military operations from the Pakistani airbases at Jacobabad in Sind and Pasni in Baluchistan, however, encouraged Beijing to successfully seek from Islamabad advance “sovereign guarantees” to use Gwadar facilities. Just before Musharraf opened Gwadar, the contract to run the port was awarded to PSA International of Singapore, with which Beijing enjoys close ties. 

In addition to a naval base, Gwadar is to house a modern air-defence unit, a military garrison, a large Chinese-built refinery and petroleum-storage facilities. Already home to an incipient Chinese listening post, Gwadar is a central link in the emerging chain of Chinese forward-operating facilities around India. Situated next to the world’s busiest oil-shipping lanes, Gwadar is a likely port of call and refuelling point for the rapidly modernizing Chinese navy. More than arming Pakistan with critical strategic depth, Gwadar potentially opens the way to the arrival of Chinese submarines in India’s backyard in the coming years.

            For China, Gwadar is a key maritime outpost to monitor developments in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf and to keep an eye on Indian and US naval patrols, including the naval bases in western India and the large American base at Diego Garcia, whose importance for US regional military strategy is set to rise after the Iraq debacle. 

 

The Baluchi insurrection, however, instils uncertainty about Gwadar’s future, with the new port already stoking the nationalist fire. Such is the threat that Musharraf, in his port-opening speech, was constrained to warn insurgents to “surrender their weapons and stop creating hurdles in the progress of Baluchistan” or be “wiped out.”  

China’s rise as an oil importer since 1994 and its more-recent voracious craving for energy resources have served as justification for its growing emphasis on the seas and its plans to build a blue-water navy. Its energy drive and desire to safeguard vital sea lanes, however, dovetail with its strategic efforts to build a string of pearls. For long, it has worked to box in India. 

The planned energy corridors on either side of India symbolize China’s mercantilist efforts to assert control — at New Delhi’s expense — over oil and gas assets and monopolize transport routes. That has been underlined by the way state-run Chinese companies, with their deep pockets and ruthless tactics, have signed energy deals in Iran and Burma, including to source gas from two partly Indian-owned Burmese blocks.

Not content with the six offshore and five onshore gas blocks it has already awarded to China, the Burmese junta now has chosen Beijing over New Delhi for selling the gas from the two fields where two Indian state-owned firms together hold a 30 per cent stake. A March 14 MoU with Beijing says Burma will sell to China “the entire natural gas” from the partly Indian-owned A-1 and A-3 blocks in the western Rakhine offshore region. The gas will be shipped through a 2,380-kilometre pipeline from Kyaukypu, on the Bay of Bengal, to Rili in Yunan. And in return, China will pay an annual transit fee of $150 million for 30 years for the pipeline’s 990-kilometre stretch through Burma.

India’s ability to avert the emergence of a Beijing-oriented Asia will hinge on its success in retaining its domination in the Indian Ocean. A China that expands its presence in the Indian Ocean and exerts increasing influence over the regional waterways and over Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Nepal will pave the way for a Sino-centric Asia and for a greater strategic squeeze of India. 

Pakistan, of course, is not averse to a Sino-centric Asia and indeed would like China to complete its strategic encirclement of India. After all, China has been Pakistan’s “all-weather” ally, with their friendship billed as “taller than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans.” Pakistan not only welcomes China’s maritime ambitions but also views Gwadar’s Chinese connection as essential to break India’s domination in the Indian Ocean.

Even so, India should leave Beijing in no doubt that using Gwadar for military purposes would be a serious escalation of Chinese containment and counterproductive, increasing strategic friction and rivalry and undermining prospects for interstate energy cooperation. 

The main reason India has come under increasing Chinese pressure is its retreat to a more and more defensive position. If India is to keep the Chinese navy out of its backyard, it has to start exerting naval power at chokepoints critical to its strategic interests. If India does not guard the various gates to the Indian Ocean — through its exercise of power and through strategic partnerships with key players — it will confront the Chinese navy in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

http://203.197.197.71/presentation/leftnavigation/opinion/op-ed/dragon’s-foothold-in-gwadar.aspx

(c) Asian Age, 2007 

Time for India to Draw the Line With China

 
Will India-China border talks ever end?

(c) Japan Times

For 25 years, India has been seeking to settle by negotiation with China the disputed Indo-Tibetan frontier. Yet, not only have the negotiations yielded no concrete progress on a settlement, but they also have failed so far to remove even the ambiguities plaguing the long line of control.

Beijing has been so loath to clearly define the 4,057-km frontline that it suspended the exchange of maps with India several years ago. Consequently, India and China remain the only countries in the world not separated by a mutually defined frontline. By contrast, the Indo-Pakistan frontier is an international border, except in Kashmir, where there is a line of control that has been both clearly defined and delineated.

Every round of Sino-Indian border negotiations ends in predictable fashion — with warm handshakes and a promise to meet again. But after a quarter century of unrewarding negotiations with Beijing, India ought to face up to the reality that it is being taken round and round the mulberry bush by an adversarial state that has little stake in an early border resolution.

The more the talks have dragged on, the less Beijing has appeared interested in resolving the border disputes other than on its terms. In the period since 1981, China has realized a tectonic shift in its favor by rapidly building up its economic and military power. While keeping India engaged in sterile border talks, China has strengthened its negotiating leverage through its illicit nuclear and missile transfers to Pakistan and strategic penetration of Myanmar.

Today, Beijing gives the impression that an unresolved, partially indistinct border fits well with its interests. Indeed, it sees a strategic benefit in keeping hundreds of thousands of Indian troops pinned down along the Himalayas, thus ensuring that they will not be available against China’s "all-weather ally," Pakistan. This is the "third party whose interests China cannot disregard," as a Chinese official divulged at a "Track 2" dialogue that this writer co-organized in Beijing a few years ago. An unsettled border also endows China with the option to turn on the military heat along the now-quiet frontier if India plays the Tibet card or enters into a military alliance with the United States.

More importantly, China is sitting pretty on the upper Himalayan heights, having got what it wanted — by furtive encroachment or by conquest. It definitely sees no reason to strategically assist a potential peer competitor by lifting pressure on the borders through an amicable settlement.

Given these realities, India’s top priority from 1981 to 2002 was to get the line of control fully clarified while remaining open to any Chinese proposal for a complete border settlement. The accompanying confidence-building measures (CBM) were premised on the elimination of frontline ambiguities to help stabilize the military situation on the ground. But the process of adopting CBMs has advanced much faster than the parallel process of defining and delineating the frontline, farcically called "the line of actual control."

In 1996, the two countries, for example, signed a CBM prohibiting specific military activities at precise distances from a still-blurry frontline. That accord required the two countries, among other things, not to fly combat aircraft "within 10 kilometers of the line of actual control" (Article V.2) and not to "conduct blast operations within 2 kilometers of the line" (Article VI). The reality, though, is that there is no agreed frontline on maps, let alone on the ground.

It took two full decades of border talks before China agreed to exchange maps with India of even one border sector. In 2001, the Chinese and Indian sides exchanged maps showing each other’s military positions in the least-controversial middle sector. China then committed itself to an exchange of maps of the western sector in 2002 and the eastern sector in early 2003. The completion of an exchange of maps showing each other’s currently held military positions was intended — without prejudice to rival territorial claims — to define where actual control lay. Through such clarification of the frontline, the two sides intended to proceed toward mutual delineation on maps and perhaps even demarcation on the ground, pending a final settlement.

After the first exchange in 2001, however, China went back on its commitment, creating an impasse in the talks. Having broken its word, Beijing insisted that the two sides abandon years of laborious efforts to define the frontline and focus instead on finding an overall border settlement. That move clearly appeared to be a dilatory tactic intended to disguise its breach of promise.

If Beijing is not willing to take an elementary step of clarifying the frontline, why would it be willing to take far-bigger action to resolve the festering border problem through a package settlement? A final border settlement would be a complex process demanding not only a full resolution of the claims that involve large chunks of territory but also the demarcation of a clear-cut frontier.

The idea of a "package" settlement is not new. China began peddling that even before its 1962 invasion of India — as a red herring to divert attention from its aggressive designs. Since 1981, it has raised the same idea from time to time. But, to date, it has not once put forward a concrete proposal for consideration. If anything, the border talks have revealed that Beijing is not willing to settle on the basis of the status quo. This is manifest from its laughable claim to India’s Tawang region — as an extension of its annexation of Tibet.

Yet, during his 2003 Beijing visit, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee sought to propitiate China on two separate fronts: He formally recognized Tibet as "part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China," completing the process of India sacrificing its northern buffer; and he gave in to the Chinese demand to switch the focus of the border talks from frontline clarification to the elusive search for a package settlement. His concession to the hosts not only stalled the process of clarifying the frontline but also has taken India back to square one — to discussing the "principles" and "basic framework" of a potential settlement.

The two negotiating teams are now engaged in giving meaning to and implementing the six abstract principles trumpeted as another "breakthrough" in April 2005 during the New Delhi visit of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. The focus of the talks now, as admitted by both sides, is on applying the principles to devise a "basic framework" for negotiations. In other words, the two sides are still not close to actually discussing any package-settlement idea.

India needs to reflect on the wisdom of the course it has pursued. It not only rewarded Beijing in 2003 for an act of bad faith but also has played into its hands by switching from the practical task of clarifying the frontline to a conceptual enunciation of vacuous principles and a new framework for talks. A known strength of Chinese diplomacy is to discuss and lay out principles, and then interpret them to suit Beijing’s convenience, as India found out bitterly after signing the 1954 Panchsheel (Five Principles) agreement.

If New Delhi really believes in the maxim that good fences make good neighbors, it is time for it to draw the line, at least in the negotiations. But first it needs to re-evaluate the very utility of staying absorbed in a never-ending process that jibes well with Beijing’s India policy of engagement with containment.

 

Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, is a regular contributor to The Japan Times.
 
(c) Japan Times, 2006

When China Invaded India

The 1962 Chinese Invasion

 

Brahma Chellaney

(c) Hindustan Times 

At sunrise on October 20, 1962, China’s People’s Liberation Army invaded India with overwhelming force on two separate flanks – in the west in Ladakh, and in the east across the McMahon Line in the then North-East Frontier Agency.  The Chinese aggression, and the defeat and humiliation it wreaked on an unprepared India, remain deeply embedded in the Indian psyche.

            India was taken completely unawares by the invasion.  This reflected political naivete on its part.  It also bared a woefully flawed intelligence network that failed to pick up the movement of heavy artillery and other Chinese military activity along the Himalayan frontier in the months ahead.  The invasion of India was carefully planned well in advance and came after extended military preparations, including the improvement of logistics and the movement of heavy artillery from opposite Taiwan to Tibet, where PLA had since its annexation maintained infantry troops in large numbers to suppress the local population without the need to induct heavy weaponry.  That began to change by the spring of 1962, but Indian intelligence remained horrifically oblivious.

Decades later, some gnawing issues stand out.  One relates to the timing of the invasion masterminded by Mao Zedong.  The aggression was executed cunningly to coincide with the Cuban missile crisis that brought the United States and Soviet Union within a whisper of nuclear war. 

The timing, which precluded the possibility of India getting any immediate outside help, was made doubly favourable by two other developments – an American promise earlier in July to hold Taiwan from initiating hostilities across the straits that enabled China to single-mindedly mobilise against India, and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev’s subtle yet discernible tilt towards Beijing on the Sino-Indian border issue in an apparent effort to buy Chinese support in the looming Soviet confrontation with the United States.

            Two key interrelated questions need to be addressed. Why did Mao order the invasion?  And having captured most of the forward Indian military posts in both sectors in the first wave of assaults, why did Beijing carry out a second, more vicious round of attacks after a gap of three weeks?  Mao had several objectives on his mind in turning border skirmishes into a full-fledged war.  None was military.

            Mao’s aims were mainly political.  The military objectives had largely been achieved in the earlier years through furtive PLA encroachments that had, for example, brought Aksai Chin under Chinese control.  The PLA – not an independent power centre then – was merely an instrument to help Mao accomplish his political objectives in 1962.  Roderick MacFarquhar, in the third and final volume of his masterwork, The Origins of the Cultural Revolution, published in 1997, aptly calls the aggression “Mao’s India War”. 

            The first political objective was to humiliate India, China’s Asian rival.  Mao was determined to cut India to size and to undermine what India represented – a pluralistic, democratic model for the developing world that seemingly threatened China’s totalitarian political system. 

The PLA’s military adventure against India was clearly punitive in nature, a judgement reinforced by Premier Zhou Enlai’s ready admission that it was intended “to teach India a lesson” – a lesson India has not forgotten to this day.  The second wave of assaults was designed to heap ignominy by soundly thrashing India.  Such have been the long-lasting effects of the humiliation it imposed that China to this day is able to keep India in check, despite transferring weapons of mass destruction to Pakistan and opening a new strategic front through Myanmar.

            Another aim of Mao was to wreck the image of Nehru, who until then had been a towering figure on the international stage and an icon in many parts of the developing world.  Nehru stood diminished and demolished by November 1962.  Defeat, especially decisive defeat, usually turns a statesman into a beaten, worn-out politician and shatters a nation’s international standing.  The crushing rout, in fact, hastened Nehru’s death. 

            But more than Mao, it was Nehru who contributed to his own disgrace by blundering twice on China.  His first blunder was to shut his eyes to the impending fall of Tibet even when Sardar Patel had repeatedly cautioned him in 1949 that the Chinese communists would annex that historical buffer as soon as they installed themselves in Beijing.  An overconfident Nehru, who ran foreign policy as if it were personal policy, went to the extent of telling Patel by letter that it would be a “foolish adventure” for the Chinese Communists to try and gobble up Tibet – a possibility that “may not arise at all” as it was, he claimed, geographically impracticable!

            In 1962, Nehru, however, had to admit he had been living in a fool’s paradise.  “We were getting out of touch with reality in the modern world and we were living in an artificial atmosphere of our creation,” he said in a national address after the Chinese aggression.

Nehru had ignored India’s military needs despite the Chinese surreptitiously occupying Indian areas on the basis of Tibet’s putative historical ties with them, and setting up a land corridor to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir through Aksai Chin.  Although Indian military commanders after the 1959 border clashes and casualties began saying that they lacked adequate manpower and weapons to fend off the PLA, Nehru ordered the creation of forward posts to prevent the loss of further Indian territory without taking the required concomitant steps to beef up Indian military strength, including through arms imports.  Nehru had convinced himself grievously that the Chinese designs were to carry out further furtive encroachments on Indian territory, not to launch major aggression. 

            A third objective of Mao was to undermine India’s non-aligned status.  No sooner the PLA began the first wave of assaults than an unnerved Nehru appealed to the United States for military help.  He implored that Washington grant military aid without insisting on a formal alliance.  But no U.S. military aid came while the Chinese were still attacking India.  Kennedy waited until Khrushchev’s capitulation over missiles in Cuba before sending Nehru a letter promising “support as well as sympathy”. 

When the PLA launched the second series of attacks, the U.S. carrier force, USS Enterprise, steamed not towards the East or South China Sea but towards the Bay of Bengal to serve as a psychological prop to the besieged Indians.  John Kenneth Galbraith wrote in his memoirs, Ambassador’s Journal, that he had, as U.S. Ambassador to India, recommended the despatch of the aircraft carrier to ease Indian nerves.

Once Beijing declared a unilateral cease-fire, the issue of U.S. arms sales to India got caught in the perennial and still-prevalent U.S. demand – that New Delhi open talks with Pakistan on Kashmir – forcing the Nehru government to hold five rounds of futile discussions with Islamabad as a quid pro quo for receiving low-line American arms.  The Chinese aggression was seen in Washington as creating an opportunity for what America has always desired and still seeks to pursue – closer and better ties with India while maintaining old bonds with Pakistan – to help promote ‘regional stability’, a euphemism for subcontinental balance.    

            A fourth objective of Mao, who had been seething over Nehru’s grant of sanctuary to the Dalai Lama and his followers, was to effectively cut off India’s age-old historical ties with Tibet.  In one stroke, all outside links with Tibet – religious, temporal, cultural, medicinal and trade – collapsed.  This meant that Tibetans could no longer maintain their ancient ties with Gaya, Sarnath, Sanchi and other seats of monasteries, and that Indians no longer had access to Mansorovar Lake and Mount Kailash.

            Fifthly, the war came handy to Mao for domestic politics.  At a time when China’s economic calamities, including famines, and Mao’s insistence on a domestic class struggle were spurring grassroots problems, the swiftness and brute power with which he managed to teach India a lesson not only boosted China’s image internationally, but also helped him to politically consolidate at home.  Success, after all, has a thousand fathers, while defeat leaves an orphan.

            What Indian policy did not appreciate then and has yet to come to terms with is that the invasion was triggered more by a Chinese ambition to dominate Asia than by a territorial dispute.  In that sense, 1962 represented far more than the loss of national pride or territory for India; it meant the beginning of an undeclared war for pre-eminence in Asia – a raging war in which India has steadily lost ground, with China making inroads into even the traditional spheres of Indian influence, including Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

            For Mao, it was a victory for the asking, because the Indian leadership had made no effort to plug the glaring vulnerabilities in the defence of India.  In true Sun Tsu style, however, Mao waited for the right time to strike, invading India when it least expected to be attacked.  The PLA’s preparations to invade India started after 1959 but were camouflaged in the form of extended border negotiations that Beijing held with New Delhi.

Border negotiations with India were employed not only to feign reasonableness but, more importantly, to buy time for military consolidation and to bide time for the right opportunity to strike.  The building of border roads after 1959 was indicative of the Chinese efforts to upgrade military logistics along the mighty Himalayas.

In the same vein, the current series of largely fruitless border talks since 1981 – the longest continuing inter-state negotiations in post-World War II history – serve as a cover for China to pursue containment of India with engagement. 

Also, in a fashion reminiscent of the current Beijing approach to depict all Chinese actions as defensive and peaceful, Mao sought to paint India as the provoker with its ‘forward policy’ – a line of reasoning lapped up by some biased Western analysts, particularly a self-confessed Maoist, British journalist Neville Maxwell, who contended in his book, India’s China War, that it was India that had been the aggressor.

When the PLA marched hundreds of miles south to annex Tibet and establish a Sino-Indian military frontier for the first time in history, that was supposedly not expansionist or forward policy.  But when the Indian Army belatedly sought to set up posts along its unmanned frontier in Ladakh to try and stop further Chinese land grabs, this was christened ‘forward policy’ and dubbed provocative!

The Indian predilection for talk rather than action was on brazen display in the run-up to the 1962 war.  This was best illustrated by Nehru’s offhand remarks to reporters while leaving for Colombo on October 12: “Our instructions are to free our territory.  I cannot fix the date, that is entirely for the Army”.  Such loose talk was a god-send to the Chinese communists to fix the date for their attack.

            Mao needed no Indian provocation to launch a military attack.  He was provoked by his own logic to defeat the alternative model that India represented and the ideas and principles that Nehru symbolised.  Had India not started building forward posts, Mao would have found some other pretext to attack India.

In fact, Nehru, the architect of the Hindi-Chini bhai bhai festivity, had gone out of his way to propitiate communist China, accepting even the Chinese annexation of Tibet in a 1954 agreement without settling the Indo-Tibetan border.  While Nehru thought he had bought peace with China by accepting Chinese rule over Tibet on the basis of his doctrine of panchshila, or the five principles of peaceful co-existence, Mao and his team read this both as a sign of India’s weakness and a licence to encroach on strategically important areas of Ladakh.

Not only did the Nehru government cling to the belief that China was a benign neighbour despite the 1959 border clashes, its thinking and policy also precluded the defence of India on the Kautilyan principle that to maintain peace, a nation had to be ready to defend peace. 

Official policy had steadfastly refused to consider China to be a military threat, let alone to adopt counter-measures against the threat.  Forward posts were created not to militarily assert India’s claims by positioning troops at vantage points but to affirm a political line.  It was for reason that these posts were thinly manned and often on low ground in direct contravention of military logic.  In fact, the yawning mismatch between the officially encouraged perception of China and the ‘benign’ neighbour’s brutal aggression added to the severity of the shock that battered India.

So betrayed was Nehru by Mao’s war that he had this to say on the day the Chinese invaded: “Perhaps there are not many instances in history where one country has gone out of her way to be friendly and cooperative with the government and people of another country and to plead their cause in the councils of the world, and then that country returns evil for good”.

Four decades later, India has not forgotten the central lesson it was taught by Mao.  India’s rise as a military power with independent nuclear and missile capabilities is the consequence of a lesson learned.  Had the debacle not set in motion India’s military modernisation and reform of its defence techniques and strategies, India would not have fared well against Pakistan in the 1965 and 1971 wars.  In fact, without the post-1962 military buildup, it could well have lost the Kashmir valley to Pakistan in 1965.  However, with foreign policy still being shaped by personal predilections and idiosyncrasies rather than by institutional processes, India continues to repose faith in adversaries and then cries foul when they deceive it, as Kargil showed. 

 

II

A Question of Timing 

Brahma Chellaney

Mao directed two double-front attacks on India within a span of about a month.  In the style recommended by ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu who authored the treatise, The Art of War, Mao chose an exquisite time for perpetrating a ‘Himalayan Pearl Harbour’ against India.

The first wave of assaults on Indian border positions in Ladakh and NEFA began on October 20, 1962, five days after the CIA formally determined the presence of medium-range ballistic missiles in Cuba on October 15 through reconnaissance photographs taken the previous day, triggering a major U.S. showdown with Moscow. 

A day before the PLA launched the attacks on India, Radio Moscow was citing U.S. naval manoeuvres in the Caribbean as preparations for an invasion of Cuba.  And the day the Chinese forces came pouring across the Himalayas, U.S. President John F. Kennedy had already put into effect a naval quarantine of Cuba.  By the time the Chinese halted their weeklong incursions into NEFA, while continuing to pick and target Indian posts in Aksai Chin, the Cuban missile crisis had brought the world to the edge of a nuclear Armageddon.

            Not content with the PLA’s battlefield victories against the outnumbered and outgunned Indian forces, Mao decided to launch a second wave of military assaults on India while the Americans and Russians were still embroiled in the Cuban crisis.  The threat of a nuclear holocaust had eased after Khrushchev gave in on October 28 and agreed to withdraw the nuclear-armed missiles from Cuba.  But the missile crisis was still lingering, with troops in Cuban military uniform taking up positions around the Soviet missile sites and strongman Fidel Castro refusing UN on-site inspections in Cuba as well as the withdrawal of Il-28 bombers.

            Making the most of the continuing global preoccupation with the Cuban missile crisis, and rushing to capitalise further before the abating crisis wound up, Mao employed the PLA for a second round of two-front attacks on India starting on November 18, a day before Castro gave in to the withdrawal of Il-28s. 

So scared were Indian policy-makers by a self-created fear that Calcutta would be bombed that they did not employ their superior air force against the invading Chinese, ignorant as they were of the fact that China had only one or two airfields in Tibet and that its fighter aircraft (including Ilyushin 24) were distinctly inferior to India’s British-made Hunters.  Had India employed its offensive air power, it could have overcome its tactical disadvantage of lacking artillery in Ladakh and been in a position to hit hard the foot and mule columns of the Chinese in the Tawang area.  But New Delhi was possessed by an irrational fear of Chinese retaliation against Indian cities – a fear that created a sense of panic in Calcutta.

According to Colonel Anil Athale, who has co-authored the official history of the aggression, “the best-kept secret of the 1962 border war is that a large part of the non-military supplies needed by the Chinese reached them via Calcutta!  Till the very last moment, border trade between Tibet and India went on though Nathu La in Sikkim.  For the customs in Calcutta, it was business as usual and no one thought to pay any attention to increased trade as a battle indicator.”

And such was the panic in New Delhi to the advancing Chinese columns in NEFA that Jawaharlal Nehru thought the fall of the plains of Assam was imminent and pretty nearly said good-bye to the people there in a national broadcast.  On the evening of November 19, as the Army’s 4 Corps began preparations to pull out from Tezpur, a panic-stricken move that triggered the collapse of the local administration by the following day, Nehru told the nation: “Huge Chinese armies are marching into the northeast of India … yesterday we lost Bomdila, a small town in Kameng division. .. my heart goes out to the people of Assam”.  Till this day, Assamese extremists cite Nehru’s ‘abandonment’ of Assam to stir up secessionist sentiment.  

But on November 21, coinciding with Kennedy’s formal termination of Cuba’s quarantine, Beijing announced a unilateral ceasefire and its intent to withdraw from NEFA while keeping the gains on the west.  The first U.S. emergency military supplies to India began arriving by November 24 while the Chinese withdrawal from India’s northeast started from December 1.  Mao knew it would not be wise to continue waging war on India after the United States was free from the Cuban missile crisis.

Copyright: The Hindustan Times, 2002